The Jury: Bets and fades for July 15

The opening weekends at Saratoga and Colonial Downs, plus stakes action at Laurel, are some of the items in focus as the TwinSpires Jury reconvenes to offer their best plays and opinions.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #6 Filo Di Arianna (5-1) in the Kelso H. (G2) at Saratoga. Since his North American debut in 2021, the seven-year-old has recorded four wins in Canada, but Filo Di Arianna ran poorly in his first two attempts outside the friendly confines at Woodbine, recording unplaced stakes finishes at Belmont Park and Keeneland last year. He turned things around in his second appearance this year, the June 10 Poker (G3) at Belmont Park, taking serious pressure from Chez Pierre entering the far turn. That rival was odds-on following a convincing win over Up to the Mark and Modern Games in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1), and Filo Di Arianna dug in when challenged and eventually put Chez Pierre away in the stretch, only to be nailed in the final strides by four-time graded winner Emmanuel.

Filo Di Arianna won the battle but lost the war last time, and I expect him to build upon the encouraging performance in the third start off the layoff for Mark Casse. He’s cornered well on the far turn of his last two mile starts, the Poker and King Edward (G2), and Filo Di Arianna will be tracking inside speed before getting first run on the closers with Jose Ortiz.

Vance Hanson: #7 Deciding Vote (6-1) looks playable at the ML price in the Big Dreyfus S. for fillies and mares at Laurel, a nine-furlong grass test in which she finished second last year. The daughter of Mr Speaker owns a commendable record over the local lawn, including a victory in the 2022 Dahlia S., and seems to be rounding into form after finishing fourth and second in her first two outings of the season. Trainer Edward Graham has won with four of his 10 starters so far this year.

Ashley Anderson: #6 Genieinabridle (6-1) raced a mile or farther in her last four, finishing fourth, eighth, sixth, and most recently 10th, when the three-year-old tried turf for the first time. In Race 6 at Laurel, a $25K claimer, she'll return to dirt and cut back to 5 1/2 furlongs in her first start for Jamie Ness, a 38% winner at Laurel this meet and a 34% winner first off the claim. The Great Notion filly will also pick up hot jockey Jaime Rodriguez, a 22% winner this meet who is 2-for-6 paired with Ness over the last 14 days. Last season, Genieinabridle broke her maiden when wiring a six-furlong maiden claimer at this track while posting a 75 Brisnet Speed rating, close to the par winning figure for today's race conditions, and two back she clocked a 79 BRIS figure at 1 1/16 miles. A pair of sharp five-furlong workouts in July gives all the more reason to feel optimistic Genieinabridle will get back to the winner's circle while facing a field of nine other fillies and mares.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #1 Tufani (4-5) in the Brookmeade S. for Virginia-bred distaffers at Colonial Downs. Overlooked at 29-1, Tufani broke her maiden by a nose at Delaware Park two back and exits a solid entry-level allowance win at Laurel Park. She remains promising for Michael Stidham, but Tufani will be stepping up against #7 Surya (5-2), who exits a runner-up finish versus better competition at Pimlico.

A two-time winner on the Colonial Downs turf last year, Surya finished second to Belmont allowance winner Community Adjusted last time, winding up more than a length clear of third-placer Tic Tic Tic Boom, the 3-2 favorite in an open allowance later on Saturday’s card. I will fade Tufani, keying Surya on top in all wagers.

VH: Foot issues kept #2 Annapolis (8-5) out of the Poker (G3) last month, so the Grade 1 winner is entering the Kelso (G3) at Saratoga off of a bit of a layoff. He loves the Spa and has a run well in every start save the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), but doesn't it seem he's been targeting lower-hanging fruit so far this year? He narrowly escaped with a head victory in the Opening Verse S. against a field I would have expected him to assert more superiority over. This is unlikely to be his primary target this summer, and the possibility of less-than-firm ground gives me cause for pause at a short price.

AA: #6 Atomic Blonde (9-5) is a slight morning line favorite in the Big Dreyfus at Laurel in Race 5 on Saturday. The Christophe Clement pupil shipped to the U.S. after racing in Italy last fall and has failed to win in three tries on U.S. soil, coming home third in both the Orchid (G3) and Sheepshead Bay (G2) before dropping in class last out and finishing a two-length second against weaker company. I'll stand against the four-year-old, who recorded an 85 BRIS figure last out when running today's distance of 1 1/8 miles. Graham Motion trainees #3 Sparkle Blue (2-1), who flashed a 102 BRIS figure last out when third in the 1 1/2-mile Keertana S. at Churchill Downs, and stakes winner #2 Candy Light (9-2) offer more appeal, as well as #1 Community Adjusted (6-1), who won first off the claim for Arnaud Delacour last out. 

What else is worth noting?

JS: Saturday’s third race at Saratoga, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on the inner turf, drew a nice field of 11 fillies and mares, and I’m intrigued by #4 Paris Style (12-1) at a price for Kenny McPeek and Julien Leparoux. By Showcasing, a respectable sire in England, Paris Style is bred for turf, counting a Group 3 turf runner in Australia as a half-sister, and both hail from a daughter of Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) winner Unrivaled Belle, the dam of champion Unique Bella.

Paris Style has made one start, an unplaced effort on dirt at Oakawn Park, and appears to be training forwardly for her first turf appearance. McPeek and Leparoux combined to win three maiden events at the Spa last year, and seven of Leparoux’s eight Saratoga wins came either in maiden or maiden claiming events, guiding a pair of turf maiden special weight bombers, Gilcrease and Our Dream Rye’d, to victories at odds of more than 20-1.

VH: The Colonial Downs card is populated by several stakes restricted to Virginia-breds, including the Brookmeade S. for fillies and mares on the grass. A potentially interesting longshot in there is #4 Bode's Heritage (15-1), who is taking a significant step up in class from claimers and starter allowances. The race itself is not especially deep, though, due to its state-bred restrictions. As a three-year-old, Bode's Heritage has plenty of upside, and her form since moving to the grass and adding blinkers has been solid. High-percentage trainer Arnaud Delacour could have chosen a more conservative spot, but perhaps thinks this filly could be very competitive here.

AA: First-crop sire and multiple graded stakes winner Omaha Beach has already produced three winners from 10 starters and has an excellent chance to earn a fourth on Saturday in Saratoga's opening race, a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds. Sold for $350,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, #1 Pirate (4-5) is out of the Medaglia d'Oro mare Treasure, who has produced three winners from four starters, including two stakes winners, one of which is Preakness (G1) winner National Treasure. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Todd Pletcher, Pirate has the pedigree of a Triple Crown runner and has posted a number of solid works leading up to his debut, including a bullet four-furlong workout on June 29. He'll also get Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle, who's gone 33-9-6-7 over the last seven days.