The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Aug. 10-11 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Nick Tammaro review their best bets and fades for Colonial Downs for the Arlington Million (G1) card, Ellis Park, and Del Mar. 

Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Nick's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#1 Brilliant Berti (5-2) in the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs on Sunday. 

The Cherie DeVaux-trained colt comfortably broke his maiden the second time in early May and followed with a nice 1 3/4-length score over entry-level allowance rivals a month later. Brilliant Berti kept advancing in his stakes debut, the American Derby at Churchill Downs on June 29, offering a powerful turn of foot to strike the front by midstretch. He easily defeated First World War, who was exiting a win over subsequent Belmont Derby (G1) victor Trikari in the Penn Mile (G3). 

Those rivals are entered in the Secretariat, but I prefer Brilliant Berti’s improving form.

Ashley Anderson:

#7 Witty (4-1) in the 5 1/2-furlong Van Clief S., the eighth race at Colonial on Sunday. 

The five-year-old gelding has been racing on turf in his last three and won three back in a non-graded stakes at Laurel at Sunday's distance. He cut back to five furlongs in the Turf Sprint S. at Pimlico and finished second to a next-out stakes winner over soft going before stretching out to six furlongs in the Highlander (G2) and placing second again, this time to multiple graded-stakes victor Filo Di Arianna. 

Witty will drop in class for the Van Clief and races at a distance from which he's 6-3-3-0. He's also regaining rider Jevian Toledo, a 33% winner this meet who has won all four of his previous mounts with Witty. Trainer Elizabeth Merryman is a 36% winner in non-graded stakes, albeit from only 14 races, and Witty has four wins and two seconds from seven starts since rejoining her barn.

I'll back the deep closer here over the morning-line favorite #8 Mischief Magic (5-2), another late runner who is looking for his first U.S. victory since shipping back to North America.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#6 Moira (9-5) in the Beverly D. (G2) at Colonial Downs Sunday. 

She’s a hard-trying mare, but Moira has displayed a willingness to settle for minor awards, finishing second or third in seven of her last nine starts. And I think she favors distances up to 1 1/8 miles, never finishing first or second from three previous starts at or about Sunday’s 1 3/16-mile trip.

AA:

#1 Brilliant Berti (5-2) in the Grade 2 Secretariat, the ninth race at Colonial on Sunday. 

The Noble Mission three-year-old is 3-for-4 lifetime and has a three-win streak since finishing fifth on debut in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Fair Grounds in February. The Cherie DeVaux trainee clocked a 94 Brisnet Speed rating last out when winning his stakes debut at Churchill and will jump to graded stakes competition for the first time. 

He won his lone start at a mile two back in an allowance optional claimer at Churchill in June, but I think the late runner is vulnerable against tougher competition and when racing over what is likely to be softer turf for the first time in his career.

#5 Fulmineo (10-1) has won his last two at a mile over soft going, including the Boston S. at Colonial on July 13. The Arnaud Delacour pupil will stick with rider Victor Carrasco, a 30% winner this meet, and will move back up in class Sunday. He's 2-for-2 at Colonial and 4-2-1-0 over a mile. 

#7 First World War (7-2), who placed second to Brilliant Berti in the 1 1/16-mile American Derby, may improve while trying blinkers for the first time. He'll retain the services of Frankie Dettori, who won the Penn Mile (G3) with First World War two back and strikes at a 20% clip on turf. 

Grade 2 American Turf hero #9 Trikari (3-1) must also be respected. He's earned four victories from his last six starts, with his two losses coming by a neck.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Brian Hernandez Jr. has been named the recipient of the Mike Venezia Memorial Award, which recognizes extraordinary sportsmanship and citizenship that was personified by Venezia, who died from injuries sustained in a spill in 1988. 

Hernandez is enjoying a career-best year, winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) this spring. The 38-year-old journeyman will be honored at Saratoga on Aug. 23, one day prior to piloting Thorpedo Anna in the Travers (G1).

I’ll also mention the sixth race at Saratoga on Sunday, a seven-furlong maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies. 

Chad Brown has a pair of firsters and Bill Mott appears well represented, but I’ll focus upon #6 Quickick (6-1), who will make her career debut for Tom Amoss. 

This freshman sire of McKinzie started slowly this spring, but she was represented by a pair of impressive winners in recent weeks, Chancer McPatrick at Saratoga and McKinzie Street at Del Mar. I’m excited to see Quickick. She’s out of the Grade 3-winning sprinter Graeme Six, who has nine winners from 10 starters, including four juvenile winners and three stakes winners. 

Quickick owns a win-early pedigree and has logged some eye-catching workouts in preparation. Amoss has sent out a two-year-old winner this meet, and I’m intrigued by Quickick.

AA:

Godolphin-bred Tarifa, who finished with the most points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks (G1) but was a distant ninth at Churchill Downs on May 3, will make her first start since that Grade 1 effort in Sunday's seven-furlong Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park. 

The Brad Cox trainee won both the Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) at 1 1/16 miles during a three-win streak that was snapped in the Kentucky Oaks. She will now cut back to a sprint at the distance from which she broke her maiden on debut.

Tarifa is installed as the 8-5 favorite and will regain Florent Geroux, who had the mount in the filly's first three career starts. She's faced tougher competition than her Audubon Oaks rivals, but the cutback in distance could make the late runner vulnerable after racing at 8 1/2 to nine furlongs in her last three. 

Horses returning for the first time after a start in the Kentucky Derby (G1) or Oaks tend to get bet heavily, and while she has already proved herself at seven furlongs, she will run up against some solid sprinters. That includes stakes-placed #2 Fibber (7-2), who just won her first start in the barn of Chris Hartman with a career-best Brisnet Speed rating of 94. 

Steve Asmussen trainee #8 Adogate (12-1) is unbeaten from two starts and may improve off a layoff. #6 Mink's Palace (6-1) and #4 Tambo (4-1) – who came home second to a next-out winner in a non-graded stakes last out – can contend as well.