The Jury: Bets and fades for June 17

A scaled-down TwinSpires Jury focuses their attention on stakes and undercard action at Monmouth, Ellis, and Belmont this weekend.

What is your best bet?

Vance Hanson: The seventh race at Monmouth Park, a 1 1/16-mile maiden on the turf for three and up, looks like a good spot for #Feral's Joy (5-1) to bounce back to form. Second in his debut over the course last summer, he likely needed his comeback race at Laurel in mid-April and last time was caught behind a slow pace in a Belmont maiden in which he was already an underdog going in as a 20-1 chance. The waters are less deep here and there appears enough pace to ensure a seemingly favorable setup from midpack. 

Ashley Anderson: #2 Tommy Gun (10-1) went gate to wire when romping to an 8 3/4-length win in a state-restricted maiden claimer last out in his first start since transferring to the barn of Mike Maker, a 21% winner at Belmont this meet. Now the four-year-old gelding moves up to the allowance level (in Saturday's seventh race at Belmont) and can take another step forward in his second start off a layoff, a winning move for Maker 20% of the time. Jose Ortiz (26% winner at Belmont) will pick up the mount with his brother, Irad, sticking with #3 Always Charming (7-2), who won a $50K allowance last out when racing 6 1/2 furlongs. But I'll take a shot with Tommy Gun at a price here. He's put in a trio of sharp workouts leading up to this race, and Jose Ortiz is a 25% winner with early pacesetter types. Maker is also a 16% winner at the allowance level and a 17% winner with horses coming off a maiden victory.

Who is the horse to fade?

VH: Two-turn races over one mile are often tricky for both handicappers and horses, so I'm taking a lukewarm approach to #9 Artorius, the 3-1 morning line favorite for the Salvator Mile (G3) at Monmouth. After showing much promise last summer winning two of his first three starts, the Juddmonte homebred was found out facing division heavyweights in the Travers (G1). He then proved ineffective cutting back to seven furlongs, making no impact against some of the faster sprinters of his generation in the Perryville S. at Keeneland. Although he remains with potential, this race has the feel of one he might need in order to shake off some of the rust accumulating since last running in October.

AA: In Saturday's Eatontown S. (G3) at Monmouth, #8 Gina Romantica (3-1) was named the morning line favorite among a field of eight and will make her first start of the season after winning the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 15. The Chad Brown runner broke from an inside post and tracked the pace before kicking clear to win by 1 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/8-mile event. In the Eatontown, the Into Mischief filly drew the far outside post, which may cause her some trouble, and she'll get a new rider in Florent Geroux (a 13% winner on turf and a 12% winner with presser types), who's replacing Flavien Prat. Off the long layoff and breaking from a low-percentage post, I'll look elsewhere and side with Shug McGaughey runner #1 Surprisingly (7-2), who switches to the leading rider at Monmouth, Paco Lopez. The four-year-old is also 2-for-3 from today's distance with a career-best 92 Brisnet Speed figure, the highest speed rating among the field from today's distance, and won the Endeavour (G3) at 1 1/16 miles on Tampa Bay's turf three back.

What else is worth noting?

VH: If #5 Commandeer (5-1) can run back to or improve upon his turf debut at Keeneland, in which he missed by a diminishing neck to Group 2 winner Royal Patronage in an April 20 allowance, he might turn in a mild surprise in the Monmouth (G3) going 1 1/8 miles on the turf. The Street Boss gelding was ineffective in a trio of stakes appearances on the main track for Jimmy Toner during 2022, but turned in a surprisingly strong run in that Keeneland race, despite a troubled trip and having to overcome the effects of a nine-month layoff. He concedes back class to most of these, but seems to be going well at the moment for a barn that's clicked at 29% this season.

AA: In Saturday’s Monomoy Girl Overnight S., Kentucky Oaks (G1) morning line favorite and fourth-place finisher Wet Paint will square off with Hoosier Philly, who scratched as an also-eligible from the premier race for three-year-old fillies on May 5. Hoosier Philly was red-hot to start her career, reeling off three straight, including a win in the Golden Rod (G2), at Churchill, but she struggled at the start of her three-year-old campaign, placing third in the Rachel Alexandra (G2) before coming home fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). However, the Tom Amoss pupil seemingly turned a corner last out in the Black-Eyed Susan S. (G2), finishing second to 11-1 winner Taxed in the 1 1/8-mile event. The Into Mischief filly will cut back to a mile here after setting the pace along the inner rail but failing to hold off Taxed in the drive at Pimlico. While her counterpart Wet Paint will likely go off as the favorite, Hoosier Philly’s early speed running style may be better suited for today’s distance and could give her a leg up on Wet Paint, especially with a lack of true speed signed on. While Wet Paint will look to close late, Hoosier Philly should be able to get out front early and potentially control this race from the start.