The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for April 6 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Nick Tammaro talk their bets and fades for Keeneland opening weekend and more. Ashley and James give their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Nick's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#2 Wico (4-1) in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland Saturday; this is a perfect spot for the up-and-coming dirt horse to earn his first stakes win. Pegged as a turf/synthetic horse by Wesley Ward, Wico has won only one of nine starts on those surfaces, but he displayed terrific stakes potential when switching to dirt at Keeneland last October, generating a career-best 100 Brisnet Speed rating for a 4 3/4-length allowance romp. He carried that form forward with a fine second versus a stakes-quality allowance field at Churchill Downs, tracking wickedly fast fractions while extremely wide and surging to a clear in upper stretch before grudgingly giving way late. It’s safe to assume Wico will have more to offer on dirt moving forward, and he’s shown an affinity for Keeneland and the seven-furlong distance.

Ashley Anderson: 

#6 Just a Touch (7-2) in the Blue Grass S. (G1), R10 at Keeneland on Saturday. The Justify colt will go up against Risen Star (G2) winner Sierra Leone and Fountain of Youth (G2) hero Dornoch, but the lightly raced Brad Cox runner appears primed for a big run here. Just a Touch won on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds while posting a 97 Brisnet Speed figure on a sloppy track, then stretched out to a one-turn mile in the Gotham (G3) and finished second as the favorite in the slop. He should get a fast track here, and I think he's got the late speed to excel on the stretch-out to 1 1/8 miles. (He posted a 95 Late Pace rating last out when closing for second.) Just a Touch has put in two bullet workouts recently, and he'll retain the services of Florent Geroux, who's winning at a 33% rate paired with Cox over the last two months.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#10 Pounce (3-1) in the Appalachian (G2) at Keeneland Saturday. After an unplaced finish in a December allowance at Turfway, Pounce shipped to South Florida and recorded a wire-to-wire allowance win two months later. The bay filly got up to win the Herecomesthebride (G3) last out, defeating 6-5 favorite Ozara and others, but Pounce will face deeper competition in the Appalachian and I won’t take a short price on her from an outside post. Her new competition includes #2 Living Magic (30-1), who recorded a convincing win over Ozara in the Chelsey Flower S. at Aqueduct two back and exits a solid tightener in a Turfway stakes. She was one of several Appalachian contestants I favor over Pounce in the Appalachian.

AA:

#3 Running Bee (8-5) in the 11th, and final, race at Keeneland on Saturday. The morning-line price is too low for me considering Running Bee's recent form and speed figures. The English Channel son has posted three straight 89 Brisnet Speed figures, six points lower than the par winning figure for today's race conditions at Keeneland. The Chad Brown pupil did win in gate-to-wire fashion at Keeneland four back when racing 1 1/8 miles, and he does best when on the lead. Last out, he stalked the pace in the 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay S. (G3) and just missed, finishing a half-length second. He's likely to get caught in an early speed duel here, and I'll look elsewhere for a better price. #4 Dominican Pioneer (4-1) flashed triple-digit E1 and E2 ratings when setting the early pace in the 1 1/8-mile River City S. (G3) last out before yielding in the stretch and finishing fifth. I like him on the cutback in distance, as well as late runner #5 Master Piece (7-2) and horse-for-the-course #1 Camp Hope (12-1).

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

A sharp winner of the Gotham (G3), Deterministic (7-5) is the one to beat in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, but I’m not keen on taking a short price considering he’s never been two turns and his lone start on a fast track came at six furlongs last August. #1 Resilience (6-1) is my top pick. Overlooked at 128-1 in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager last month, Resilience exits a respectable fourth in his stakes debut, the Feb 17. Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. That’s been the deepest prep of the year and jockey John Velazquez thought his mount’s lack of seasoning cost Resilience (who was exiting a maiden romp) a better showing. Bill Mott adds blinkers, Resilience shows consecutive five-furlong bullet works in preparation, and I’ll look for an improved performance from the serious win contender.

In the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, #10 Sierra Leone (2-1) appears poised to receive a favorable setup with a pair of stablemates likely guaranteeing a solid pace. I will play the favorite over #11 Encino (12-1) in vertical exotics. That latter exits a sharp win in the John Battaglia Memorial S. at Turfway, a performance that was more impressive visually than it may appear in past performances, and the Brad Cox-trained Nyquist colt was making only his third start that afternoon, breaking his maiden in late January. Encino isn’t the only lightly-raced colt from Cox’s Turfway division I look forward to seeing at Keeneland this weekend. Tennessee (15-1) will switch to turf and make his first stakes attempt in Friday’s Transylvania (G3), and I give both runners a legitimate chance to outperform their double-digit morning line odds.

AA:

In addition to the three 100-point Kentucky Derby prep races this weekend, we have three Oaks preps worth the same points total to the winner of each. On Friday, Keeneland will kick off its Spring Meet with the Ashland (G1), arguably the most competitive three-year-old Oaks prep, with the likes of Just F Y I, Jody's Pride, Candied, and Impel all in the field. Just F Y I, Jody's Pride, and Candied finished in the top three, in that order, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), and each has a serious shot on Friday, but I'll go with Todd Pletcher filly #1 Candied (6-1), who's looked excellent in recent works at Palm Beach Downs and will have regular rider Luis Saez aboard (Saez was the leading rider at Keeneland last spring). The pace should set up well for the closer, and the rail post was winning at a high rate last meet in 8 1/2-furlong dirt races.

Two other Oaks prep races take place at Aqueduct (the Grade 3 Gazelle) and at Santa Anita (the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks). Life Talk and Gin Gin headline the former, and Richard Mandella trainee Kopion will look to exact revenge on Las Virgenes (G3) winner Kinza in the latter. The future Kentucky Oaks winner could very likely come out of one of these three preps this weekend.