Jockey Club Gold Cup

Saturday, October 7, 2017 will see the running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park. The Breeders' Cup Challenge prep for the Classic will see Keen Ice, Gun Runner and several other quality talents battle in a last effort for free entry into the race at Del Mar.

This Jockey Club Gold Cup betting guide offers stats that will aid in handicapping for confident bets.

Historical Trends for Betting the Jockey Club Gold Cup

by Alastair Bull

For most of the 20th century, the Jockey Club Gold Cup was arguably the greatest race for horses of all ages in the United States.

Numerous Hall of Famers made their mark in the race, and it frequently decided Horse of the Year honors. It’s been won by Man o’War, Gallant Fox, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Citation, Nashua, Buckpasser, Damascus, Forego, Affirmed, John Henry, and, most notably, on five occasions by Kelso.

For many years it was the country’s premium stamina contest, run at 2 miles (1921-1975). It was run at 1 1/2 miles from 1976 to 1989, before being cut back to the Breeders’ Cup Classic trip of 1 ¼ miles in 1990.

Since the advent of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1984, the New York feature isn’t quite so important in that sense. However, it’s still a major target.

Unlike the Breeders’ Cup Classic, in which Tiznow is the only repeat winner, the Jockey Club Gold Cup has seen a number of horses victorious more than once. It’s unlikely any horse will ever repeat Kelso’s five consecutive triumphs from 1960 to 1964, but since 1983 there have been six repeat winners: Slew o’Gold, Crème Fraiche, Skip Away, Curlin, Flat Out, and Tonalist.

When trying to select a winner, recent history suggests looking at form from the Travers Stakes, the Whitney Handicap, the Woodward Stakes, and to a lesser degree the Pacific Classic.

Since 1984, eight 3-year-olds have won the Jockey Club Gold Cup: Easy Goer (1989), Miner’s Mark (1993), Skip Away (1996), Albert the Great (2000), Bernardini (2006), Curlin (2007), Summer Bird (2009), and Tonalist (2014). All but Curlin contested the Travers Stakes in August.

An even better guide is the Woodward Stakes. No fewer than 16 winners since 1984 – including two 3-year-olds – contested the September feature at Saratoga. Many of these horses also contested the Whitney Handicap at the same venue in August, though in recent years it has become more popular to use the Whitney as the final lead-up, as Tonalist (2015), Flat Out (2012), and Haynesfield (2010) did.

When West Coast visitors win the race, they’ve often come into the race having contested the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, as last year’s winner Hoppertunity and the 2005 winner Borrego did.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup is held under weight-for-age conditions, which means that all things being equal, the best horse should win. Check whether a horse which last raced in one of those major lead-ups is better or worse off at weight-for-age than they were under handicap or set weight and penalties conditions.

Weather can also be a factor on occasions as well, and it’s worth remembering that on the spacious Belmont Park track, there’s only one turn in the 1 ¼ mile races, compared to two turns at the majority of other tracks. Previous performances at Belmont Park are therefore an important consideration.

 

Belmont Park At A Glance for Previous Meet

Data is through July 4, 2017

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.69 – 1
Favorite Win%: 37%, Favorite Itm%: 73%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	70.54
Daily Double	74.36
Trifecta	483.91
Pick 3	558.37
Superfecta	3,330.84
Pick 6	32,129.85
Pick 4	3,056.65
Pick 5	10,347.43
Pick 6 Jackpot	274,631.20
Super High Five	17,515.30

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(12/26 – 07/04)
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
6.0fDirt	157	38%	E	Rail
7.0fDirt	66	27%	E/P	Outside
1 MileDirt	124	31%	E	Outside
1 1/16mDirt	63	27%	E/P	Outside
DnTf Sprint	116	28%	P	Outside
Turf Routes	174	20%	E/P	Mid/Out

 

TRACK BIAS WEEK(06/28 – 07/04)
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
6.0fDirt	6	33%	E	Rail/Ins
7.0fDirt	7	29%	E	Rail/Ins
1 MileDirt	1	0%	P	Middle
1 1/16mDirt	1	100%	E	Inside
DnTf Sprint	10	10%	S	Rail
Turf Routes	10	40%	E	Outside

 

Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Baffert Bob	11	4	1	1	3.18	4	28%
Mandella Richard E.	6	3	1	1	3.63	2	18%
Black Kenneth D.	6	2	0	1	12.8	1	9%
Hendricks Dan L.	6	2	1	1	14.17	0	14%
Stute Gary	6	2	0	2	9.28	0	13%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Smith Mike E.	6	3	0	1	4.02	3	20%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Pena Brayan	12	0	0	1	33.23	0	7%
Gonzalez Santiago	11	0	2	1	19.22	0	12%

 

The Jockey Club Gold Cup Betting Guide offers a snapshot of Belmont Racecourse and historical racing trends for the Breeders' Cup prep race. This PDF will aid in picking better bets in a high profile race. Save this link and download the PDF, or print, so you can take this unique content with you wherever you go.

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