The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Dec. 16 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali discuss races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, Oaklawn Park, Turfway Park, and more. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

#5 Back to Ohio (7-2) in the third race at Oaklawn on Saturday, a six-furlong allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares. The Midshipman three-year-old comes off a one-length victory in a stakes at Mahoning Valley and has won two straight and eight of her nine career starts. Her lone loss was a second when stretching out in distance and trying turf, and Back to Ohio is 4-for-4 from today's distance. Trainer Larry Rivelli is also a 33% winner with horses that won their last race and a 31% winner at the allowance level, plus he strikes at a 32% rate with shippers. With the 2-1 morning line favorite, #7 Leeloo, having gone 0-for-6 this campaign, I'll back the 7-2 choice among a field of nine.

James Scully:

#6 Xcellent Men (6-1) in the seventh race at Oaklawn Park Saturday. The three-year-old gelding has faced better competition in last two, finishing to well-regarded Tirico at Laurel Park before a third to Savings Rate, a promising debut winner for Chad Brown, at Aqueduct. Xcellent Men received a field-best 85 Brisnet Speed rating for the latter, and his main rivals do not appear to be exiting strong races. Ramon Vazquez picks up the mount on the early/presser for David Jacobson.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA: 

#4 Speed Bias (3-1) in the Tinsel S., the ninth race at Oaklawn on Saturday. The four-year-old Uncle Mo colt will drop in class off a neck third in the Grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland when racing at today's distance of 1 1/8 miles, and the colt has struggled from four tries at the distance, failing to record a victory. He also has just one win from six starts at Oaklawn, and trainer Ron Moquett is just an 8% winner in non-graded stakes. I expect Speed Bias and fellow early pacesetter #2 Strong Quality (5-2) to get into a speed duel from the start, which could leave the door open for a late runner to close. 

#6 Ardanwood (12-1) has posted lighter speed figures when racing a mile and 70 yards in his last two, but he's won by a combined 9 3/4 lengths in those starts, and he recorded a 101 Late Pace figure last out. I think the McLean Robertson trainee can pull off the upset while picking up hot jockey Chris Landeros (22% winner this meet). #7 Denington (5-1) also has the late kick to fly down the stretch and close late if Speed Bias and Strong Quality tire from a back-and-forth battle early on.

JS:

#1 Senor Jobim (5-2) in the first race at Turfway Park. I didn’t like the $32,000 claimer that he narrowly won at Saratoga in mid-August, as six runners were spread out across the track in deep stretch, and the nine-year-old has gone off form five starts since, including a poor showing at Turfway nine days ago. Steve Asmussen drops him down to the lowest level yet, but Senor Jobim has not been getting out of the starting gate and I will fade the late runner at short odds here.

What Else Is Worth Noting

AA:

Gulfstream Park will host the Allen Jerkens on Saturday, a two-mile turf test for three-year-olds and up. With a nearly 100% chance of rain on Saturday, this race is likely moving to the Tapeta track and will be run at 1 5/8 miles. If that's the case, #1 Value Engineering (2-1) has an excellent shot to defend his title, as he won this race last year when it was moved to the synthetic track. But he'll face some competition from #5 Six Minus (6-1), a Todd Pletcher gelding who was beaten just three-quarters of a length last out on all-weather when racing at 1 1/16 miles. The longer distance could benefit the five-year-old, as well as the switch back to rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who's winning at a 28% clip at Gulfstream.

If this race does somehow stick to the turf, #8 McLovin (5-2) is the only runner who has tried the two-mile distance, from which he won last out in a non-graded stakes at Far Hills. He'll make his first start since returning to the barn of Arnaud Delacour, a 20% winner this meet, and he put in a sharp workout Dec. 9. #4 F Five (6-1) is also intriguing on the turf for Brian Lynch, a 23% winner in non-graded stakes. The Not This Time four-year-old won two back at 1 1/8 miles on turf with a 99 Late Pace rating, and he's picking up hot jockey Luis Saez.

JS:

Aqueduct runs a pair of New York Stallion Stakes Series divisions for two-year-olds, the Great White Way and Fifth Avenue for fillies, and I’m intrigued to see if #9 B D Saints can carry his form forward in the Great White Way. A turf maiden winner, B D Saints switched to the main track for the Sleepy Hollow in late October and was checked at the break, trailing far back during the opening stages. The Linda Rice-trained colt launched an eye-catching rally on the far turn, steamrolling past nearly the entire field while wide, and missed by about a length in second to odds-on El Grande O. B D Saints led all the way in his maiden win, so we know he can break better and his odds will be deservedly short on Saturday. But the Sleepy Hollow came in the mud and sometimes those massive sweeping late runs for minor awards can be deceiving. It will be interesting to see if B D Saints can back up his last performance.