Saturday, August 19, 2017 will witness the return of Arrogate in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar Racetrack. The West Coast dirt race will offer a lingering question of racing fans across the globe, can Arrogate bounce back?

This Pacific Classic betting guide offers information to help find a potential answer, which can be backed with a confident bet.

Pacific Classic Weekend Stakes Schedule

• Del Mar Handicap - A Breeders' Cup Challenge Race
• Del Mar Oaks
• Pacific Classic - A Breeders' Cup Challenge Race
• Del Mar Mile - Aug. 20

 

Del Mar's Pacific Classic Perspective

Despite a shocking loss at odds of 1-20 in last month’s San Diego H. (G2), most fans and followers will expect Arrogate to rebound with a victory in the $1 million Pacific Classic (G1) on Saturday.

The Pacific Classic is also likely to mark the seventh time in Arrogate’s career where he will start as an odds-on favorite. That does not include the Dubai World Cup (G1), which officially has no wagering.

Favorites have won eight of the 26 editions of the Pacific Classic, a rate of nearly 31 percent. That’s slightly below the normal rate of success for favorites, but it’s worth noting the last four winners of the race (California Chrome, Beholder, Shared Belief, and Game On Dude) went off as the public choice.

However, none of them started at less than even-money. Only four horses have ever started as an odds-on choice in the Pacific Classic, and if there’s a trend to be gleaned from that small sample, Arrogate could be in trouble.

The only horse ever to win the 1 1/4-mile test at odds-on was Gentlemen in 1997. In fact, the Richard Mandella trainee was the first favorite ever to win the Pacific Classic.

Mandella also played a role in the biggest upset in race history when his 39-1 chance Dare and Go defeated Cigar, who was seeking his 17th consecutive victory, one year earlier. Cigar started at 1-10, a price Arrogate is unlikely to match.

The late Bobby Frankel had a hand in the other two Pacific Classics that involved odds-on favorites. In 1993, the Frankel-trained Bertrando led wire-to-wire while 2-5 favorite Best Pal, the inaugural Pacific Classic winner two years earlier, finished third.

Frankel’s luck wasn’t quite as good in 2003 as Medaglia d’Oro, who was 3-5 to beat just three rivals, proved no match versus Candy Ride.

Cigar was a victim of pace and opposition tactics, while Best Pal and Medaglia d’Oro lost to horses that were arguably better. Bertrando was the divisional champion in 1993, while Candy Ride retired undefeated after the Pacific Classic.

Among the Pacific Classic probables, it’s hard to argue any are better than Arrogate in a general sense. And unless Arrogate unexpectedly shows the kind of speed he did winning the Travers (G1), pace won’t necessarily play a major role in him winning or losing.

Still, there are a couple serious rivals for the favorite to be concerned with on Saturday. Accelerate has beaten Arrogate to the finish line in both of the champion’s losses, while fellow Bob Baffert trainee Collected rides in on an impressive three-race win streak.
Many bettors will undoubtedly think twice about taking too short a price in light of the San Diego result.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club At A Glance for Current Meet

Data is through Monday August 14, 2017

Avg. Winning Odds: 4.99 – 1
Favorite Win%: 29%, Favorite Itm%: 70%
EXOTICS	PAYOFF
Quinella	40.23
Exacta	77.27
Daily Double	85.80
Trifecta	549.16
Pick 3	713.49
Superfecta	3,201.52
Pick 6	33,308.07
Pick 4	4,991.94
Pick 5	20,518.27
Pick 6 Jackpot	95,443.58
Place Pick All	7,570.03
Super High Five	18,257.22

 

TRACK BIAS MEET(07/19 – 08/13)
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
5.0fDirt	13	46%	E	Outside
6.5fDirt	21	43%	E	Inside
1 MileDirt	26	19%	E	Middle
1 1/16mDirt	3	33%	E	Outside
Turf Sprint	12	17%	S	Rail/Ins
Turf Routes	53	15%	S	Rail/Ins

 

TRACK BIAS WEEK(08/07 – 08/13)
Distance	# Race	% Wire	Best Style	Best Posts
5.0fDirt	5	40%	E	Rail/Ins
6.5fDirt	7	29%	E	Inside
1 MileDirt	9	22%	E	Outside
1 1/16mDirt	1	0%	P	Outside
Turf Sprint	4	0%	S	Rail/Ins
Turf Routes	10	20%	S	Rail/Ins

 

Who’s HOT, Who’s NOT
HOT TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Baffert Bob	12	4	2	1	3.48	2	28%
Proctor Thomas F.	5	3	0	2	2.58	2	19%
McCarthy Michael W.	8	3	2	1	8.70	1	13%
Pederson Dean	3	2	0	0	9.30	1	17%
Carava Jack	4	2	0	1	13.28	0	17%
Pender Michael	5	2	0	1	13.90	0	9%
Spawr William	5	2	0	0	11.10	1	20%
HOT JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Winning Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Prat Flavien	23	7	3	4	3.80	3	19%
Desormeaux Kent J.	23	6	7	4	6.16	2	19%
Gutierrez Mario	12	3	0	2	12.83	0	13%
COLD TRAINERS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Palma Hector O.	10	0	0	1	17.11	0	13%
Pearson Molly J.	10	0	0	1	21.30	0	12%
COLD JOCKEYS	Starts	Wins	Place	Show	Avg. Odds	Beaten Favorites	’16-‘ 17 Win%
Gonzalez Santiago	13	0	3	1	22.95	0	12%
Theriot Jamie	10	0	2	1	19.06	1	9%

 

The Pacific Classic Betting Guide offers a snapshot of Del Mar Racecourse and thoughts on how Arrogate will challenge the field presented before him in this grade I race. This PDF will aid in selecting better bets for a high profile race. Save this link and download the PDF, or print, so you can take this unique content with you wherever you go.

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