Spot Plays for 2024 British Champions Day at Ascot

It's not quite the Breeders' Cup, but Saturday's British Champions Day program at Ascot has itself evolved into an annually intriguing handicapping and betting test.

The two primary drivers are the state of the ground, which is often not good, and uncertainty about whose form will hold up best at the end of a long season.

Depending on how next Saturday's Futurity Trophy (G1) at Doncaster shapes up, this might be the last of my British racing blogs for 2024. I've definitely taken lumps this year, especially by including a bankroll, but it's all a learning experience, win or lose. I look forward to repeating the exercise, and a clean slate, beginning in April 2025.

The bankroll, which started at $1,000, stands at $376.90. I will wager 5% of the outstanding balance on the following plays.

Race 2: British Champions Sprint (G1), 8:55 a.m. ET

Whose turn is it? That's generally the question to ask when handicapping the major sprints in Europe.

You can make a plausible case for at least half of this field of 20. But then you also have to worry about the other half. Consider that #2 Art Power won this race at 40-1 last year.

He's far from the classiest horse in the field, but #1 Annaf (20-1) does have winning course-and-distance experience and seems to handle soft-to-heavy ground fine. More intriguingly, he's entering this race in the third start of his form cycle after a long break.

After a productive fall and winter during which he captured the Portland H. at Doncaster, the Bengough (G3) at Ascot, and a Group 2 in Saudi Arabia in late February, Annaf was not seen again until the Sprint Cup (G1) at Haydock on Sept. 7. Finishing as if he needed one (15th of 16), he took a step forward last time in the World Trophy (G3) at Newbury, finishing 1 1/4 lengths third on heavy ground over a five-furlong trip that was probably a tad short for him.

Class-wise, Annaf makes less sense than several others. But the rule in these kind of races is to expect the unexpected. He's priced fairly at or around 20-1, and I'll be giving him a chance to make notable headway in the latter stages of this six-furlong slog.

Race 3: British Champions Fillies & Mares (G1), 9:35 a.m. ET

#3 Queen of the Pride (8-1) was a filly on the rise over the summer when she earned back-to-back wins in the Lester Piggott (G3) and the Lancashire Oaks (G2), both over this 1 1/2-mile distance at Haydock. Unfortunately, all that good work came undone in the Yorkshire Oaks (G1), when she trailed the field of eight by 25 lengths after being well backed at 10-3.

"I thought she could win the Yorkshire Oaks and she just wasn't healthy and right on the day," jockey Oisin Murphy said recently. "I've ridden her a few times since, and I think she is primed and ready to go."

This is certainly not the deepest renewal of this race, given who is at or near the top of the market. Queen of the Pride remains with upside and looks a capable bounce-back candidate at the price.

It's also worth noting that winning on British Champions Day has been the family business. Her sire Roaring Lion won the 2018 Queen Elizabeth II (G1), while her dam Simple Verse won this very race in 2015.

As far as other opinions on the card, Trawlerman perhaps could upset the odds-on Kyprios again in the opening Long Distance Cup (G2). Kyprios' win two weeks ago in the Prix du Cadran (G1) wasn't as visually impressive as some of his other triumphs this year, so this might be the chance to catch him at what might be his weakest moment of the season.

Trawlerman couldn't outstay Kyprios in the 2 1/2-mile Gold Cup (G1) at Ascot, but this two miles might be more in his wheelhouse. However, Trawlerman's task is made more difficult having not had an interim start since the Gold Cup in June.

Heavy favorite Charyn, generally Europe's best older miler in what has been a weak division this season, is the horse to beat in the Queen Elizabeth II. I wouldn't be surprised if he won or was upset, but I don't have a fondness for anyone in particular to pull the latter off.

The 1 1/4-mile Champion (G1) is billed as a showdown between the three-year-olds Economics and Calandagan. Neither offers much betting value at this writing, but for the record I'll be siding with Calandagan, given his effort last time against City of Troy in the Juddmonte International (G1).