The Jury: Bets and fades for March 4

A huge day of racing is on tap Saturday at both Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita, with Kentucky Derby (G1) and Kentucky Oaks (G1) preps at Aqueduct and Turfway Park adding appeal. James Scully, Vance Hanson, and Ashley Anderson have scoured the country for their best opinions on what is shaping up as a fantastic day of sport.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #10 Moonage Daydream (12-1) in the Herecomesthebride (G3) at Gulfstream Park. Last seen recording a sharp wire-to-wire win in the six-furlong Stewart Manor S. at Aqueduct last November, Moonage Daydream should relish the stretch out to a mile with her bloodlines, and there’s no serious speed among her 11 rivals. I’ll tab the Jorge Abreu-trained Candy Ride filly for a frontrunning win.

Vance Hanson: #10 Value Engineering (6-1) doesn't have as many miles under him as you might expect for a seven-year-old, and he seemingly enters the Mac Diarmida (G2) at Gulfstream in peak form for trainer Mike Maker, who only acquired the gelding within the last few months and has won the Mac Diarmida three of the last four years. Value Engineering has run two solid races for Maker, including a second-place finish in the William L. McKnight (G3) last out when he found only classier stablemate Red Knight better. With a continuation of his recent form, Value Engineering can be a major player in this spot.

Ashley Anderson: #1 Atomically (8-1) failed as the favorite last out in the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G3), won by Red Carpet Ready, who re-opposes the daughter of Girvin in Saturday’s Davona Dale (G3), a Kentucky Oaks prep worth points on a 50-20-15-10-5 basis. Three back, Atomically romped to a 6 3/4-length win in the 1 1/16-mile Florida Sire My Dear Girl S. at Gulfstream while under the guidance of trainer Jose Pinchin. The three-year-old will regain jockey Edgar Perez, her rider from Gulfstream last season who went 2-for-3 with the filly, and she’ll make her second start off a layoff, a winning move 24% of the time for Todd Pletcher. The trainer is also a 22% winner with horses transitioning from a sprint to a route and a 17% winner in graded stakes. If Atomically goes off near her 8-1 morning line price, she’s worth a shot in the one-mile Davona Dale.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #2 National Treasure (3-1) and #7 Hejazi (7-2) are the top two choices on the morning line in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita, but I prefer others in the 11-horse field. Hejazi relished the cutback to a sprint as lone speed last time, but he won’t receive an easy setup here. National Treasure was underwhelming finishing third at odds-on in the Sham (G3) last out, and his best race also came at a sprint. The competition gets much steeper Saturday for the short-priced runners.

VH: Perhaps a confidence-boosting win is what connections feel is in the best interest of #2 White Abarrio (6-5), who is heavily favored in Gulfstream's seventh race, a conditioned allowance over seven furlongs. However, last year's Florida Derby (G1) winner was an underwhelming eighth in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) last time, which was his first loss in five outings over the Gulfstream strip. His third-place effort two back in the Cigar Mile (G1) was really good, though, which makes me wonder why we're not seeing him later on the card in the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2), a spot more suitable for a horse of his caliber. Perhaps I'm reading too much into it, but the last-out dud and the curious placing on Saturday's card makes me take a cautious view on this horse at a very short price.

AA: #6 Agent Peter Graves (7-2) is a lukewarm morning line favorite in Gulfstream’s opening race on Saturday, a five-furlong allowance optional claimer on turf. The five-year-old gelding is 0-for-4 in his last four starts and last visited the winner’s circle when wiring a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Canterbury in June 2022. Since joining the barn of Bill Mott, he’s finished fourth, third, and a half-length fifth in three starts, all between five and 5 1/2 furlongs. In a competitive field of 12, Agent Peter Graves is a vulnerable favorite.

I instead like both Todd Pletcher runners, #4 Under Oath (4-1), who makes his first start on grass after wiring a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Saratoga, and #10 Meetmeinkingston (9-2), who wired a five-furlong allowance optional claimer on turf in late January while posting a career-best turf Speed rating of 92. #1 Firecrow (8-1) is also intriguing. He finished just two lengths in fourth in the 2021 Turf Monster S. (G3) two back while trained by Ron Moquett and came home 4 1/4 lengths behind Golden Pal in the 2021 Woodford (G2) before hitting the shelf. He’ll make his first start in over a year for new trainer Saffie Joseph, a 23% winner with horses making their first start with him and a 24% winner with horses coming off a layoff of more than 90 days. Jose Ortiz in the saddle is a huge plus.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Gilmore and Bromley are the top draws in the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway Park, and while neither would be a surprise in the winner’s circle, I’ll mention a couple of intriguing contestants at better odds. #6 American Speed (6-1) ran into a buzz saw (Funtastic Again) when making his first start for Brad Cox, an initial attempt over a synthetic track, in the Jan. 21 Leonatus S. at Turfway, but finished a respectable second. Angel of Empire moved forward significantly for Cox in his second stakes attempt, upsetting the Risen Star (G2), and American Speed may have more to offer on Saturday. I liked the local maiden win from #8 Miranda Rights two starts back, and the Mark Casse-trained son of Constitution experienced a troubled trip when finishing third versus allowance rivals last time. He’ll benefit from the experience and is one to consider, at the least, for the vertical exotics.

VH: Reigning Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher is poised to have a potentially huge day at Gulfstream. In addition to saddling Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2), Pletcher also has heavy favorites Charge It and Emmanuel in the Gulfstream Park Mile and Canadian Turf (G3), respectively; leading contender Cairo Consort in the Herecomesthebride (G3); and a trio of top players in the Colonel Liam S. The barn is also seemingly loaded in most of the overnight races that make up the undercard, including first-time starter Illustrated in the fourth race, a seven-furlong maiden for three-year-olds. A $1.1 million purchase last year, Illustrated is a Justify half-brother to Pletcher's Belmont S. (G1) winner Tapwrit.

AA: Between the San Felipe and Gotham (G3), two of four Kentucky Derby prep races on Saturday, Tim Yakteen will send out six horses, five of which are making their first start with the trainer after being transferred from the barn of Bob Baffert. The lone runner who has been conditioned by Yakteen for the entirety of his career in the San Felipe is Practical Move, a 4-1 choice in the 1 1/16-mile event, and he may have the best chance of Yakteen's bunch in this event. #2 National Treasure (3-1), a new addition to Yakteen's barn, is listed as the morning line favorite, but the Quality Road colt has yet to win since breaking his maiden in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint at Del Mar. In his last three starts, he placed a distant second to Cave Rock in the American Pharoah (G1), then finished third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) and Sham.

Practical Move last drew away to win by 3 1/4 lengths in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at today's distance and flashed a 105 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last race speed rating and best dirt speed figure among the field. Yakteen's also a 16% winner with horses that won their last race but just an 8% winner with horses making their first start with the trainer, giving Practical Move the advantage over new stablemates National Treasure, #7 Hejazi (7-2), #9 Fort Bragg (8-1), and #11 Mr Fisk (15-1).