The Jury: Bets and fades for July 29

July 28th, 2023

Graded stakes at Del Mar, Monmouth, and Saratoga, including the Bing Crosby (G1) and Jim Dandy (G2), highlight this week's jury featuring James Scully and Ashley Anderson.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: Anarchist (4-1) in the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar. Freshened six months after breaking his maiden last July, Anarchist opened his four-year-old season with four consecutive seconds, including a pair of Grade 3 events, before breaking through in the Jacques Cartier (G3) on Woodbine’s Tapeta in mid-May. He rallied up the inside to be a closing second to champion male sprinter Elite Power in the True North (G2) at Belmont on June 10, registering a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed rating, and returned to the worktab two weeks later, logging five works in the seven-week interim. Sharp and progressing, Anarchist is well-drawn in post 7 for a stalk-and-pounce trip.

Ashley Anderson: In Saturday's 1 1/16-mile Monmouth Oaks (G3), #4 Foggy Night (4-1) comes in off a two-win streak, including a win in the 1 1/16-mile Delaware Oaks (G3) last out, in which the three-year-old filly clocked a 94 Brisnet Speed figure, the highest last race speed rating among the field. Trainer Butch Reid strikes at a 19% rate with shippers as well as horses that won their last race, and hot jockey Paco Lopez (27% winner this meet) will retain the mount. I'll play the Distorted Humor granddaughter over Chad Brown runner #9 Occult, who failed as the favorite to today's race rival Promiseher America in the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle (G3) and then came back to finish a four-length third to Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Pretty Mischievous in the Acorn (G1) last out. The Into Mischief colt must also adjust to a new rider in Feargal Lynch.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: Defunded (8-5) won’t be controlling speed in the San Diego (G2) due to the presence of multiple Grade 3-winning sprinter Brickyard Ride. I know the five-year-old gelding likes Santa Anita, recording a pair of Grade 1 wins, but will let Defunded prove it to me at Del Mar. He didn’t have things his own way when recording a pair of unplaced stakes efforts at the seaside oval last summer, and I will go with #1 Slow Down Andy (5-1) in his second start of the season.

AA: #5 Coffeewithchris (3-1) in the seven-furlong Star De Naskra S., Laurel's fifth race on Saturday. The Ride On Curlin gelding has failed to reach the winner's circle in his last four starts, including last out in the Concern S., where he finished 4 3/4 lengths back in second at this track. Conditioner John Salzman has also struggled this meet, going 0-for-13, and jockey Jaime Rodriguez is 0-for-8 when paired with the trainer over the last two months. I'll instead back #6 Freeze the Fire (4-1) in his third career start. Trained by Cathal Lynch (6-2-1-2 this meet), the Friesan Fire three-year-old flashed a 90 BRIS figure when winning on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight and then posted a 93 BRIS figure last out when beaten as the even-money favorite in a restricted allowance at today's distance. Lynch is a 35% winner with beaten favorites and a 14% winner in non-graded stakes, while Freeze the Fire will regain rider Jorge Ruiz, who won on debut with the gray colt.

What else is worth noting?

JS:  Forte heads five in the $600,000 Jim Dandy, and I was surprised by the addition of blinkers. A winner in six of eight starts, the two-year-old champion male isn’t an inexperienced runner, and the equipment change would concern me if backing a heavy favorite. I’ll take a shot with #4 Saudi Crown (5-2) on the front end and add #1 Disarm (6-1) to any multi-race wagers.

AA: In addition to the Bing Crosby at Del Mar this weekend, there's another Breeders’ Cup WAYI Challenge Series race in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S. (G1) at Ascot on Saturday morning. The winner of this 1 1/2-mile race will receive a berth in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), and a number of runners look capable of pulling off victory among a loaded field.

Most notably, projected favorite Auguste Rodin will be looking to achieve a rare triple by claiming the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby, and King George in the same year. Espom Derby runner-up King of Steel will be back for a rematch here as well, while older notables in the mix include Coronation Cup winner Emily Upjohn, defending King George champ Pyledriver, and Hukum, who beat Desert Crown in the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown when returning from injury in May. For more detailed insights on the King George, be sure to check out my colleague Kellie Reilly's spotlight piece on Edge.

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