The Jury: Bets and fades for July 1

The TwinSpires jury of James Scully, Vance Hanson, and Ashley Anderson discuss their top plays for Stephen Foster Day at Ellis Park, along with graded stakes at Delaware Park, Belmont Park, and Woodbine this weekend.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: Saturday’s Fleur de Lis (G2) at Ellis Park lacks pace and #3 Royal Take Charge (6-1) will be on or close to the lead from the break. A winner in three of four starts, the four-year-old filly exits a sharp 6 3/4-length allowance score at Churchill Downs over Saturday’s distance, and Royal Take Charge looks poised for bigger and better things. The 1 1/8-mile distance is a perfect fit, and I like Royal Take Charge in her first stakes attempt.

Vance Hanson: #7 Sopran Basilea (6-1) had an encouraging U.S. debut in the May 20 Gallorette (G3) at Pimlico and can build upon that in the Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3) at Delaware Park. The Graham Motion trainee rallied late to edge for second a next-out stakes winner at Parx while finishing behind the promising Whitebeam, who races for Juddmonte and Chad Brown. Winner of Italy's best race for fillies and mares, the Premio Lydia Tesio (G2), in 2021, Sopran Basilea has sufficient back class and should greatly appreciate the step up to 1 3/8 miles here after starting out her season going 1 1/16 miles.

Ashley Anderson: #6 Hoist the Gold (1-1) may be dropping down to the allowance level after earning a fourth, a pair of second-place finishes, and an eighth in four graded stakes recently. But the Dallas Stewart pupil is still winless from five tries at seven furlongs, the distance of the seventh race at Ellis Park on Saturday, and Stewart is 0-for-9 for the meet.

Rather than back the heavy favorite, I'll take a chance with longshot #3 The Queens Jules (20-1), who will cut back in distance after racing a mile on Turfway's all-weather in his last two. The gelding will also regain jockey Florent Geroux, who won twice and finished a close second and third in four starts with the eight-year-old last season. Among those two victories, the Scat Daddy son flashed a career-best 102 Brisnet Speed figure over a sloppy track in a seven-furlong allowance at Churchill four back. With thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday, The Queens Jules will likely get similar track conditions and can pull off the upset at a distance from which he owns a 4-2-1-1 record. Trainer Thomas Van Berg is also a 32% winner with horses switching from all-weather to dirt and a 23% winner with horses coming off a layoff of more than 90 days, so there's plenty to like about this horse at a massive price.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: In his last outing, #5 Fort Bragg (8-5) surged to a clear lead entering the stretch of the Pat Day Mile (G2) but eventually gave way to General Jim, who came back to finish a well-beaten sixth in the Woody Stephens (G1) at short odds. Fort Bragg hasn’t won since erratically breaking his maiden in his lone attempt with blinkers last November, weaving in and out through the stretch that afternoon, and Bob Baffert will add the headgear again in Saturday’s Dwyer (G3) at Belmont Park. I’m concerned by how Fort Bragg has lost ground in the stretch of his last four starts, and a couple of late-blooming sophomores (Saudi Crown and Harrodsburg) have more appeal in the Dwyer.

VH: Last year's champion juvenile filly, #7 Wonder Wheel (6-5), seems undervalued in the Selene (G3) at Woodbine. Although the class of the field on paper, it's telling connections are looking to a different surface (Tapeta) to revive her fortunes. Following an upset loss in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs to kick off the season, she was well beaten in both the Ashland (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1). There's not much depth in this field, but I'm willing to take on a filly who seemingly hasn't taken a step forward from two to three.

AA: #11 Squire Creek (7-2) is a lukewarm favorite in the Maxfield Overnight S. at Ellis Park on Sunday after failing as the favorite in the six-furlong Gold Fever S. last out at Belmont. The Uncle Mo colt wired his first two starts but finished 4 3/4 lengths back in second in his first stakes attempt while posting a 93 Brisnet Speed figure last out. He'll look to bounce back off a nearly two-month layoff and will attempt to set the early pace while breaking from the outside among a field of 11. While he'll have hot jockey Florent Geroux in the saddle, and comes into this event off a sharp workout on June 25, his Speed figures rank below other race rivals, and outside posts have not fared as well in seven-furlong dirt races at Ellis. Instead, I'll look to back Chick Lang (G3) winner #1 Ryvit (6-1) out of the barn of Steve Asmussen, who's winning at a 29% clip this meet.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Set Piece may prove too tough for rivals in the Wise Dan (G2) at low odds, but I’m intrigued by #6 Kittansett (12-1) following an encouraging turf allowance win at Churchill Downs. A close fourth when making his turf debut in the Evan Williams S. at Ellis last summer, Kittansett lost all chance when breaking poorly in his next turf outing at Keeneland in April, and the six-year-old son of American Pharoah is starting to discover his best form presently, breaking through on the sod versus a short field of stakes veterans last time.

In the Tepin S. at Ellis, #9 Klassy Bridgette (15-1) will switch to turf following a troubled fourth in an Oaklawn stakes in late April. That marked the first time the three-year-old filly had finished out of the money from seven career starts, and the hard-trying daughter of Army Mule has some turf influences on both sides of her pedigree. She faces a tall task against the likes of Heavenly Sunday and Xigera, but Klassy Bridgette will be used on some tickets.

VH: Although post 1 is not ideal as he reportedly doesn't enjoy being on the receiving end of kickback, I'm not going to sleep on #1 Proxy as the 4-1 co-third choice on the morning line in the Stephen Foster (G1) at Ellis Park. Except for a dull effort in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in January off of a long layoff, his recent form has been plenty strong. He certainly isn't a dominating performer, but the five-year-old is very tough in the final stages, and the expected pace flow should help set things up for him, if Joel Rosario can keep him in the clear and interested in the early stages. The addition of cheekpieces seemed to keep him focused enough to win a thriller in the Oaklawn H. (G2) against several of these last time.

AA: Ten-time winner at Churchill Downs, #2 Bango (2-1) was 1 3/4 lengths shy of tying the record for winningest horse under the Twin Spires last out in the Aristides on June 3, as Steve Asmussen pupil Gunite drew clear at the sixteenth pole to overtake the Congrats son and spoil his historic attempt. Now the Greg Foley trainee will look to bounce back in the 6 1/2-length Kelly's Landing S., originally scheduled for Churchill until the meet was moved to Ellis Park.

Bango faces a number of recent rivals from Churchill, including Aristides third-place finisher Tejano Twist and second and third in the St. Matthews Overnight S., Miles Ahead and Surveillance.

While Bango has an affinity for the Louisville, Kentucky track, the switch to Ellis should be fine, as one of his seven career stakes victories came in the Good Lord S. at the track in 2021. That same year, he won the Kelly's Landing (then at Churchill) before placing fourth in the 2022 edition. In Saturday's renewal, he should get a favorable trip from an inside post and will regain jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who romped to a five-length win with Bango two back and scored victories in his other two previous mounts with the decorated runner.