Tampa Bay Downs: Analyzing the $29,210 Pick 5 carryover

The Sunday card at Tampa Bay Downs brings a $29,210 non-jackpot carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 5.

Handicapping the sequence in advance is made tricky by the fact Tampa Bay Downs has announced they’ll be transferring all turf races to the main track. Until scratches are posted, structuring actual tickets is difficult or impossible.

For example, what do we make of Race 4, a $20,000 claimer originally slated for grass, but which is now taking place over one mile and 40 yards on dirt? #2 Minella (8-5) is the morning line favorite after trouncing a $16,000 maiden claimer over the Tampa grass, but his dirt form is less inspiring, and there’s no guarantee he won’t scratch. Perhaps #3 Gods Glory (7-2) is a viable alternative; he’s been running well in $20,000 claimers on turf, but his last dirt try at Tampa produced a 7 1/2-length romp in a $16,000 maiden claimer. Meanwhile, #7 Coco Shell (12-1) is a live longshot after running second in a $25,000 starter optional claimer over the Tampa main track three starts back.

Race 5, a $25,000 maiden claimer, might be a bit easier since it’s always been intended to take place over six furlongs on dirt. Morning line favorite #4 Nico’s Having Fun (5-2) is a logical contender while picking up Tampa’s top jockey Samy Camacho and adding blinkers and Lasix, but he hasn’t run since finishing fourth in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight nearly one year ago, and the layoff is a question mark. #7 Prince Ghost (7-2) may have potential for a mild upset; he lost his rider last time out, but in his debut he ran fourth in a $40,000 maiden claimer sprinting six furlongs over the Tampa dirt. Dropping in class can trigger a competitive showing.

Race 6 is a $32,000 maiden claimer that has been rained off the turf; it will take place over one mile and 40 yards on dirt. #4 Risky Tizzy (2-1) has never run on dirt, but his sire (Runhappy) won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) on dirt, so the surface switch might not be an issue. He ran off to a daylight early lead before fading to finish second in a $32,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Tampa turf earlier this month and could be a dangerous threat on the front end.

We’re back to a true dirt contest in Race 7, a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for this type of race is an 85, but none of the experienced runners have earned a number higher than 77. That 77 belongs to #2 Sophia’s Prince (8-5), who also posted a 76 when finishing third by half a length in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint over this track and class level on April 12. But while Sophia’s Prince is a must-use contender, he might be vulnerable to an upset against a first-time starter like #3 Valdosta (12-1), a well-bred son of Curlin out of the three-time graded stakes-winning sprinter Pretty N Cool.

The Pick 5 concludes in Race 8, a $10,000 maiden claimer rained off the turf and scheduled to take place over one mile and 40 yards on dirt. It’s a tough field to decipher before scratches are announced, but #4 Kalinba (9-2) is likely a key player. He’s hit the board in his last three tries over this track and class level and has shown tactical speed along the way, setting the stage for a competitive run.

Good luck!