The Jury: Bets and fades for Aug. 26 - 27

With Travers Day at Saratoga the emphasis, the TwinSpires Jury of Kellie Reilly, Vance Hanson, and Ashley Anderson note what to look for there and elsewhere on this final weekend of August.

What is your best bet?

Kellie Reilly: #2 Bold Journey (9-2) appears ready to clear his entry-level allowance condition in Saturday's third race at Saratoga. A half-brother to Grade 1 winner Americanrevolution, he romped in a New York-bred maiden at Aqueduct last December and led a long way in the one-mile Gander S. before tiring to second. The only rival to catch him that day was Barese, who recently won the New York Derby (and rates a top chance in Friday's Albany S.). Bold Journey was below par in his next two, but returned from a freshening to rally for second, despite a slow start, in a similar state-bred allowance going six furlongs here July 31. The seven-furlong trip is likely just right, and the Hard Spun colt has been training forwardly for Bill Mott, striking at 22% in the "second off a layoff" category.

Vance Hanson: #1 Adhamo (7-2) is beginning to emerge as the best long-distance turf performer based in the U.S., thus he's the pick in the Sword Dancer (G1) at Saratoga. Compromised by lone speed in the Fair Grounds (G3) and Manhattan (G1), and by the tricky footing in his Derby Day loss at Churchill Downs, Adhamo finally put it all together last out with a rallying win in the United Nations (G1). He gets a furlong more to work with Saturday, and the pace figures to be honest enough with several speed elements in the mix.

Ashley Anderson: Friday night’s Charles Town Oaks (G3) drew a competitive field of nine fillies, with #5 Society (3-1) out of Steve Asmussen’s barn the slight morning line favorite. The Gun Runner daughter was last seen finishing fourth to Nest by 17 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga and is cutting back in distance to seven furlongs in her debut at Charles Town. The chestnut should be in the mix down the stretch, but I’ll be taking a chance on #9 Free Like a Girl (6-1), who clocked a 101 Speed figure when winning the six-furlong Louisiana Cup Filly and Mare Sprint S. by 6 1/2 lengths last out on Aug. 6 at Louisiana Downs. She's moving up in class, but her last speed rating is by far the fastest among the field, and her recent 47-second, four-furlong workout and 34-second, three-furlong work at Evangeline Downs give hope she can spring an upset.

Who is the horse to fade?

KR: #2 Lost Ark (2-1) strikes me as a vulnerable favorite in Saturday's Sapling S. at Monmouth. In fact, I almost made one of his rivals, impressive Saratoga debut romper #5 V Mart (9-2), my best bet, but there are a few other very promising types in the lineup. The competition's potential is just one cause for pause about Lost Ark. Although he's a half-brother to top three-year-old filly (and stablemate) Nest, the Todd Pletcher trainee is a speedier type. Lost Ark showed a fine attitude to win the pace battle and draw off in his July 3 unveiling at Belmont Park, but that 5 1/2-furlong maiden hasn't really panned out. Now he's stretching out to a mile, off a longer break than anyone else in the race, and facing pace opposition of better quality than he dispatched on debut.

VH: He gets some significant class relief after facing the likes of Flightline and Life Is Good, but #8 Speaker's Corner (6-5) might be worth taking on in the Pat O'Brien (G2) at Del Mar. Those were significant gaps between himself and those two division stalwarts, which suggests he might not have given the absolute best account of himself either time. That gives us a nagging feeling we might have seen his peak early in the season at Gulfstream and Aqueduct, and on Saturday he's traveling to unfamiliar terrain to face a solid group with valuable experience over the track.

AA: #3 Broome (3-1) won at 1 1/2 miles two back at Royal Ascot on June 18 in the Hardwicke (G2) but came home fourth by 12 lengths at today’s distance when stepping up in class in the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth S. (G1) on July 23. The six-year-old now ships to the U.S. for Aidan O’Brien in the Sword Dancer S. on the Travers undercard and faces stiff competition among the 10-horse field. Chad Brown runners #1 Adhamo (7-2) and #5 Rockemperor (8-1) both look like solid chances to score a trip to the winner’s circle, while #6 Gufo (9-2) may bounce back with the addition of blinkers. O’Brien is just a 7% winner in both his last 55 graded stakes races and last 60 turf starts. I’ll be fading the Irish-bred Broome — who placed second in last November’s Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) — in his second career U.S. start.

What else is worth noting?

KR: #8 Soldier Rising (15-1) is worth a look in Saturday's Sword Dancer at Saratoga, where he could outrun his odds. Aidan O'Brien's #3 Broome brings the standout form, as the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) runner-up who's been competing at a high level in Europe for a few years. But the key to his chances here is the pace, and where jockey Ryan Moore places him early. The son of Australia is capable of going forward if circumstances require. With front-running Tribhuvan and Channel Maker on the scene, though, there's no need for Broome to force the issue early. I'd argue that he'd be best served by more patient tactics, somewhat like the Breeders' Cup ride he got from Irad Ortiz Jr. While the likelihood of a strongly-run 1 1/2 miles would suit defending champion #6 Gufo, a frustrating performer who puts the blinkers back on, the race shape also benefits his Christophe Clement stablemate Soldier Rising. Runner-up to future multiple Group 1-winning globetrotter State of Rest in last summer's Saratoga Derby (G1) here, Soldier Rising was also second in the Jockey Club Derby to next-out Breeders' Cup champ Yibir. The well-bred son of Frankel might have his optimal conditions for a breakthrough.

VH: Jackie's Warrior in the Forego (G1) and Jack Christopher in the Allen Jerkens (G1) will be popular singles in multi-race wagers on Travers Day. They will indeed be difficult to beat in their respective races, but singling them and spreading in other legs is obviously going to be a very popular strategy that will yield depressed payoffs should they come through. The sequences involving them might not be the best to attack on Saturday's card, but they definitely are if a bettor feels one or both are worth fading. And if a bettor doesn't like one or both to win at all, by no means should either horse be included on tickets defensively. If the situation presents itself, it's better to take a stand.

AA: The Ballerina H. (G1) on Saratoga’s Sunday card drew a talented group of seven, including Princess Rooney Invitational S. (G2) winner #1 Ce Ce, Bed o’ Roses hero #5 Bella Sofia, Chicago (G3) winner #4 Lady Rocket, and Derby City Distaff S. (G1) champ Obligatory. Bella Sofia followed up her win in the Bed o’ Roses on June 10 with a third-place effort in the six-furlong Honorable Miss H. (G2), in which she was beaten as the favorite by 6 1/4 lengths in her second start at Saratoga. Ce Ce is likely to go off as the favorite, but I'll back #7 Goodnight Olive, who continues to improve for trainer Chad Brown and has now won four straight, and by a combined 14 1/2 lengths in her two tries at seven furlongs.