The best longshot to bet in the 2021 Preakness

It seems as though everyone is talking about the three logical favorites entered in Saturday’s $1 million Preakness (G1) at Pimlico.

Kentucky Derby (G1) winner #3 Medina Spirit (9-5), Rebel (G2) hero #10 Concert Tour (5-2), and Lecomte (G3) winner #5 Midnight Bourbon (5-1) all bring eye-catching resumes to the table. Medina Spirit in particular stands every chance to follow up his gritty Kentucky Derby performance with a front-running victory at Pimlico.

But what if you want to play outside the box with a longshot? Whether you’re looking for a nice-priced win bet or a horse to key underneath in exotic wagers, I recommend taking a long look at #6 Rombauer (12-1), an accomplished colt with the upside to produce a career-best performance on Saturday.

Trained by Michael McCarthy, who performed masterful work with 2019 Pegasus World Cup (G1) hero City of Light, Rombauer showed plenty of promise as a juvenile. The stretch-running son of Twirling Candy broke his maiden on turf, but later transitioned to dirt and followed a runner-up effort in the American Pharoah (G1) with a solid fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

After taking the winter off, Rombauer returned to action in the El Camino Real Derby, in which he rallied from last place over a synthetic track to win by a neck. But Rombauer really caught my eye when returning to dirt for the Blue Grass (G2). Facing a deep field led by champion two-year-old male Essential Quality, Rombauer showed more tactical speed than usual, settling in third place as the leaders carved out modest early fractions.

Rombauer couldn’t quite keep up when the pace accelerated sharply in the final three furlongs, but he did stay on gamely to finish third by a clear margin.

This deceptively strong performance produced a career-best 96 Brisnet Speed rating, and there’s no reason to think Rombauer can’t take another step forward in his third start of the season. He was eligible to compete in the Kentucky Derby, but passed on the first leg of the Triple Crown to target the Preakness instead. Judging from his recent workouts—a series of sub-1:00 five-furlong moves at Santa Anita—Rombauer might just now be finding his best stride, opening the door for a top-three finish at odds of 12-1.

Good luck!