The Jury: Bets and fades for March 26
The TwinSpires Jury, consisting of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson, are back with thoughts on this weekend's stakes action, highlighted domestically by Louisiana Derby Day at Fair Grounds and overseas by the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1).
What is your best bet?
James Scully: #4 Gam's Mission (7-2) concluded her three-year-old season on a good note, rallying boldly to just miss in the Winter Memories S. after stumbling out of the gate, and she returns in Saturday's Tom Benson Memorial at Fair Grounds. A winner in her lone start on Fair Grounds' turf last year, the Grade 3 scorer favors the 1 1/16-mile distance (2-for-3), and she won't face the stiffest competition. I like Gam's Mission's chances for Cherie DeVaux.
Kellie Reilly: One of Wesley Ward's Royal Ascot team from last summer, #7 Ruthin (7-2), returns in Saturday night's Serena's Song S. at Turfway Park. The Stonestreet Stables runner was a runaway debut winner on the Keeneland turf, propelling her to 3-1 favoritism versus males in the Windsor Castle S. But she tired to seventh in a 27-horse field, beaten about 3 1/2 lengths, and headed to the sidelines. Ruthin was training sharply at Palm Meadows this winter before dropping off the worktab for a month, then resumed at Stonestreet's Training Center. Her most recent move was a half in :47.80, suggesting she's ready for this six-furlong dash. If Ward doesn't scratch her, Ruthin could be sitting on a big effort.
Vance Hanson: The race flow perhaps could work against him, but it'll be hard for me to pass up the expected price on #6 Chess Chief (8-1) in his title defense of the New Orleans Classic (G2). The bottom line is that the Dallas Stewart trainee brings his A-game every time he sets foot on the Fair Grounds oval (10-5-1-2), and is a complete bet-against everywhere else (0-for-21). Although he does tend to just scrape by, winning last year's New Orleans by a head at a miserly 5-1 and the Dec. 26 Tenacious S. by a nose at a juicier 10-1, I appreciate the fighting instinct he possesses. Race favorite Olympiad does look imposing on paper, but I anticipate Chess Chief giving me a viable run for my investment.
.@ReyGutiJockey scores the riding double, taking the $100K Tenacious Stakes aboard Chess Chief! Thank you to @DallasStewart3 and his team for the win pic.twitter.com/OHxo2TPQy5
— Jose Santos Jr. (@joesantos_33) December 26, 2021
Who is the horse to fade?
JS: Listed as the 2-1 morning favorite in Saturday's Muniz Memorial Classic (G2) at Fair Grounds, #2 Sacred Life (2-1) projects to be even shorter odds at post time given the amount of pace entered in the 1 1/8-mile race. However, the seven-year-old has lost five straight when favored, winning only two of 11 starts since October 2019, and his best distances are a mile or 1 1/16 miles. I'll play against the inconsistent performer.
KR: The Dubai World Cup Day races are too deep and contentious for me to be confident in any opinion, pro or con. Still, my reflexive distrust of #11 Pinehurst (3-1) in the UAE Derby (G2) counts as a fade. Granted, Meydan can carry his speed farther than in the Saudi Derby (G3), where he desperately hung on looking for the wire. But the Bob Baffert pupil has to see out an extra three-sixteenths of a mile against an arguably deeper field. And his only prior two-turn attempt was also the poorest of his life, a fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) that hasn't worked out too well.
VH: The Chad Brown-trained duo of #2 Sacred Life and #3 Devamani (5-2) are both fades for me in the Muniz Memorial. Both are talented and fast enough to win this renewal, which is a bit more modest than in recent years, but neither looks particularly attractive at the estimated odds. Sacred Life, frankly, has been an underachiever since his importation from France, disappointing at short odds in a variety of spots and failing to win above Grade 3 level. Devamani, meanwhile, has been on the sidelines for much of the past year and a half and has generally shown a preference for ground softer than what he'll likely encounter on Saturday.
While grappling with the fantastic Dubai World Cup card at Meydan on Saturday, here are five storylines to watch from @GallantFox1930 ⬇️ https://t.co/5Kr0pljdeH
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) March 24, 2022
What else is worth noting?
JS: A pair of runners from a six-furlong maiden special weight on the Feb. 19 Risen Star Day undercard, runner-up #1 Marsalis (9-5) and seventh-placer #7 Tepeu (8-1), are entered in separate maiden tilts Saturday at Fair Grounds, and I expect both to run well from an anticipated key race. Marsalis ran big on the front end, dueling throughout with Todd Pletcher's Momentous before falling a head short, and the well-bred Curlin colt wound up well clear of third. Installed as the 9-5 morning line choice, Marsalis looks extremely imposing in the seventh race for Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. Tepeu got away slowly and made no impact at six furlongs on the main track last time, but he's eligible to thrive stretching out to two turns on turf. A half-brother to a pair of turf winners, the Tapit colt hails from an extremely classy female family, and he should run much better at second asking for Brendan Walsh and Tyler Gaffalione in the second race.
KS: In the Louisiana Derby (G2), I'm really looking forward to seeing how much #9 Rattle N Roll (6-1) has moved forward off the Fountain of Youth (G2). The step up to 1 3/16 miles at Fair Grounds is a better fit for him than 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream Park. If Epicenter gets early pressure, Rattle N Roll can make his 6-1 morning line look generous. Also, Godolphin could have a productive day from Dubai to New Orleans. #5 Proxy (5-2), who was mixing it up with Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon, and Hot Rod Charlie on last year's Road to the Kentucky Derby here, tries the New Orleans Classic as an improved four-year-old. And #9 Santin (7-2), whose inexperience might have caught him out last time, could be savvier in the Muniz Memorial.
VH: Besides the goings-on at Meydan and Fair Grounds, I'm personally excited that the British flat (turf) season kicks off Saturday at Doncaster, highlighted by the famed Lincoln Handicap. While the action in Britain doesn't really kick into a high gear until the Craven meeting at Newmarket in mid-April, the ability to watch and wager on racing from the sport's mother country has been a true delight to me for more than a decade. Following the action from over there is a refreshing respite from the general monotony of the domestic product and often yields terrific wagering opportunities (e.g. Royal Ascot). This is all a heads-up to long-time readers that a number of opinions I might be sharing in this space from now through the end of October may have a noticeable English flavor.
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