The Jury: Bets and fades for March 12

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, is back with thoughts on this weekend's stakes action, which is highlighted by the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and an intriguing renewal of the Azeri (G2) for fillies and mares.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #5 Ce Ce (3-1) had no chance against an impressive winner in the Santa Monica (G2) last time, but the second-place effort served as a perfect prep for her return to Oaklawn Park in the Azeri. The classy mare captured the 2020 Apple Blossom H. (G1) in Hot Springs, and she projects to receive the perfect stalking trip as Lady Mystify and Super Quick figure to be winging it and Shedaresthedevil may be fresh off the bench. Ce Ce should be rolling late.

Kellie Reilly: I expected #6 Rocky Sky (9-2) to be another stellar European recruit for Chad Brown, but she flopped in her Saratoga premiere and headed to the sidelines. Now the four-year-old gets Irad and Lasix in her Hillsborough (G2) comeback at Tampa. Her physique suggested she'd come into her own as older horse, so she brings plenty of upside. Although a rain-softened turf course is another variable, the Irish-bred by Rock of Gibraltar might cope better than most. 

Vance Hanson: Given the present uncertainty of what surface will be used and its condition due to the forecast of rain, #8 On Alert (8-1) might be one to consider in the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa. The Shug McGaughey trainee rebounded from a career-opening loss, in which she broke slowly, to post a victory against maiden foes and then followed up with a respectable third in an allowance, both over the Gulfstream turf. Not only does she look like a filly headed in the right direction, but her pedigree suggests she would also fit very well on dirt, especially a wet one, if necessary. By Medaglia d'Oro, she's out of a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Heavenly Love and Grade 2 heroine Forever Darling.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #4 Dynamic One (5-2) and #3 Greatest Honour (3-1) in the Challenger (G3). Dynamic One, whose only wins have come in a restricted stakes and a maiden race, will make his first appearance since a seventh in the Travers (G1), and the late runner is eligible to need one. Greatest Honour hasn't started since a belated third in last year's Florida Derby (G1), and the confirmed closer is eligible to leave himself plenty to do behind a moderate pace.

KR: Dynamic One in the Challenger. Not only is he an unattractive price off the layoff in a deep field, but 1 1/16 miles is shorter than his preferred trip. Unless he's improved markedly from three to four, I'd expect him to close belatedly for a minor award at best rather than outkick them all to win.

VH: Although she captured the 2020 Apple Blossom, Ce Ce did not set the world afire in any of her subsequent two-turn attempts in California. There were good reasons why the mare's connections decided to concentrate on one-turn races last year, and it worked out splendidly as she wound up being voted champion female sprinter. There's certainly a possibility she'll appreciate the return to Oaklawn on Saturday enough to win the Azeri, and she might get a favorable trip behind a potentially contested pace, but I'm usually wary of accepting a short price on a horse deviating from what's obviously working.

What else is worth noting?

JS: #4 Classic Causeway (8-5) was visually impressive winning the Sam F. Davis (G3), but he's failed to earn a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating in four career starts, including three stakes. The prohibitive favorite may have a pace advantage in the Tampa Bay Derby, but I'm leery to support at short odds until he runs fast. Let's see if Classic Causeway can change the narrative.

KS: I'm fascinated by #10 Shirl's Speight (6-1) going turf-to-dirt in the Challenger. Remember when he was working like a beast on Woodbine's dirt training track, as connections were entertaining the pandemic-delayed 2020 Kentucky Derby (G1)? The Roger Attfield trainee could thrive on a Tampa surface conducive to turfy types. And an off track might not faze the son of 21% mud sire Speightstown. Also, in Saturday's fourth race at Fair Grounds, I'm eager to see how #5 Dazzling Sun (8-1) fares in her U.S. debut for Brad Cox. As a South African import who's been off for 14 months, she could need this race, but the regally-bred daughter of Camelot was tried at the highest level in her homeland.

VH: #8 Commandperformance figures to go off at about 1-5 in Tampa's fifth race on Saturday, a maiden event over one mile and 40 yards. The Champagne (G1) runner-up disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) when finishing fourth, but it will still be interesting to see what kind of development he's made over the winter. Although he seems a bit behind the eight ball in possibly making the Kentucky Derby, we might be able to glean clues as to his comparative talent as the race on Saturday is not much shorter than the Tampa Bay Derby. If his performance stacks up well, perhaps he'll try a Derby prep next out. If not, he could be one to watch for in the Belmont S. (G1).