The Jury: Bets and fades for March 19

The TwinSpires Jury, consisting this week of Kellie Reilly, Ashley Anderson, and Blaise Bollman, is back with thoughts on this weekend's racing action. Oaklawn Park hosts a pair of graded stakes on Saturday, and Gulfstream Park, Laurel, and Turfway Park are also on the radar. 

What's Your Best Bet?

Kellie Reilly: After a confidence-boosting allowance romp, #3 Warrior’s Charge (7-2) can get back in the stakes winner’s circle in the Essex H. (G3) at Oaklawn. The son of Munnings is 6-for-7 at the 1 1/16-mile trip, with the lone loss coming by a nose, and he projects a favorable trip. Although winless last season, Warrior’s Charge was chasing the likes of Maxfield, Mind Control, and Silver State. At his best, I think he’s more brilliant than Brad Cox stablemate and 2-1 favorite #4 Plainsman. For potential value, #2 Title Ready (12-1) could be poised to fire one of his better efforts for Dallas Stewart.

Ashley Anderson: John Ortiz trainee #9 Hollis (3-1) has a shot at redemption against 5-2 favorite Bob's Edge in the Whitmore S. (G3) at Oaklawn on Saturday. Following a fifth-place finish in the King Cotton S. at this track on Jan. 29, the son of Street Sense rebounded to win at 5 1/2 furlongs in an optional claiming race at Oaklawn on Feb. 20. The bay gelding triumphed by 4 1/4 lengths over second-place finisher #1 No Shirt No Shoes (12-1), who re-opposes here, and hit a 99 Brisnet Speed rating. With Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard, Hollis should be in for a good trip from post 9.

Blaise Bollman: Hollis in the Whitmore. The seven-year-old son of Street Sense conditioned by John Ortiz looks to produce a repeat performance in Hot Springs, Arkansas, at his favorite oval. This gelding has had three wins in five outings at Oaklawn Park including a new track record going 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:02.17 last time out. The outside post position does not bring about any concerns. Jockey Ricardo Santana should be able to navigate a nice stalking trip behind a couple pace setters in this six-furlong sprint.

Who is the horse to fade?

KR: #2 Bob’s Edge smacks of a vulnerable 5-2 morning-line favorite in Oaklawn’s Whitmore. He ranks as the 124-pound highweight off a new career high in the King Cotton S., where he was a 7-1 chance outfinishing 27-1, 14-1, and 61-1 longshots, while all the principals flopped. This spot could prove tougher, with up-and-coming #7 Tulane Tryst eligible to make a big splash, win machine #3 Greeley and Ben in the line-up, and the re-opposing #9 Hollis more favorably drawn than in the King Cotton.

AA: The morning-line favorite in Saturday's Cicada S. at Aqueduct may have a quality pedigree, but #1 Rosebug (5-2) will likely be outmatched in the six-furlong trip for three-year-old fillies. The daughter of American Pharoah last raced 55 days ago at 1 1/8 miles and finished fourth in the Busanda S. Saturday's six-horse field is brimming with talent that should challenge the Bill Mott trainee in her second trip of the season. #4 Lady Milagro (5-1) is an intriguing value play following her decisive win at six furlongs in an optional claiming race at Aqueduct on Feb. 24.

BB: #6 Club Car (7-5) makes her 2022 seasonal debut this evening at Turfway Park in the Queen S. going six furlongs for trainer Ben Colebrook. Yes, she has faced the likes of Bell’s The One who is an excellent older female sprinter, but I will not trust that form tonight in Florence, Kentucky. 

What else is worth noting?

KR: Although there are no Road to the Kentucky Derby scoring races this weekend, a couple of Saturday stakes are worth watching for promising three-year-olds. Triple Crown nominee #4 Nitrous Channel (7-5) will try to back up his sharp debut score in the Hutcheson S. at Gulfstream Park. The Private Terms S. at Laurel shapes up as a competitive affair, with #3 Majestic Frontier (6-1) intriguing as a Keen Ice gelding who should appreciate stretching back out for high-percentage connections.

AA: Gulfstream has plenty to offer on Saturday, with three stakes races — the Any Limit, Silks Run, and the Hutcheson. In the Any Limit, #5 Spirit Wind will be coming off a decisive win at six furlongs back on Feb. 18 but will be pushed by #6 Strategic Bird (9-5), who finished third in the seven-furlong Gasparilla S. at Tampa Bay Downs on Jan. 15, and will likely improve at the shorter distance. #4 Nitrous Channel (7-5) is the horse to beat in the Hutcheson, but the Silks Run on turf is a bit more wide-open.  #3 Arrest Me Red (5-2) went undefeated in three starts in 2021 and will make his debut at Gulfstream on Saturday. #5 Chess Master (7-2) and #9 Yes I Am Free (4-1) are both coming off wins at five furlongs in mid-February, while #6 Belgrano (10-1) is an intriguing play with Jose Ortiz picking up the mount.