The Jury: Bets and fades for Dec. 10

The TwinSpires Jury of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Ashley Anderson examine this weekend's action at Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Oaklawn Park, and Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #10 Coppermaster (6-1 morning line) in Saturday’s sixth race at Gulfstream. The two-year-old colt showed little on the main track in his first two starts, but he switched to synthetics with a fast-closing third after missing the break last time. Out of a multiple turf stakes-winning dam, Coppermaster promises to relish the move to turf, and he doesn’t have to be so far in the early stages, racing close to the pace in his second start.

Kellie Reilly: Delight is the headliner in Saturday’s Wait a While S. at Gulfstream Park, but the 7 1/2-furlong turf test features several promising juvenile fillies eligible to step up. I’m most intrigued by #4 Personal Pursuit (7-2), who might have been better known by now if she’d had better luck on and off the track. The $500,000 Tapit filly, a half-sister to four stakes winners (two of them graded), was intended to race at Saratoga until an abscessed tooth cost her time. The Mark Casse trainee instead broke her maiden in an off-the-turf sprint at Aqueduct, and when finally getting onto the grass for the Matron (G3), she was clobbered at the start. In the circumstances, Personal Pursuit did well to pass half the field to finish fifth. Now she picks up Tyler Gaffalione, a 43% winner when teaming up with Casse (ROI of +2.45) over the past 60 days. She has the tactical speed to sit close and the pedigree to route.

Ashley Anderson: Following the FTBOA Marion County Florida Sire S. (Race 9) at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday, the final race of the evening features 10 three-year-olds and older, including Mizzen Mast gelding #6 Bird’s Eye View (3-1), who moves up in class after winning a one-mile race on turf by a head at Meadowlands. In his first start in two months, I think the eight-year-old can be beaten by longshot #8 South Sea (8-1), who switches from dirt to turf and stretches out to a mile after sprinting six furlongs in his last two since moving to the barn of Darien Rodriguez. South Sea has finished second and third in four tries at today’s distance, with a career-best 89 Brisnet Speed figure at a mile. His sharp four-furlong workout ahead of this event indicates he's ready, and a switch to jockey Antonio Gallardo, a 16% winner on turf, can benefit the Into Mischief eight-year-old.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: On Saturday’s Louisiana Champions Day at Fair Grounds, #3 Winning Romance (8-5) will catch a speed-laden field in the $100,000 Ladies Distaff S., and the four-year-old filly may prove vulnerable as the 8-5 morning line choice. The frontrunning filly didn’t get away sharply when coming up short as the 6-5 favorite in the restricted Big World S. on Nov. 18, and Winning Romance faltered at 1.30-1 odds in this event last year.

KR: #6 Il Malocchio (2-1) enters Saturday’s La Prevoyante S. at Woodbine off a graded victory in the Maple Leaf (G3), but the cutback from 1 1/4 to 1 1/16 miles gives cause for pause. She’s only 1-for-8 at the trip, and that win in last year’s Bison City S. was assisted by a fast pace that played to her stamina. While there’s speed on paper that could assist her cause again, she strikes me as too much of a hostage to fortune at a short price. And if the scenario does develop, she’s not the only one who stands to benefit.

AA: #6 Kavod (2-1) in the six-furlong Ring the Bell S. at Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The three-year-old moved up to stakes company last out when racing at today's distance and finished fourth by 2 3/4-lengths in the Bet on Sunshine S. at Churchill Downs, bringing his record at today's distance to 6-3-1-0, with one win and a second in his other two recent tries at six furlongs. The Chris Hartman pupil has the early speed to contend, but there are better horses in this field worth backing. I most like the chances of #1 Flash of Mischief (7-2), who was a distant ninth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) last out and drops in class here for trainer Karl Broberg. The Into Mischief colt romped to a 6 1/4-length win at today's distance two back in the David M. Vance S. at Remington Park, where he posted a 110 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest speed rating at today's distance among the field.

What else is worth noting?

JS: A convincing allowance scorer in her first two U.S. starts at Churchill Downs and Keeneland, Chilean import Le Da Vida will make her initial U.S. stakes attempt in Saturday’s $150,000 Mistletoe S. at Oaklawn. The five-year-old mare will be tested by much stiffer competition in the one-mile event. Ice Orchid enters on the upswing for John Ortiz, recording a fine second in the Nov. 19 Chilukki (G3) following a well-regarded allowance triumph, and Coach merits serious respect. A dominant winner of the one-mile Pippin at Oaklawn earlier this year, Coach proved vulnerable cutting back to a one-turn mile distance in the Chilukki, but she relishes a two-turn mile trip.

KR: I'm looking forward most of all to Sunday’s Hong Kong International Races (be sure to see Alastair Bull’s wagering strategies on the Edge), but want to mention Oaklawn’s eighth race on Saturday as a two-year-old maiden worth watching. #12 Parkway (9-2) might have been best-bet material with a better draw. Still, the Bill Mott pupil could overcome it with the help of Martin Garcia while adding first-time Lasix. Parkway has turned in a pair of solid building-block efforts. The Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider homebred was an educational fourth in Powerful’s Saratoga maiden that produced next-out winners Tapit’s Conquest and Full Moon Madness (the eventual Nashua [G3] runner-up). Parkway stretched out to two turns at Churchill Downs and churned on for a distant third to Denington, who came back to run a decent fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The son of Quality Road and multiple Grade 3 winner Lull, from the family of Horses of the Year Saint Liam and Gun Runner, is eligible to make another move forward.

AA: Outside of a packed stakes card on Louisiana Champions Day on Saturday, Gulfstream Park features a pair of turf stakes on its 10-race card, the Pulpit S. (Race 4) for juveniles and the Wait a While S. for two-year-old fillies. In the later, #11 Delight (5-2) was last seen finishing a distant 10th in the one-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) after romping to a five-length win in the Jessamine (G2) at Keeneland. A drop in class and cutback to 7 1/2-furlongs can help the first stakes winner for freshman sire Mendelssohn get back to the winner's circle. Hot jockey Luis Saez (22% winner at Gulfstream) will retain the mount and will also guide Pulpit morning line favorite #4 Ari Gold (9-5), who comes off a frontrunning maiden win at 1 1/16 miles at Aqueduct on Nov. 6 for Todd Pletcher.