The Jury: Bets and fades for April 8

Classic preps and other top class offerings at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita are the focus in this week's meeting of the TwinSpires Jury.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #6 Be Your Best (8-1) in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland. An impressive winner of her first two starts, Be Your Best appeared poised to make an impact entering the stretch of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) when she ran into a wall of traffic, steadying repeatedly as she was shuffled back, and she lost all chance due to the trip. Luis Saez takes the mount on Be Your Best over Papilio, who provided a measure of the sophomore turf fillies at Gulfstream when recording a head second in the Herecomesthebride (G3) on March 4, and Be Your Best has the tactical ability to settle just off the speed before offering her best.

Vance Hanson: In the nightcap at Keeneland, a nine-furlong turf maiden for three-year-olds, #6 He's Got Swagger (5-1) figures to get a more favorable pace setup than he received in either of his wintertime starts at Fair Grounds. Neither prevented him finishing well for second in both, including the debut where he split two next-out winners, but he should get a much fairer shot this time with livelier fractions to chase.

Ashley Anderson: #8 Blazing Sevens (6-1) failed to factor last out in the Fountain of Youth (G2), but there’s plenty of reason the Good Magic colt can pull off an upset in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. In 2018, the three-year-old’s sire won this race with trainer Chad Brown, who also scored a victory with Zandon in 2022. The winner of the one-mile Champagne (G1) will also add blinkers for the first time (a 21% winning move for Brown), and he’s eligible to improve in his second start off a layoff. The dark bay will also gain the services of Irad Ortiz Jr., a 28% winner with routes and closer types. I’ll take a chance with the 6-1 shot over morning line favorites Tapit Trice and Verifying.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #2 Nakatomi (2-1) in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland. The late runner is 3-for-3 at Keeneland, but he’s taken advantage of favorable setups in prior efforts, and there’s no speed entered in Saturday’s 10-horse field. Nakatomi may leave himself too much to do from off the pace.

VH: I wasn't a believer in #8 Caravel (8-5) (and not many were) heading into the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) last November, so I'm not interested in grabbing her at a minute fraction of that 42-1 price as she takes on the boys again in the Shakertown (G2). Unless she's some sort of sprint version of Tepin, or simply runs above and beyond par over the Keeneland turf, I'm taking a cautious view in her season debut. 

AA: #4 Manny Wah (3-1) opened as a lukewarm favorite in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer on the Blue Grass undercard and will attempt to get back to the winner's circle for the first time since October 2022. The seven-year-old finished seventh of eight last out in the 5 1/2-furlong Colonel Power S. on Fair Grounds' lawn for trainer Wayne Catalano, an 11% winner with horses switching from turf to dirt. Manny Wah got up to win by a neck in the six-furlong Phoenix (G2) at Keeneland in October but otherwise struggled in 2022, finishing 11-1-2-0 for the season. I'll fade the favorite here and back pacesetter Fortin Hill (6-1), who finished third to Nakatomi and next-out winner Endorsed last out at today's distance and will get a rider switch to hot jockey Gerardo Corrales (19-5-1-0 the last seven days).

What else is worth noting?

JS: I like #3 Verifying (3-1) on the front end in the Blue Grass. #13 Hit Show (5-2) is my pick in the Wood Memorial (G2), and I’ll include a pair of longshots, #10 Uncle Jake (20-1) and #11 Classic Catch (10-1), in vertical exotic wagers. In the Santa Anita Derby (G1), #7 Skinner (4-1) should offer value off a troubled third in the San Felipe (G2). I give the late-running Curlin colt the edge over #5 Practical Move (8-5), and will use both in multi-race bets.

VH: #2 Papilio (6-1) was a distant sixth in the Moyglare Stud (G1) at The Curragh last September, perhaps the best juvenile filly race of the year in Europe when Tahiyra and Meditate ran one-two. However, she was much more competitive in her U.S. debut in last month's Herecomesthebride, just missing by a head while outfinishing #3 Cairo Consort for second by a nostril. That bit of form puts her in the mix in the Appalachian at Keeneland, and she still figures to offer value relative to some of the other fillies in the field.

AA: With the final three major Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races scheduled for this weekend, a number of horses on the cusp of the 20-horse field have a chance to skyrocket up the leaderboard with a win in the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, or Santa Anita Derby. Brad Cox-trained Hit Show and Slip Mahoney are both on the outside looking in on a Derby berth and will compete in the Wood at Aqueduct, while Geaux Rocket Ride could secure enough points for the first Saturday in May even if he settles for a minor award in the Santa Anita Derby. In the Blue Grass, Blazing Sevens and Verifying are in need of a strong performance.

But a maiden who has yet to earn any points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby series has a chance to end up in the top five on the points table with a win in the Wood. Gun Runner colt Dreamlike is the 7-2 second choice on the morning line in Aqueduct's main event after placing second in both career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher. Last out, the chestnut was beaten less than a length while posting a 98 Brisnet Speed figure (the highest last race speed figure among the field), and he may improve with blinkers added in his first start at Aqueduct. Pletcher already has the top runner, Forte, on the Derby leaderboard, but it will be interesting to see if stablemate Dreamlike can become a late player in the game for his two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer.