The Jury: Bets and Fades for Feb. 25

The domestic highlight of the racing week is the Rebel Day card at Oaklawn Park. Vance Hanson, Ashley Anderson, and Keeler Johnson have scanned that card and others for this week's Jury verdict.

What is your best bet?

Vance Hanson: #5 Dawny (8-1) couldn't keep pace with Honeybee (G3) entrant Effortlesslyelgant in her Jan. 29 debut, but outran expectations holding on for second as a 28-1 longshot and has room to take a step forward in the sixth race at Oaklawn on Saturday. Her early foot should prove an asset in a race that seemingly hasn't come up very deep, and the Larry Jones trainee is certainly likeable if anywhere close to her morning line price.

Ashley Anderson: While morning line favorite #5 Yuugiri (2-1) will be tough to beat in the six-furlong Carousel at Oaklawn, I like the chances of an upset for longshot #1 Hazy Command (10-1), who has won two straight at today's distance since joining the barn of Tom Amoss, and she drew the favorable rail post (winning at a 21% clip this meet) in her upcoming stakes effort. The four-year-old has never finished out of the money in nine starts at six furlongs, and she's 2-for-2 at this track. Amoss is also a 19% winner with horses that won their last race and a 22% winner with sprint distances.

Keeler Johnson: A deep field has assembled for Saturday’s Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, but I’m confident #1 Verifying (2-1) will deliver victory. The Brad Cox trainee placed in the Champagne (G1) as a juvenile and recently returned to action with a dominant 5 1/4-length triumph in a one-mile Oaklawn allowance. Both the runner-up (Gun Pilot) and the third-place finisher (Two Eagles River) returned to win against similar competition. Verifying enters the Rebel off fast workouts and has the ultra-hot jockey/trainer duo of Florent Geroux and Brad Cox in his corner, so the stage is set for victory. Truth be told, I think Verifying might be good enough to win the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Who is the horse to fade?

VH: #5 Yuugiri (2-1), who won the Fantasy (G3) last year, is 2-for-2 sprinting and thus a prime contender in the Carousel S. at Oaklawn. Although she's had sufficient time since her allowance prep win on Dec. 30, I still wonder whether she's a candidate to bounce off such a strong effort, which was her first race in nearly eight months. She'll also have to cope with a lot of other speed in the Carousel, including two-time local stakes winner Pretty Birdie. At the expected price, I'm taking a stand against her.

AA: #7 Candy Man Rocket (9-5) was named the morning line favorite in the Gulfstream Park Sprint, but I neither like his price or his outside post position. The Bill Mott trainee moves up in class here after winning a six-furlong allowance optional claimer by 2 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream, where he's 3-for-3, but he'll face a field loaded with speed that may be tough to catch. In particular, #5 Uncle Ernie (3-1) and #6 Lightening Larry (9-2) both look like viable win contenders who will duel for an early lead. Uncle Ernie flashed 105 and 107 Speed figures in his last two tries at six furlongs, both of which he won by a combined 11 3/4 lengths. Lightening Larry is also coming off a 2 1/2-length win in the Sunshine Sprint S. at this track and posted a bullet three-furlong workout ahead of this race.

KJ: #3 Grand Love (3-1) is the morning line favorite to win Saturday’s Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn, but she may be vulnerable in this 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Oaks qualifier. Grand Love’s lone victory came in a maiden sprint, and she lost ground from the eighth pole to the finish line when stretching out over 1 1/16 miles for the Pocahontas (G3) and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), finishing third and sixth. Grand Love isn’t a standout from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective and hasn’t run since November, so she looks vulnerable in her sophomore debut.

What else is worth noting?

VH: There are several other horses of interest I'll be taking a look at on the Rebel Day undercard. In the fifth race, #4 Uncle Buddy (8-1) got in a useful race over the track two weeks ago when a troubled third in the mud, and he's one of those generally "over-qualified" horses I recommended taking a closer look at in Oaklawn allowances.

Trainer Robertino Diodoro has a pair of interesting contenders in some later allowances. #8 Albizu (3-1) was compromised by a troubled start last time, but can rebound in the eighth race, especially if the track comes up wet. I'll also be looking at the stable's #1 Wayakin (8-1), who figures to be sharper second off the layoff and with a bullet half-mile work last week to his credit as he breaks from the inside in the ninth race.

AA: In addition to the Stymie, Race 4 on Aqueduct's Saturday card will offer another stakes, the one-mile Gander, which drew a field of five, including Triple Crown-nominated #5 Neural Network (5-2), who will break from the outside. The Chad Brown trainee was a five-length winner on debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight back in November, then finished a non-threatening fourth to Lugan Knight as the 2.45-1 second choice in the one-mile Jerome on Jan. 7. Neural Network, a son of Preakness (G1) winner Cloud Computing, is listed as the second choice on the morning line behind #4 Maker's Candy (6-5), who graduated last out in his second career start, a one-mile maiden special weight.

By Twirling Candy, the Mike Maker pupil posted a 99 Brisnet Speed rating, by far the highest last race Speed rating and best Speed figure among the field at today's distance, but Neural Network may see improvement adding blinkers for the first time — a 19% winning move for Brown — and in his first start in nearly two months. Regarding the Jerome, Brown said he hoped Neural Network's performance was a result of not handling the drying-out track that day. The Gander may help give us a better idea as to whether that was the case, and if Neural Network is a legitimate contender along the Triple Crown trail.

KJ: The six-furlong Carousel S. at Oaklawn has punched above its weight as a source of talented female sprinters in recent years. Mia Mischief, runner-up in 2019 and victorious in 2020, won the 2019 Humana Distaff (G1). Edgeway, the 2021 winner, later nabbed three graded stakes and ran second in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). Frank’s Rockette, runner-up in both 2021 and 2022, won or placed in nine other stakes during those two seasons. The favorites in Saturday’s edition are Yuugiri and Pretty Birdie, both proven graded stakes winners fresh off December sprint wins at Oaklawn. Either could develop into a division leader.