The Jury: Bets and fades for Feb. 11

Tampa Bay Downs hosts the most important race card on Saturday, including the Sam F. Davis (G3) and the return of champion filly Wonder Wheel in the Suncoast S. The TwinSpires Jury has scanned that program and others to come up with their best plays of the weekend.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #4 Whenlovetakesover (5-1) in Saturday’s sixth race at Aqueduct. Took money at first asking versus Uncorrelated, a nice debut winner for Chad Brown, but Whenlovetakesover missed the break and trailed far back while wide along the backstretch. He continued to lose ground while launching a nice move past rivals on the far turn, reaching second by the head of the stretch, and was nailed on the wire for place in a three-horse photo, winding up fourth. Whenlovetakesover shows a couple of quick drills in preparation, and he’ll move forward off the encouraging debut performance.

Vance Hanson: The nightcap on an 11-race Tampa Bay Downs card is an intriguing turf maiden for three-year-old fillies. Although Chad Brown has a couple debut contenders to keep an eye on, another first-timer worth considering is the Christophe Clement-trained #3 Cirilla (9-2). Not only does Clement tend to send live runners over to Tampa, but the filly has a terrific pedigree. By superstar Kingman (a 20% winner with turf debuters), she's out of a half-sister to Irish classic winner Power, Grade 1 winner Curvy, and Group 2 heroine Thakafaat. Cirilla is also kin to a pair of stakes winners already, so she looks a potentially strong contender at a square price.

Ashley Anderson: Miss J McKay is the one to beat in the Ladies’ Turf Sprint S., Race 7 at Gulfstream, but I like the value with longshot #5 Charlie T (12-1), a four-year-old Indian Charlie granddaughter making her second start off a layoff. Trained by Lee Thomas, the filly has excellent early speed and recorded 102 and 104 E1 and E2 Brisnet Speed figures last out when setting the pace in the 5 1/2-furlong Nelson J. Menard Memorial S. at Fair Grounds. She gave way in the final sixteenth to finish two lengths in second behind multiple stakes winner Oeuvre, but the cutback to five furlongs should benefit her here. Charlie T won allowances at Remington Park at today's distance in her two races prior to her stakes debut, and she has three wins and two second-place finishes in five starts at today’s distance on turf.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #5 Sibelius (9-5) in the Pelican S. at Tampa Bay Downs. His Speed ratings have dropped off in the last three starts, a pair of setbacks and a win in the Mr. Prospector (G3) in which he crawled home to beat a soft bunch. #2 Paco’s Pico (8-1) brings progressing form to his stakes debut and faced tougher in his last two allowance appearances, finishing third to Endorsed and second to Candy Man Rocket, and his Speed ratings are among the best in the field. I’ll tab the 8-1 shot on the morning line.

VH: They say if you missed the wedding that you shouldn't attend the funeral. That's the approach I'm taking in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint (G3), where #3 Belgrano (2-1) will be a drastically lower price than he was on Dec. 24, when he upset the Janus S. at Gulfstream at odds of 10-1. He's certainly a consistent and reliable contender, for the most part, but the nine-year-old hasn't strung back-to-back wins together in nearly a year and a half, and it's also worth noting his career mark over the Gulfstream turf is only 3-for-22. The time to be on him was Christmas Eve, so I'm taking a cautious approach with him here.

AA: #4 Sbagliato (7-2) is a lukewarm morning line favorite in Race 9 on Saturday at Gulfstream. The Christophe Clement pupil comes off a debut win in a one-mile turf event at this track in early December and will stretch out to 1 1/16 miles in his second career start. The three-year-old won by 1 1/2 lengths against 10 other rivals, but his Speed rating came back a bit light, at 78, and his recent workouts do not inspire much confidence for me. I’ll instead back Mark Casse trainee #1 Webslinger (4-1), who finished just four lengths behind Victoria Road in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last out and will drop in class here while adding Lasix for the first time. The Constitution gelding is well bred and should relish the stretch out to 8 1/2 furlongs. Todd Pletcher runner #5 Calycanthus (6-1) is also intriguing in his third try at today’s distance. The English Channel son will add Lasix for the first time in his first start in more than two months, and the addition of Paco Lopez (22% winner with pacesetter types) is a huge plus.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Along with Kentucky Derby qualifiers on Saturday, Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be offered this weekend. None will be appealing if they get bet down significantly from their morning line, but here are some runners I will consider the price is right Sunday afternoon: #15 Funtastic Again (30-1), #23 Hoosier Philly (50-1), #35 Tapit Trice (20-1), #34 Slip Mahoney (50-1), and #38 Verifying (15-1).

VH: Stretching out from six furlongs to nine for the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields will be a tall order for #5 Harcyn (5-1), but the Jerry Moss homebred remains with upside and has a lot of pedigree power behind him. By Goldencents, Harcyn is out of a half-sister to 2005 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Giacomo and the multiple Grade 1-winning Tiago. If Harcyn is able to relax and let a couple speedier rivals set the pace, he could prove a serious player in the late stages.

AA: #3 Key of Life (7-5) will make her three-year-old season debut in the Dixie Bell S. at Oaklawn on Saturday, where she’ll look to rebound from a third-place finish to Red Carpet Ready when sent off as the favorite in the Fern Creek S. in late November. The Churchill Downs stakes was flattered by Red Carpet Ready’s triumph in Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep the Forward Gal S. (G3) last weekend, while the second-place finisher from the Fern Creek, #7 Twirled (7-2), is also entered in the Dixie Bell. The Steve Asmussen trainee last scored a two-length win in a 5 1/2-furlong optional claimer at Oaklawn, but her Speed figures in her last two have come back slower than her maiden win at 6 1/2 furlongs, and Key of Life should have the upper hand in the renewal of their rivalry. Key of Life’s biggest threat is #4 Stone Silent (3-1), a John Sadler filly who flashed a 96 BRIS figure on debut when winning the five-furlong Fasig-Tipton Debutante S. at Santa Anita. The pacesetter will compete with Twirled for the early lead and has a chance to play spoiler here if she can get a clean break from post 4.