Tampa Bay Downs: Betting the $2,706 Super High 5 carryover

Do you have what it takes to select the top five finishers in Sunday’s first race at Tampa Bay Downs? If you can, you’ll win a share of a $2,706 Super High 5 carryover.

Race 1 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for three-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs on dirt, and the field hasn’t come up especially strong. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 73, but none of the five experienced runners in Sunday’s field have earned a number higher than 68.

That 68 belongs to #3 Roadrunner the Cat (3-5), who is shaping up as clearly the best of the experienced fillies. She debuted over this track, distance, and class level on Feb. 2 and ran a competitive race. After tracking the early pace from third place, Roadrunner the Cat made a mid-race move to challenge for the lead before flattening out in the drive to finish third by 1 3/4 lengths.

Roadrunner the Cat is an obvious contender while making her second start for hot trainer Gregory Sacco, but we have to at least consider the possibility a first-time starter will surprise. We’re particularly drawn to #1 Twizzle (6-1) and #2 Riteoffirstrefusal (8-1).

Twizzle is a daughter of Take Charge Indy, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters. Twizzle’s work tab isn’t flashy, but she’s trained by Kathleen O’Connell, who has gone 8-for-36 (22%) saddling first-time starters on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs since 2021.

Riteoffirstrefusal hasn’t been working especially fast either, but trainer Daniel Damen has compiled a 6-1-1-1 record saddling first-time starters at Tampa since 2021. That’s a 50% in-the-money percentage, and on dirt specifically Damen has gone 3-1-0-0, good for a 33% win rate.

#7 Awesome Elissa (5-1), the third and final first-time starter, seems unlikely to win since trainer Joseph Orseno strikes at only a 5% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. But then again, Awesome Elissa has put together the flashiest work tab among any of the first-time starters, highlighted by half a mile in :48 2/5 at Tampa.

So how should we bet the Super High 5? We’ll think a bit creatively and count on all three of the first-time starters to finish in the top five. We’ll even bet one ticket with them on top. We’ll round out our plays by including #4 Grand Lady Indy (10-1)—arguably the second best of the experienced fillies—for the minor awards.

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 ($24)
• $1 Super High 5: 1,2,7 with 3 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 with 1,2,4,7 ($18)
  Total: $42

Good luck!