The Jury: Bets and fades for April 9

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on the final weekend of major Kentucky Derby (G1) preps and other top-level stakes at Keeneland, Aqueduct, and Santa Anita.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: Plenty of speed is signed on for the Madison (G1) at Keeneland, and #5 Bell's the One (7-2) will be rolling late from off the pace. The six-year-old mare concluded last season on a strong note, winning back-to-back stakes at Keeneland and Churchill Downs, and she's been training forwardly for her return. A Grade 1 winner at seven furlongs, Bell's the One will take advantage of a terrific setup.

Kellie Reilly: In Keeneland's fourth race on Saturday, #9 Macallan (4-1) has the profile of a Todd Pletcher sophomore on the rise. By Quality Road and out of a full sister to multiple Grade 2 winner Fed Biz, from the family of Johannesburg and Pulpit, Macallan arguably should have won on debut sprinting at Tampa Bay Downs. He appeared to make a rookie mistake by losing position early, and nearly atoned with a closing rush to miss on the wire. That experience, and the stretch-out to two turns next time, helped as he rolled by daylight. The Triple Crown nominee still looked a touch green there, suggesting more to come. Another step forward in this allowance would probably launch him into stakes company.

Vance Hanson: Having tabbed #6 The Lir Jet (12-1) to beat Golden Pal in the 2020 Norfolk (G2) at Royal Ascot, I'd be remiss if I didn't like him at a potentially longer price to topple the two-time Breeders' Cup winner in Saturday's Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland. Gelded last season, The Lir Jet reversed a spate of lackluster form when impressively taking his U.S. debut in the Franklin-Simpson S. at Kentucky Downs in September. Although he wouldn't want the ground too soft and the distance might be slightly shorter than he really prefers, The Lir Jet would be a tempting play at 8-1 or higher as Golden Pal is sure to be odds-on or thereabouts.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #5 Nashville (1-1) flashed forward as lone speed and dominated overmatched allowance rivals at Fair Grounds last time, but #10 Prevalence exits a sharp win and has the speed to press the favorite in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland. Unplaced in lone attempt at the seven-furlong trip, Nashville dropped his first two starts at Oaklawn this season, and he may prove vulnerable at short odds Saturday.

KR: Wood Memorial (G2) favorite #5 Morello (8-5) is clearly talented, but I'm not persuaded that 1 1/8 miles will be his favorite trip. Especially in the context of a Kentucky Derby prep, with the prospect of a solid pace, he's liable to be beaten for stamina by the likes of #1 Mo Donegal and #3 Early Voting. Note that Morello is related to Social Inclusion, a brilliant sprinter/miler who was third in the 2014 Wood.

VH: #6 Kimari (2-1) might prove vulnerable in her title defense of the Madison at Keeneland. Although perfect in two starts over the track and owning a fondness for the wet conditions that might exist at post time, her allowance prep at Gulfstream (94) wasn't quite as strong on the Brisnet Speed rating scale as her lead-in to this race a year ago, the Spring Fever S. at Oaklawn (105). While fully capable of improving off that effort, she's facing a deeper cast this year and offers little in the way of value.

What else is worth noting?

JS: In his last dirt start, #1 O P Firecracker closely stalked the pace before drawing off to break his maiden at Churchill Downs in late November. Robert Medina brought him back in a pair of stakes on the Tapeta at Turfway Park this year, and the sophomore colt rallied well in both starts, finishing only four lengths back of Tiz the Bomb in the Battaglia Memorial most recently. O P Firecracker moves back to the main track in a field lacking speed, receives first-time Lasix, and he'll be reunited with Tyler Gaffalione, who was up for the maiden win. Look for a better trip just off the speed, and O P Firecracker rates top billing at 12-1 on the morning line in Keeneland's fourth race.

KS: Wesley Ward sprint stars will be out in force at Keeneland Saturday, with Golden Pal the prohibitive favorite in the Shakertown (G2) and Kimari mounting a title defense in the Madison (G1). But there could be some Brazilian flavor to add value. Mark Casse's #9 Filo di Arianna (12-1) puts his unbeaten record on the line in the 5 1/2-furlong Shakertown, the shortest trip of his career. Yet Brazilian imports have done well on this course (see the past two Keeneland Turf Mile [G1] winners, In Love and Ivar), and Filo di Arianna descends from a sister to Prankster, the 1999 Shakertown hero. He could round out the exacta with Golden Pal — or maybe even upset if the turf is soft. Speaking of In Love and Ivar, their trainer, Paulo Lobo, sends out #2 Center Aisle (12-1) in the Madison. Although this seven-furlong test has come up deep, Center Aisle started out with a pretty big reputation for Chad Brown, and Lobo has the $1.5 million daughter of Into Mischief in sharp form.

VH: Besides the intrigue of the three Kentucky Derby preps, I'm also interested to see any progress #2 Ain't Easy (4-1) might show in the Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Forced to miss the Breeders' Cup last fall after facile victories in her first two starts, Ain't Easy returned to action in last month's Santa Ysabel (G3) and was clearly short of peak fitness against a pair of Bob Baffert-trained rivals that had been active all winter. She obviously needs a better effort to warrant a trip east for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), but she remains with plenty of upside.