The Jury: Bets and fades for Dec. 31

This week's TwinSpires Jury - James Scully and Kellie Reilly - convenes to discuss opinions for the New Year's Eve stakes action at Santa Anita, Gulfstream Park, and Oaklawn Park.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #5 Anacapa (4-1) in the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita. The progressing three-year-old filly won’t face an imposing group in her stakes debut, and she graduated stylishly at the six-furlong distance in late July. A close second versus allowance foes two back, Anacapa crushed rivals wire-to-wire last time, easily generating a field-best last-out 96 Brisnet Speed rating, and the Carla Gaines trainee catches a field lacking true speed. I like Anacapa on the front end with Joe Bravo.

Kellie Reilly: We're Gaines/Bravo fans around here since I've talked myself into another of their runners at Santa Anita on Saturday, #7 Closing Remarks (8-1) in the Robert J. Frankel (G3). She is just too enticing at the price, given her back class. Although the Cal-bred has not raced since a troubled fourth in the Mar. 26 Santa Ana (G3), she has a history of firing fresh for a trainer who can get them ready off the bench. The key for me is that Closing Remarks kept rallying for close seconds to the top-class Going Global in 2021. There is no comparable rival here, and her typical finish, regardless of pace scenario, might well be enough to win. 

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #1 O’Connor (8-5) in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Park. His U.S. debut was eye-catching, a six-length win over conditioned allowance foes at Gulfstream on Oct. 16, but the five-year-old didn’t break sharply that afternoon and must work out a trip from the rail Saturday in a field lacking pace. A Chilean import, O’Connor recorded his Group 1 win at 1 1/4 miles and has favored longer distances throughout his racing career. He faces better competition in the Harlan’s Holiday, and I will play against the off-the-pace runner at 1 1/16 miles.

KR: #1 Defining Purpose (7-5) looks like an awfully prohibitive price in the Year’s End S. at Oaklawn Park, where she does not tower over a field of promising juvenile fillies. The morning line reflects her Churchill Downs maiden romp, and wide-trip fifth to the smashing Hoosier Philly in the Golden Rod (G2). Defining Purpose is logical, but not a slam dunk by Brisnet Speed rating metrics. Several others have talking points at more attractive odds, including D. Wayne Lukas’s Take Charge Briana (6-1) and Unifying (12-1) for Riley Mott, both among those getting first-time Lasix like Defining Purpose. Bluelightspecial (9-2), second to Pretty Mischievous two back, employs the 40% blinkers-off move for Cipriano Contreras, and Need Some Money (12-1) and Charlee Mae (20-1) are also worth a look from a Speed figure perspective. 

What else is worth noting?

JS: I'll focus upon a pair of graded winners, Colonel Liam and Prevalence, on Saturday’s stakes-packed program at Gulfstream. Unraced since a ninth in March’s Dubai Turf (G1), Colonel Liam captured January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) in his last U.S. appearance, and the Todd Pletcher-trained gray will bring a 3-for-3 record over Gulfstream’s turf to the Ft. Lauderdale (G2). Colonel Liam looks like a huge presence in the U.S. turf ranks next season if he returns in good order and can stay healthy.

The Mr. Prospector (G3) looms as a key test for Prevalence, who appeared set for a good 2022 campaign when capturing the Commonwealth (G3) by open lengths last spring. However, the four-year-old colt weakened to last in the Churchill Downs (G1) next out and headed to the sidelines for nearly six months. Prevalence has flashed talent, registering triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings in his last two wins, but he’s been the type who seemingly needs everything to go his way or spits the bit. We’ll see if he can bounce back over his favorite track (3-for-4 at Gulfstream).

KR: The Joe Hernandez (G2) is a fascinating Saturday kickoff at Santa Anita, pitting specialist sprinters against milers on the cutback. As a card-carrying fan of #8 Hit the Road (6-1), I have an inkling that the Grade 1 veteran will put up a big effort in his long-awaited comeback. The Dan Blacker trainee was last seen finishing eighth behind Colonel Liam in the Pegasus Turf at Gulfstream, but he sports a 6-4-0-1 mark at Santa Anita. He compiled that record at a mile, so the downhill sprint scenario poses more of a question mark. Still, the addition of blinkers will keep him focused, he runs well fresh, and he gets Frankie Dettori, whose presence could well shorten the odds. There was not much between Hit the Road and Smooth Like Strait in 2021. With better luck, we will be seeing a lot more of Hit the Road in 2023. If the Hernandez experiment pans out, it would open up more options for the talented son of More Than Ready.