The Jury: Bets and fades for Oct. 8-9

With the final round of Breeders' Cup preps on tap across North America, the TwinSpires Jury — James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson — have scoured those and other races across the world to offer their best opinions on an exciting weekend of stakes action.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #2 Loggins in the Breeders' Futurity (G1). Bet down to 4-5 in his Sept. 17 debut, Loggins proved spectacular winning by an 8 1/2-length margin at 6 1/2 furlongs, and the Ghostzapper colt is built for longer distances. His dam never raced at a sprint, winning graded stakes at distances up to 1 1/8 miles, and Loggins should relish the stretch out to 1 1/16 miles for Brad Cox, who wins at a 30% clip when stretching horses to a route the first time. His Brisnet Speed rating (99) came back strong, and Loggins will put his early foot to good use from an inside post Saturday. Listed at 4-1 on the morning line, Loggins is a key play Saturday.

Kellie Reilly: I'd love to tab #8 Pao Alto in Sunday's Knickerbocker (G3) at Aqueduct — if the morning line were available at the time of writing. But perhaps the most temptingly overpriced horse of the weekend is #9 Cazadero (20-1) in Saturday's Nearctic (G2) at Woodbine. Once a prominent juvenile for Steve Asmussen, Cazadero didn't progress as hoped and ended up being sold for $50,000 at Keeneland in April. New trainer Brendan Walsh switched him to turf, and the Street Sense gelding responded with an eye-catching third after blowing the start at Saratoga. Granted, he was in for the $62,500 tag that day, but Cazadero hinted that he might have found his calling. His placement here is significant for Walsh, who fires 19% in the "second start with trainer" category, and Cazadero picks up Patrick Husbands. At the price, he's worth a flyer.

Vance Hanson: I'll go in a different direction in the Breeders' Futurity and tab #10 Lost Ark (6-1), who could have not been more visually impressive when taking his first two starts by open lengths, the latter a facile victory going a two-turn mile in the Sapling S. at Monmouth Park. While his numbers might not yet match those who will get more play here, he's yet another promising sort produced by Marion Ravenwood, who has already reared leading three-year-old filly Nest and the Santa Anita H. (G1)-winning Idol.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: #4 Golden Pal (4-5) in the Woodford (G2). The old Golden Pal would have taken care of business in this spot, but the four-year-old colt exits an uninspiring head win in the Aug. 5 Troy (G3) at Saratoga and doesn't appear to be at the top of his game presently. Golden Pal hasn't shown the same speed from the starting gate in his last two outings, a negative sign in my estimation, and he was actually under consideration for Friday's Phoenix (G2) on dirt following the last performance. The frontrunner won't get an easy lead with Artemus Citylimits entered, and I will try to beat Golden Pal at odds-on.

KR: #4 Rougir (5-2) brings back class and the addition of Lasix in Saturday's E.P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine, a very logical spot for the Chad Brown runner. Yet I can't let go of the idea that this could be a last-chance saloon for a filly who hasn't achieved what was envisioned, in light of her nearly $3.4 million purchase price at Arqana last December. Rougir has failed to hit the trifecta in her past three. Even allowing for mitigating circumstances, her efforts are a reminder that she was often a "nearly" horse in France, before her improbable upset of last fall's Prix de l'Opera (G1) on heavy going. This is no easy spot either, with several worthy contenders, including Flirting Bridge, a fascinating 10-1 shot; German shipper Mylady, placed in a pair of classics, including the Preis der Diana (German Oaks) (G1) to Toskana Belle, who ran a brave second to McKulick in the Jockey Club Oaks (G3); and Canadian star Moira, who has a right to transfer her game to turf.

VH: Although mares won the last four editions of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) held at Aqueduct way back in 1980-83 (including champions April Run and All Along), I find #2 War Like Goddess (7-5) to be poor value on the morning line. Although she's used to overcoming the kind of dawdling pace she'll likely encounter here, her bid will need to be timed just right. Unfortunately for her backers, she's sometimes been asked too soon or too late, and thus has burned money at miserly prices a couple times in the past. The biggest drawback is that she's never faced males before. The ones she faces here are not world-class by any stretch, but they're a more talented crew than what she's typically faced in the filly-and-mare ranks over the past two seasons.

What else is worth noting?

JS: An abundance of speed is entered in the $1 million Coolmore Turf Mile (G1), and a pair of late runners immediately catch my eye, #6 Ivar (6-1) and #9 Casa Creed (5-1). Both will be used in multi-race wagers, and Ivar receives top billing. Winner of the 2020 edition of this event, the six-year-old has never run a bad one from three starts against Grade 1 rivals on Keeneland's turf, and the Brazilian-bred horse appears to be rounding toward a top performance for Paulo Lobo. Winner of a Horseshoe Indianapolis stakes following a nine-month layoff in July, Ivar exits a runner-up to probable Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) favorite Modern Games in the Woodbine Mile (G1), registering century-topping Speed ratings in both 2022 starts. Ivar will keep progressing Saturday.

KR: The new sponsors of Saturday's Coolmore Turf Mile could recoup a bit of that investment with #3 Order of Australia (8-1) — not exactly a win machine, but running decently at the top level for Aidan O'Brien. New rider Christophe Soumillon might be able to work out a similar stalk-and-pounce trip, off a hot pace, as Pierre-Charles Boudot did in his 2020 Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) shocker. At the least, he ought to do a lot better than his flop in this race last year. A repeat of his typical European performance would put him right in the frame. An entirely different pace scenario is on tap in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Aqueduct, where the tempo looks to be slow with only one plausible pacesetter (Bye Bye Melvin). This race shape shouldn't bother favorite #2 War Like Goddess (7-5), who is proven to accelerate sharply in a sit-sprint going 1 1/2 miles. (Note her upset last time was pilot error over 1 3/8 miles). But it could also help the better-priced #3 Adhamo (6-1), whose marquee form is over shorter. If a strongly-run 1 1/2 miles would suit the Christophe Clement pair of Gufo and Soldier Rising best, a slowly-run version arguably levels the playing field for Adhamo, making it less of a stamina test.

VH: One of England's top two-year-old races, the Dewhurst S. (G1) at Newmarket, goes off Saturday morning at 10 a.m. ET, and #3 Isaac Shelby (12-1) looks capable of maintaining his undefeated record in the seven-furlong test. A 3 1/2-length winner on debut at Newbury in late May, the Night of Thunder colt came back to win the Superlative (G2) going seven over Newmarket's July Course in a thrilling finish, and apparently has been saved since to target this championship event. Improvement is certainly needed as he faces rivals with recent races under their belts, but Isaac Shelby has plenty of upside, and I'd gladly accept 10s or higher in this spot.