Spot plays for Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Keeneland

Picks and plays for three races on Breeders’ Cup Saturday at Keeneland.

Race 2: Lafayette S. (10:45 a.m. ET)

#3 Absolutely Aidan (10-1) didn’t get the cleanest trip in Keeneland’s 6-furlong Phoenix (G3) last month.

Absolutely Aidan broke cleanly from the rail but was beaten to the lead and seemed uncomfortable behind horses. After he dropped back to last place by a wide margin, Absolutely Aidan started to gain significant ground around the turn and down the homestretch, but he ran into traffic at the sixteenth pole and settled for fifth place, 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner.

Absolutely Aidan previously won Ellis Park’s 6 1/2-furlong Good Lord S. with a strong 101 Brisnet Speed rating.

A return to frontrunning tactics can send Absolutely Aidan to the winner’s circle at a nice price.

$10 to win on #3 Absolutely Aidan
$10 to place on #3 Absolutely Aidan
Total: $20

Race 6: Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1, 1:18 p.m. ET)

#5 Knicks Go (7-2) was good enough to finish second in the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), but he has elevated his game to a new level since he was transferred to trainer Brad Cox.

On Oct. 4, Knicks Go returned from a 7 1/2-month layoff to obliterate five rivals in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Keeneland, where he won by 10 1/4 lengths in the track-record time of 1:40.79.

The 110 Brisnet Speed rating Knicks Go posted tops the Dirt Mile field, and his affinity for racing around two turns is an advantage, compared to morning-line favorite #10 Complexity (2-1), who has been competing in one-turn events.

A win bet will be our first order of business, but we’ll also play Knicks Go over Blue Grass (G2) winner #1 Art Collector (6-1) and Pacific Classic (G1) runner-up #2 Sharp Samurai (15-1) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #5 Knicks Go
$5 exacta: 5 with 1,2 ($10)
Total: $30

Race 11: Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1, 4:33 p.m. ET)

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Breeders’ Cup Turf six times, and he can gain a seventh victory with #10 Mogul (4-1).

This improving 3-year-old fired a big effort in the 1 1/2-mile Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at Longchamp, where he rallied boldly down the stretch to defeat future Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) runner-up In Swoop by 2 1/2 lengths.

Mogul arrives at Keeneland off an eight-week layoff, so the beautifully bred son of Galileo should be fresh for a peak effort. We’ll definitely bet Mogul to win at 4-1, but we’ll also play him on top in the trifecta.

$20 to win on $10 Mogul
$1.50 trifecta: 10 with 2,3,6 with 2,3,6,7,9 ($18)
$1 trifecta: 10 with 2,3,6,7,9 with 2,3,6 ($12)
Total: $50

Good luck!