Keeneland Race Meet Betting Guide

The fall meeting at the beautiful Keeneland racetrack October 6-28 is loaded with high-quality racing. There are 17 graded stakes races at the Lexington, Kentucky track – and of these, nine are Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.

This Keeneland FallStars betting guide offers information to help handicap a confident bet.

Keeneland Stakes Schedule

Date	Race	Grade	Purse	Restrictions	Surface	Distance
Friday, Oct 6	Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix	II	$250,000	3&UP	Dirt	6 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 6	Darley Alcibiades	I	$400,000	F2YO	Dirt	8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7	Woodford	II	$150,000	3&UP	Turf	5 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7	Thoroughbred Club of America	II	$250,000	F&M 3&UP	Dirt	6 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7	First Lady	I	$400,000	F&M 3&UP	Dirt	8 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7	Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity	I	$500,000	2YO	Dirt	8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 7	Shadwell Turf Mile	I	$1,000,000	3&UP	Turf	8 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 8	Dixiana Bourbon	III	$250,000	2YO	Turf	8 1/2 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 8	Juddmonte Spinster	I	$500,000	F&M 3&UP	Dirt	9 Furlongs
Wednesday, Oct 11	JPMorgan Chase Jessamine	I	$150,000	F2YO	Turf	8 1/2 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 13	Buffalo Trace Franklin County	III	$100,000	F&M 3&UP	Turf	5 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 14	Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup	I	$500,000	F3YO	Turf	9 Furlongs
Thursday, Oct 19	Sycamore	III	$100,000	3&UP	Turf	12 Furlongs
Friday, Oct 20	Pin Oak Valley View	III	$150,000	F3YO	Turf	8 1/2 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 21	Lexus Raven Run	II	$250,000	F3YO	Dirt	7 Furlongs
Sunday, Oct 22	Rood & Riddle Dowager	III	$125,000	F&M 3&UP	Turf	12 Furlongs
Saturday, Oct 28	Hagyard Fayette	II	$200,000	3&UP	Dirt	9 Furlongs

 

Keeneland Betting Guide Graded Stakes Overview

by Alastair Bull

The challenge races, with the Breeders’ Cup race that their victors earn a berth in, are:
Oct. 6     Alcibiades Stakes (G1)                                                            Juvenile Fillies
Oct. 6     Phoenix Stakes (G2)                                                                Sprint
Oct. 7     Breeders’ Futurity (G1)                                                         Juvenile
Oct. 7     First Lady Stakes (G1)                                                             Filly & Mare Turf
Oct. 7     Turf Mile (G1)                                                                              Mile
Oct. 7     Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2)              Filly & Mare Sprint
Oct. 8     Bourbon Stakes (G3)                                                               Juvenile Turf
Oct. 8     Spinster Stakes (G1)                                                                Distaff
Oct. 11  Jessamine Stakes (G3)                                                            Juvenile Fillies Turf

Usually, the winners take their place at the Breeders’ Cup, so these are good races to watch for potential winners at that meeting. Last year, Classic Empire won both the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, while Turf Mile third-place finisher Tourist went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

The Phoenix Stakes is a particularly good guide to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, with Runhappy (2015) and Work All Week (2014) both completing the double. Also a worthy guide is the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes – three of its winners (Informed Decision, Dubai Majesty, and Groupie Doll) and two placegetters then went on to win the Filly & Mare Sprint.

The Spinster Stakes, First Lady Stakes, and Turf Mile are also historically good guides to their respective Breeders’ Cup races. Only the Bourbon Stakes and the Jessamine Stakes of the Challenge races have yet to produce a Breeders’ Cup winner, and their time will surely come.

One other graded stakes race is held in the first week at Keeneland, the Woodford Stakes (G2) for turf sprinters. It isn’t a “win and you’re in” race, but some of its contestants may well feature in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint; the 2014 Woodford winner No Nay Never subsequently finished second in the Turf Sprint.

The BC qualifiers may end then, but the high-quality racing doesn’t stop, as there are still seven other graded stakes races at the Keeneland fall meet. Five of these seven are on turf, including four for female gallopers - the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) for 3-year-old fillies on turf at 1 1/8 miles Oct. 14, the 5 ½-furlong Buffalo Trace Franklin County Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares Oct. 13, the 1 ½-mile Dowager Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares Oct. 22, and the 1 1/16-mile Valley View Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies Oct. 20.

The other graded races at Keeneland are the the Sycamore Stakes (G3) on turf at 1 ½ miles Oct. 19, Raven Run Stakes (G2) for 3-year-old sprinters on dirt Oct. 21, and the 1 1/8-mile Fayette Stakes (G2) on dirt Oct. 28.
Keeneland usually attracts good-sized fields, which means returns are often higher. It will be good value for all players.

Keeneland usually attracts good-sized fields, which means returns are often higher. It will be good value for all players.

 

Keeneland At A Glance for Previous Meet

Data is through Monday April 28, 2017

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.80 – 1
Favorite Win%: 35%, Favorite Itm%: 72%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Exacta	90.16
Daily Double	75.26
Trifecta	770.8
Pick 3	529.05
Superfecta	4,884.55
Pick 6	31,639.57
Pick 4	6,475.03
Pick 5	41,957.47
Super High Five	10,997.60

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(04/07 – 04/28
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
6.0fDirt	21	33%	E	Outside
7.0fDirt	16	31%	E	Mid/Out
1 1/16mDirt	20	25%	E	Middle
1 1/8mDirt	8	25%	E/P	Rail/Ins
Turf Sprint	7	14%	S	Rail
Turf Routes	37	16%	P	Rail/Ins

 

TRACK BIAS WEEK(04/22 – 04/28)
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
6.0fDirt	9	56%	E	Outside
7.0fDirt	7	43%	E	Rail
1 1/16mDirt	4	25%	E	Rail/Ins
1 1/8mDirt	3	33%	E/P	Outside
Turf Sprint	1	100%	E	Middle
Turf Routes	14	21%	P	Rail/Ins

 

Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
McLaughlin Kiaran P.	6	5	0	0	3.95	2	20%
Pletcher Todd A.	11	5	1	1	1.7	4	23%
Lynch Brian A.	10	4	1	3	2.77	3	17%
Manley Steve	3	2	1	0	5.13	1	17%
Brown Chad C.	5	2	3	0	1.42	2	25%
Amoss Thomas M.	6	2	0	0	7.13	1	26%
Toner James J.	6	2	0	0	9.65	1	18%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Lanerie Corey J.	32	8	7	6	5.91	5	16%
Rosario Joel	15	6	2	3	3.87	3	16%
Velazquez John R.	5	3	0	1	1.76	2	20%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
LoPresti Charles	13	0	2	0	20.75	0	13%
Rice Wayne W.	13	0	0	2	66.49	0	8%
Pessin Neil L.	10	0	2	1	22.56	1	10%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Gilligan Jack	18	0	3	1	33.79	0	12%
Graham James	13	0	1	2	30.13	0	11%
Lopez Paco	12	0	1	1	10.66	1	22%

 

The Keeneland Fall Meet Betting Guide offers information and analysis on the meet's top races. This PDF will aid in selecting better bets for the popular botique meet. Save this link and download the PDF, or print, so you can take this unique content with you wherever you go.

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