The Jury: Bets and fades for Oct. 15-16

A pair of graded three-year-old filly stakes on turf and British Champions Day at Ascot are among the highlights of this weekend's stakes action. James Scully and Vance Hanson cover these races and other in this week's edition of the TwinSpires Jury.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #2 Vergara (9-2) in the Sands Point (G2). A juvenile stakes winner on Aqueduct's turf, Vergara did not move forward at age three, opening the season with three lackluster performances. I'm throwing those performances out. The Graham Motion-trained filly has turned things around since returning from a two-month freshening in early August, recording a head second in the Ontario Cotillion (G3) at Woodbine before shipping to Kentucky Downs to gamely annex the Dueling Grounds Oaks on Sept. 5. Her affinity for Aqueduct's turf is an edge, and Vergara will put her tactical foot to good use from an inside post.

Vance Hanson: Looking ahead to Sunday's Franklin (G3) at Keeneland, #8 Bout Time (6-1) is likeable, lightly-raced contender in the 5 1/2-furlong turf dash for fillies and mares. An impressive winner in three of her first four attempts on the grass, including the Goldwood S. at Monmouth Park, she was clearly below par last time in the Caress (G3) at Saratoga when a fading sixth to a rival she had previously beaten in the Goldwood. She enters this freshened by trainer Cherie DeVaux and could work out an ideal stalking trip with most of the speed breaking inside of her.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #7 Sunny River (8-5) will head postward as the favorite for her fourth consecutive maiden special weight in Saturday's sixth race at Keeneland, losing the last two at even-money and 4-5, and the gray filly won't get an easy lead in her two-turn debut with a couple of speedy rivals drawn to the inside. She's been her own worst enemy at times, displaying a lack of professionalism, and this is no easy spot to break through. I will try to beat Sunny River at short odds.

VH: For those rising early on Saturday for British Champions Day coverage at Ascot, #5 Trueshan (2-1) is a potentially vulnerable favorite in the the opening British Champions Day Long Distance Cup (G2). Although he's won this event the last two years, Trueshan appears to have taken a slight step back since heroically carrying a staggering 148-pound impost to victory in the June 25 Northumberland Plate. While he certainly didn't get his preferred cut in the ground when only third in the Goodwood Cup (G1) two back, he failed to maintain a straight line and made a lot of work of just winning a photo for second as the heavy odds-on favorite in the Doncaster Cup (G2) most recently. Although the class of this race, too, there are enough concerns to make taking a short price an unappealing proposition.

What else is worth noting?

JS: A pair of full siblings, Mr. Wireless and Ain't Broke, will seek to win separate races at Keeneland on Saturday. Both are by Dialed In and trained by Bret Calhoun. Multiple Grade 3 winner Mr. Wireless will make his turf debut in the fifth race, and the four-year gelding is bred for turf on the dam side. His recent form and worktab are strong, and Mr. Wireless will make his presence felt if he makes the transition in surfaces. In the eighth race, last-out maiden winner Ain't Broke returns from a seven-month freshening against a field lacking speed. She's a serious wire-to-wire threat with Reylu Gutierrez.

VH: One Eclipse Award division should be decided on Saturday when a field of nine hurdlers goes for the $250,000 Grand National (G1) at Far Hills. The heavy favorite figures to be Snap Decision, who could have clinched champion steeplechase honors with a victory in last month's Lonesome Glory (G1) at Aqueduct. In the event, Snap Decision had no answer when overwhelmed late by Noah and the Ark, a rival who had never previously won a stakes and was making his first start in nearly 16 months. The two re-oppose in the Grand National, a race worth tuning into watch on a relatively slow Saturday of domestic action.