The Jury: Bets and fades for July 8

Closing weekend of the spring/summer meet at Belmont Park and the signature race days at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Delaware Park, and Prairie Meadows are the highlights of U.S. racing as the TwinSpires Jury reconvenes with their best opinions and insight.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #3 Call Me Fast (9-2) to earn his first stakes win in Saturday’s Cornhusker (G3) at Prairie Meadows. A maiden winner last October, the four-year-old gelding never fired after breaking poorly in his stakes debut, March’s Essex (G3) at Oaklawn, and trainer Mike Puhich removed blinkers afterward. Call Me Fast responded with a pair of strong showings, finishing second to Rattle N Roll in the Ben Ali (G3) and Blame (G3), and he looks poised to break through in the Cornhusker.

Vance Hanson: Trainer Chad Brown is taking multiple shots at winning the Belmont Oaks (G1) for a seventh time, and of the two I prefer #7 Aspray (6-1). Undefeated from three starts, the regally-bred filly made a favorable impression in her stakes debut in the May 19 Hilltop S. at Pimlico, rallying from an 11-length deficit to score by a measured half-length. The daughter of Quality Road and the Group 2-winning Galileo mare Up figures to relish the extra quarter-mile here and might be overlooked a smidge in the market as rivals with graded/group form command more attention.

Ashley Anderson: #6 Bo Cruz (9-2) will drop in class in the $250,000 Iowa Derby after placing third to Disarm in the Matt Winn (G3) at Ellis Park last out. In his first graded stakes attempt, the Creative Cause colt set the pace along the inside before giving way and finishing 5 1/4 lengths behind the fourth-place finisher in this year’s Kentucky Derby (G1). The Al Stall Jr. trainee posted triple-digit E1 and E2 figures in the 1 1/8-mile event and may improve with the slight cutback in distance. Stall is an 18% winner in non-graded stakes and a 35% winner third start off a layoff. Cristian Torres, who strikes at a 24% clip with pacesetter types, will pick up the mount.

I’ll back the three-year-old over morning line favorite #8 Eyeing Clover (3-1), who was caught late to finish a neck third in the Texas Derby last out and will get a new rider in Ricardo Santana Jr., just an 11% winner with route distances.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: Maple Leaf Mel (9-5) exits a sharp win in her first open start, dominating the Miss Preakness (G3) on the lead, but Dazzling Blue has serious speed to her inside and Red Carpet Ready will be up close prompting the unbeaten New York-bred filly in Saturday’s Victory Ride (G3) at Belmont Park. I will take a stand against the favorite, siding with #1 Interpolate (5-1) from off the pace.

VH: It's the most uninspiring renewal of the Suburban (G2) at Belmont Park that I can recall in 35-some years of following the sport, but I'm not sold on #4 Charge It (3-5) benefiting from lackluster competition. Hindered by infirmities after a 23-length score in the Dwyer (G3) last summer, Charge It kicked off his four-year-old season with a fine allowance win, but has since been an underwhelming force in the older male ranks. Losing at short odds in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) and Oaklawn H. (G2), he was most recently fourth in the Met Mile (G1) over the same track and distance as his Dwyer victory. This company is much softer, obviously, but he hasn't really gotten it together this year and will be no bargain stepping up to 1 1/4 miles.

AA: #11 The Foxes (7-2) is the lukewarm morning line favorite in the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby (G1) among a competitive field of 11. The Irish-bred colt drew the far outside post for his first U.S. start and will cut back in distance after 1 1/2 miles proved to be a bit too far for him in the Epsom Derby (G1) last out. The two-time Group 2 winner scored a victory two back at 1 5/16 miles in the Dubai Dante S. (G2), with his other Group 2 tally coming at a mile. But the move to the U.S. leaves some doubt, especially after connections revealed The Foxes struggled in the heat while working out at Belmont earlier this week, and temperatures should be fairly similar on Saturday. Rather than back the Andrew Balding pupil, I'll play #8 Kalik (5-1), who wired the 1 1/8-mile Pennine Ridge S. (G2) last out while beating a handful of today's race rivals. The Chad Brown runner has shown improvement with each of his three starts this campaign, all of which resulted in victories and increased Brisnet Speed figures, and he'll retain regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., a 27% winner at Belmont this meet.

What else is worth noting?

JS: #5 Verifying (8-5) is a threat to outclass rivals in Saturday’s 1 1/16-mile Indiana Derby (G2), but I’m not keen on him at two-turn distances — we’ve seen what the chestnut has to offer losing six stakes. He surrendered a lead in upper stretch for the third time in the June 11 Matt Winn, weakening to second, and losing ground in the final furlong of route races has become an unfavorable trait for Verifying. Despite his pedigree, Verifying deserves the opportunity to cut back in distance, he may possibly thrive in sprint races, and I will tab an upset pick, #1 Transect (15-1), in the Indiana Derby.

VH: #9 McLovin (10-1) is a horse that's seemingly been hard to keep in prime racing condition over the past several years. Nonetheless, he's an intriguing black-type newcomer in the Jonathan B. Schuster Memorial at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The Team Valor homebred's 2022 campaign was cut short after four starts, but not before he broke his maiden and added two allowance wins. His lone setback was at Belmont when facing Soldier Rising, runner-up this term in the Man o' War (G1) and Manhattan (G1). It's possible McLovin will need longer than this 1 1/16-mile trip, but he remains with upside, and the trainer/jockey combo of Rodolphe Brisset and Alex Achard has been a highly productive one over the past couple of seasons.

AA: Black-Eyed Susan (G2) hero #2 Taxed (2-1) won the 1 1/8-mile event as an 11-1 choice, which my colleague Vance accurately predicted, and will now enter Saturday's Indiana Oaks (G3) as the 2-1 second choice on the morning line, with 20-1 longshot winner of the Ashland (G1), #5 Defining Purpose, the 8-5 morning line favorite among a field of seven.

Defining Purpose will make her first start since weakening to seventh in the 1 1/8 mile Kentucky Oaks (G1), with an 87 BRIS figure, but a return off a layoff could help her get back to the winner's circle. The Kenny McPeek pupil should get the better of the Collected filly, who's 0-for-4 from 1 1/16 miles, but both have posted sharp workouts ahead of this event, and could end up in a stretch duel to the finish. However, I'll look for an upset of both former upset winners and back #3 Merlazza (6-1), who posted triple-digit E1 and E2 figures last out in the Black-Eyed Susan before weakening to fifth. The Brad Cox trainee can improve off the layoff here and will get high-percentage jockey Marcelino Pedroza, a 19% winner this meet, who is 3-for-6 paired with Cox over the last 14 days. Merlazza also showed good late kick two back when winning a non-graded stakes and can close late to score a win at a decent price.