The Jury: Bets and fades for Oct. 29

Closing day at Keeneland, the opening of Churchill Downs' fall meet, and the growing anticipation for next week's Breeders' Cup are among the highlights of this final weekend in October. The TwinSpires Jury of James Scully, Vance Hanson, and Ashley Anderson are back with thoughts on the upcoming action.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #6 Our Dream Rye'd (6-1) in the fifth race at Keeneland Saturday. The two-year-old colt rallied to a sharp maiden score the second time out at Saratoga in late July, but Our Dream Rye'd experienced a rough trip in his next two stakes outings. He passed more than half the field closing for fifth in the Oct. 9 Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland after a slow start and ridiculously wide journey, and I like the jockey switch to Joel Rosario and class relief here. Our Dream Rye'd should be rolling late.

Vance Hanson: #2 Parnac (9-2) totally failed to fire in her most recent start after showing progressive form in her second U.S. appearance at Saratoga last August. I'm willing to draw a line through that race and expect a better effort from the Christophe Clement-trained German import in Saturday's seventh race at Aqueduct, a first-level allowance for fillies and mares over one mile on the inner turf. A three-year-old who won a minor stakes at two, she remains with upside.

Ashley Anderson: #5 Super Chow (5-1) moves up in class in the six-furlong Bowman Mill S. at Keeneland on Saturday after romping to a 6 1/4-length victory in an allowance optional claimer at Pimlico on Sept. 10. The Lord Nelson colt recorded an 89 Brisnet Speed rating in the six-furlong dirt sprint, and his early speed figures suggest he can beat out fellow pacesetters Sir Lancelot, Jeremy’s Jet, Hurricane J, and Bourbon Bash to set the tempo on the way to his first stakes score. Trainer Jorge Delgado is a 17% winner in non-graded stakes and a 20% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 46-90 days. Super Chow’s bullet, 47-second, four-furlong workout on Oct. 22 at Keeneland is also an encouraging sign he's ready for this test.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #3 Quick Hammer (5-2) in the Bowman Mill S. at Keeneland. The two-year-old colt won going away first time out at Aqueduct in mid-September, and the morning line favorite will attract support with his strong connections (Brad Cox and Luis Saez), but the maiden race did not come back fast, and Quick Hammer must overcome a tough inside post in a speed-laden field.

VH: #11 Cape Trafalgar (3-1) has already lost twice (and by comfortable margins) at short odds at Keeneland this year, and while his price will be significantly better in Saturday's seventh race, I'll take another stand against the three-year-old maiden. The field is contentious enough to think even 3-1 or thereabouts will be no bargain on a colt that has promised a lot and failed to deliver so far.

AA: Todd Pletcher pupil #8 Wit (3-1) opened as the morning line favorite in the one-mile Bryan Station S. (G3), Saturday’s eighth race at Keeneland. The closer is coming off a 2 3/4-length win in the Better Talk Now S. at Saratoga and will re-oppose #1 Ready to Purrform (5-1), who beat the Practical Joke three-year-old by 1 1/4 lengths two back in the Hall of Fame (G2) at the same track. In three graded stakes this campaign, Wit has a second, a fourth in the Woody Stephens S. (G1), and won the Bay Shore S. (G3) at Aqueduct by a nose. He will step back up in class against graded stakes company and will face a group of formidable challengers. Ready to Purrform will cut back in distance after failing as the favorite in the 1 5/16-mile Dueling Grounds Derby (G3), and trainer Brad Cox is a 30% winner with beaten favorites. #2 Balnikhov (8-1) is also a dangerous closer, who flashed a 101 Late Pace rating when fourth by 1 1/4 lengths in the Dueling Grounds Derby and is 2-for-3 from today’s distance. I’ll back the latter two over the morning line favorite.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Compromised by a glacial pace, First Captain ran well for third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last out, and the four-year-old colt looks formidable in Saturday's Fayette (G2) at Keeneland. I'll play the favorite over progressing King Fury in a straight exacta. After concluding his three-year-old season on a disappointing note, King Fury didn't race on dirt again until mid-August, returning with a solid third behind a pair of in-form rivals in the Fort Larned S. The Kenny McPeek pupil exits an encouraging effort in the Lukas Classic (G2), edging Grade 1 winner Happy Saver for third, and King Fury appears to be training forwardly in preparation for his third start off the layoff. A Grade 3 winner at Keeneland, King Fury is eligible to outrun his 8-1 morning line price.

VH: Another horse to watch for in the Fayette is #3 Fulsome (3-1), who probably was at a disadvantage in last month's Ack Ack (G3) running over a one-turn mile. Far more accomplished around two turns, the four-time Grade 3 winner can threaten stretching back out in distance and over a track he's been successful on before.

AA: Santa Anita features seven stakes on Saturday’s 10-race card, including the Goldikova (G2) for fillies and mares, the Twilight Derby (G2) for three-year-olds, and the one-mile Autumn Miss (G3) for three-year-old fillies. In the Grade 3 event, #10 Cairo Memories (8-5) will return to Santa Anita for the first time since May 29 and will attempt to get back into the winner’s circle after a pair of failed efforts at the Grade 1 level in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1) and Del Mar Oaks (G1). Cairo Memories carries a 3-for-3 record at Santa Anita into this Grade 3 test and is 2-for-3 at today’s distance. The Cairo Prince filly won the Honeymoon (G3) and Providencia (G3), both at 1 1/8 miles, back in the spring but has not raced at one mile since her ninth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Del Mar in November 2021. A trio of sharp workouts in October show Cairo Memories is ready to rebound on the Santa Anita turf. Her biggest challenger may be #8 Rhea Moon (6-1), who has the closing kick to potentially catch Cairo Memories in the stretch. The Phil D’Amato filly flashed a 90 Speed figure last out in a one-mile allowance optional claimer at Del Mar and has shown improvement over her last three starts.