The Jury: Bets and fades for April 2

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on this weekend's stakes action, highlighted by a trio of Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifiers at Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, and Turfway Park.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: Secret Oath and Simplification are top picks in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Florida Derby (G1), respectively, but the morning-line favorites won't offer much value for straight wagers. #5 Tawny Port, listed at 6-1 in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), offers wagering appeal in his second stakes attempt. A nice winner in his first two starts on Turfway's Tapeta, Tawny Port rallied past rivals for fifth when shipping for the Feb. 19 Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, a very respectable performance given the depth of the field — Slow Down Andy won the Sunland Derby (G3) after finishing sixth. That experience should greatly benefit Tawny Port, who looks poised to run well from off the pace Saturday.

Kellie Reilly: I'm hopeful that #4 Crystal Cliffs (9-2) can achieve her much-deserved stakes breakthrough in the Sand Springs S. at Gulfstream Park. The French import has been on my radar since she missed by a head to future Grade 1 winner Harvey's Lil Goil in the 2020 Regret (G3). Crystal Cliffs has raced only twice since, again just denied in last spring's Dahlia S. at Laurel and rallying for third in the Eatontown (G3). Although she's resuming from a nine-month layoff, she has a history of firing fresh for Graham Motion, who wins at a 20% clip off extended breaks. There should be a sensible pace set-up, and pedigree suggests that Crystal Cliffs can handle a rain-affected course.

Vance Hanson: I'm not sure why #6 Shad Nation (6-1) failed to fire as a heavy favorite in her stakes debut last fall in the Chelsey Flower S. at Belmont. But rather than pursue an entry-level allowance somewhere, trainer Christophe Clement evidently has no qualms bringing her back in the Sanibel Island S. at Gulfstream on Saturday. Although an even fifth in the Chelsey Flower, Shad Nation's relative class is perhaps better judged by her debut victory at Belmont on Oct. 9. Who did she beat to the wire? Gun Boat and Spicer, who finished second and third, respectively, both came back to graduate in their next outings. Gun Boat subsequently ran third in the Wait a While S. at Gulfstream, while Spicer was most recently second by a head in the Florida Oaks (G3). Shad Nation figures to have more to give, and at a square price.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: Last seen finishing third at odds-on in the Golden Rod (G2), #8 Sandstone (5-2) has never raced on turf or synthetics, and she's returning from a 126-day layoff against stakes-proven foes in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. Her best performance came when leading wire-to-wire in the Rags to Riches S. last October, but it's difficult to envision a similar trip in Saturday's 12-horse field, and Sandstone is eligible to need a race as the favorite.

KR: #9 Bubble Rock (3-1) has the vibe of an underlay in the Fantasy (G3). After winning the Cincinnati Trophy convincingly on Turfway Park's Tapeta, the next step for the turf/synthetic performer would presumably have been the Bourbonette Oaks. Instead, she pops up for a dirt debut at Oaklawn Park. Bubble Rock is already a Grade 3 winner from last season's Matron (G3) on turf, so it's not just a case of pursuing a graded title. I'm tempted to view this as placement more for the owner — she is a homebred for Arkansan John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable. The Brad Cox trainee could make a seamless transition to dirt, but she's a short price while stepping up into a wide-open Kentucky Oaks (G1) points race.

VH: Neither the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) nor the Sam F. Davis (G3) was very compelling from a depth perspective. Given that, #2 Classic Causeway (7-2) is a fade for me in the Florida Derby. Although visually impressive winning both, it was easy for him to pick off such low-hanging fruit, especially after setting a moderate pace in the Tampa Bay Derby. Re-routed to the Florida Derby after connections originally declared next week's Blue Grass (G1) as his final Kentucky Derby prep, the Gulfstream fixture will determine whether he is truly up to Derby standard. Count me still skeptical.

What else is worth noting?

JS: #4 Martini Blu, listed at 10-1 in Saturday's eighth race at Oaklawn Park, is a longshot of interest. Connections tried the debut maiden winner in the 2021 Smarty Jones S. second time out, but Martini Blu exited a fifth with an injury. He came back from an 11-month layoff with front wraps in early January, finishing fifth, and improved four weeks later after Mac Robertson removed the bandages, finishing third in a deep allowance. Most of these rivals don't like to win — the top four choices on the morning line all look vulnerable — and Martini Blu can take advantage with a strong showing from just off the pace.

KS: I'm intrigued by #11 Tartufo (30-1) in the Kentucky Cup Classic. The lightly-raced five-year-old is tackling some seasoned veterans in this stakes debut, but he's won two straight for Carlo Vaccarezza at Turfway and Gulfstream. Most of all, Tartufo's pedigree telegraphs class on this kind of surface. He's a Creative Cause half-brother to Washington Bridge, a Grade 2 winner on the old Cushion Track at Hollywood. Elsewhere, past Derby trail alumni #4 Weyburn (10-1) (in the Sir Shackleton S. at Gulfstream) and #5 Roadster (5-1) (in the Oaklawn Mile) are launching comebacks on Saturday. Weyburn, the 2021 Gotham (G3) hero who nearly upset Mandaloun in the Pegasus S. at Monmouth, reverts to one turn for new trainer Brendan Walsh. Roadster hasn't scored since the 2019 Santa Anita Derby (G1); indeed, he's been a money-burner, and the Oaklawn Mile is a tough spot to turn things around. Roadster has benefited from another throat surgery, according to trainer Mike Stidham, so perhaps we'll see an improved effort.

VH: Along with many others, I'm intrigued by the filly Secret Oath's presence in the Arkansas Derby. Without her, there was a distinct possibility the race could have had a second dull renewal in succession. Regardless of whether she succeeds or fails, she adds plenty of pre-race luster to it, and she stands a solid chance of winning. Depending on her performance, she could possibly forsake a shot at the Kentucky Oaks to run in the Kentucky Derby itself. We haven't had a filly with a legitimate chance at winning in the Derby in a long time, but if anyone knows how to produce such a candidate it's D. Wayne Lukas.