The impact of the new Road to the Kentucky Derby points system

Four consistent horses that in previous years would not have made the Kentucky Derby field are set to make it this year under the new points system that rewards those which run more often in prep races.

There is still one race to go in the Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby – Saturday’s Lexington (G3) at Keeneland. With points available only on a 20-8-6-4-2 basis, it was expected to have limited impact, until the connections of one of the horses right on the cusp – Disarm – decided to enter.

However, we are in a position to see the impact the new system has had.

* Qualified for Kentucky Derby start in 2023 but would have missed out in 2022

** Would have qualified for 2023 Kentucky Derby if 2022 points system was still used

*** Earned 2023 start as invitee from Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby

There were essentially three changes made to the points system for 2023. By far the most notable change was the addition of points for finishing fifth in preps, and the increase in points available for horses finishing third and fourth. So not only did horses finishing fifth score points that they didn’t last season, horses finishing third earned at least 50% more points than they did last season, and fourth horses earned at least twice as much.

The other two changes were relatively minor but important nonetheless; the increase in points for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) from 20-8-4-2 to 30-12-9-6-3, and the increase in points for seven races at the end of the “Prep Season” in January and February – the Lecomte (G3), Southwest (G3), Holy Bull (G3), Robert B. Lewis (G3), Withers (G3), Sam F. Davis (G3), and John Battaglia – from 10-4-2-1 to 20-8-6-4-2.

As a result, four horses that scored points in at least two races have been rewarded for their consistency and hardiness and found their way into the field.

The biggest beneficiary of the new system has been Sun Thunder. He would have been 22nd on the qualifying list with 31 points under the old system, three places away from the presumed cut-off point in the main Derby Road of 19th (with the 20th spot reserved for the Japan Road invitee).

Under the new system, Sun Thunder earned 54 points. Only the 20 he earned for his Risen Star (G2) second placing was unchanged; otherwise, he picked up 20 points, rather than 10, for finishing fourth in the Blue Grass (G1); 10, rather than zero, for fifth in the Louisiana Derby (G2); and four points, rather than one, for his Southwest fourth.

Blazing Sevens not only benefited from the extra points for finishing third in the Blue Grass, but also for the increase in points for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He earned 30 points, rather than 20, for his Blue Grass third, and six points, rather than two, for his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth. Jace’s Road, as of April 9, made it in 19th place based on extra points for placings in three races. He picked up three, rather than two, for his Iroquois (G3) third; 30 rather than 20 for his Louisiana Derby third; and two rather than zero for his Southwest fifth.

Reincarnate showed the importance of the points changes for third-place finishers, as he picked up 30 points, rather than 20, for filling that position in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and 15, rather than 10, for the same placing in the Rebel (G2). Even so, he made the cutoff based on non-restricted stakes earnings ahead of Skinner and Cyclone Mischief, two horses with the same story to tell regarding third place-finishes.

If the system used for the Road to the 2022 Kentucky Derby was in place for 2023, Major Dude, Mandarin Hero, King Russell, and Disarm would have made the cut. As opposed to the new inclusions that were rewarded for consistency, these four had just one race in which they earned points, taking 40 points for finishing second in a major prep.

The horse among this quartet that would have garnered most attention from bettors is probably Mandarin Hero, who pushed leading Derby fancy Practical Move to the limit in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). None of the other three, however, finished within 3 1/2 lengths of the winner when earning their 40 points, and most likely would have started at long odds.

Defections, or a points-earning effort in the Lexington, could yet push some of these horses into the race.