The Jury: Bets and fades for Sept. 10

The TwinSpires Jury of James Scully, Kellie Reilly, and Vance Hanson reconvene this week to opine on the big weekend at Kentucky Downs, with a little Pimlico sprinkled in for good measure.

What is your best bet?

James Scully: #9 Front Run the Fed (15-1) exits a fifth in the Fourstardave H. (G1) at Saratoga in which he advanced into a hot second quarter-mile (:23 and change) — that's not his preferred run style. The stalker, who opened 2022 with a nice turf sprint stakes win at Colonial Downs, cuts back to a favorable six-furlong distance (4-1-2-0) in Saturday's Turf Sprint (G2) and has run well over the Kentucky Downs turf, recording a neck second in the 2020 Turf Sprint. The six-year-old will appreciate any moisture in the course (wet weather possible), and Front Run the Fed appears poised for a top showing in the third start off the layoff.

Kellie Reilly: Saturday's All Along S. at Pimlico might be the breakout performance for #3 Capital Structure (7-2). The Chad Brown trainee scratched from last weekend's Flower Bowl (G2) and pops up here instead. Although the British import is cutting back in trip to 1 1/8 miles, she won over shorter earlier in her stop-start career, and she's too lightly raced to be typecast. The main point is that Capital Structure has a potent kick, racking up a 105 Brisnet Late Pace rating in her recent last-to-first allowance score at Saratoga. One of Klaravich's Tattersalls yearling acquisitions, the Lope de Vega mare is a full sister to Group 3-placed King Vega, who just set a 1 1/8-mile course record in the Buckland S. at Colonial. She's also from the family of multiple Grade 2-winning stablemate Public Sector, who runs later on the card in the Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup (G3) (where #2 Pao Alto [7-2] is an intriguing new recruit for Graham Motion).

Vance Hanson: #5 Arzak (9-2) is worth a look in the Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs. Considerably improved this year and a four-year-old with further upside, the colt finished a commendable second in the Connaught Cup (G2) two back after hitting the front early. Last time at Saratoga, he seemingly found the cutback to 5 1/2 furlongs a little sharp. With a better-timed, off-the-pace rally, he can make his presence felt at a square price.

Who is the horse to fade?

JS: Bob Baffert appears to have Sunday's Del Mar Futurity (G1) circled with a trio of runners, but #6 Home Cooking looks vulnerable as the 9-5 morning line favorite in Saturday's Del Mar Debutante (G1). I prefer #3 And Tell Me Nolies (3-1), who registered a field-best 92 Brisnet Speed rating when breaking her maiden on the front end last out, and others worthy of consideration include Fast and Shiny, Ice Dancing, and Vegas Magic.

KR: #1 Dalika (2-1) turned in the race of her life in the Beverly D. (G1), but it's questionable whether she can repeat it in Saturday's Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3). The German-bred handled a Churchill Downs turf that didn't suit everyone, to put it mildly. Moreover, #8 Princess Grace, who had defeated Dalika in this very race last September, appeared on the verge of beating her again in the Beverly D., only to lose momentum late. Princess Grace is now back at a mile in her title defense. Add in #3 Hendy Woods (who recently dead-heated with #5 Flippant), #4 Lady Speightspeare, and #9 Stolen Holiday, and Dalika begins to shape up as an underlay.

VH: Dalika got optimum course conditions when taking last month's Beverly D. at Churchill Downs. Even though she set a fairly strong pace, speed was a good thing to have over that course on that day as few legitimate challengers were able to menace from off the pace in either that race or the Arlington Million (G1). At less favorable odds for Saturday's Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf, Dalika is a stand-against for me.

What else is worth noting?

JS: Race 6 at Kentucky Downs Saturday, a 1 5/16-mile allowance, is included in Pick 4 and 5 sequences, and #10 Mud Pie returns to his favorite location (2-for-2), recording both career wins and a victory at the distance over the European-style course in Franklin, Kentucky. He offered a solid run while ridiculously wide over the inner turf course at Saratoga last time, finishing three lengths back in fifth against several of today's rivals, and the Rusty Arnold-trained gelding is an obvious candidate to progress off that showing with Tyler Gaffalione. We probably won't get his 6-1 morning line odds, but Mud Pie's price won't be too short in the 12-horse field.

KR: So deep are the fields at Kentucky Downs that there's no shortage of plausible contenders listed at attractive odds. In lightning-round fashion, here are several possible value options worth a look: #10 Cavalry Charge (12-1), a course-and-distance winner, can factor in Saturday's Mint Million (G3) based on his old Fair Grounds form; the Turf Sprint might present a better set-up for #7 Gregorian Chant (10-1), who wasn't that far off Arrest Me Red in a less favorable spot at Churchill; the Kentucky Turf Cup (G2) has a blueblood up-and-comer from the Brown barn in #12 Highest Honors (12-1); and the Ladies Sprint (G3) includes an overpriced course-and-distance winner rounding back into form in #6 Tobys Heart (15-1). In Sunday's Untapable S., Jorge Abreu sends out #8 Alluring Angel (5-1), a good-looking Saratoga debut winner, and in the Music City S., #8 Bubble Rock (5-1) resurfaces for Brad Cox in conditions that could bring out the best in her. The distance of Sunday's Ladies Marathon (G3) arguably suits #4 Flippant (6-1) better than her Saturday cross-entry option, the Ladies Turf.

VH: #5 Sifting Sands (4-1) appears a progressive sort that might outrun expectations in Saturday's Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup at Pimlico. Although uncompetitive in a pair of graded attempts at three last season, the Chad Brown trainee has shown noted improvement this summer in a light campaign. He out-finished stablemate #1 Public Sector in the Lure S. at Saratoga last time with nearly identical trips (position-wise), and figures to be the better price in this meeting.