The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Dec. 23 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali talk stakes races at Fair Grounds, Gulfstream Park, Turfway Park, and more. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

#7 Snead (6-1) in the Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, the final race on Saturday. All eyes are on #6 Nash (7-5) out of Brad Cox's barn after he romped to a 10-length victory in his second career start in a maiden special weight at Churchill, but I'll take a shot with a longer-priced runner here. Since switching from turf to dirt, Snead is 2-for-2 for trainer Brendan Walsh, and last out he dominated by more than seven lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Fair Grounds. Snead beat a stakes winner and stakes-placed runner in the event and earned a 118 Class Rating, tied with Nash's last-out rating. Walsh is also a 20% winner with horses that won their last race, and Jareth Loveberry will retain the mount and is winning at an 18% clip at Fair Grounds. Snead is the lone late closer in the field, and Nash and Steve Asmussen's Track Phantom could get into an early speed duel that may open it up for Snead to finish strong down the stretch and pull off the upset. At 6-1, I'll back the Nyquist runner who's bred for classic distances.

James Scully:

#8 Brigadier General (6-1) in the Tenacious S. at Fair Grounds Saturday (11th race). The four-year-old gelding enters on an upswing for Dallas Stewart, winning his last two starts over allowance rivals, generating the top last-out Brisnet Speed rating (99) at Keeneland, and Brigadier General runs well fresh, coming back from a short rest to capture his 2023 seasonal opener over allowance rivals at Fair Grounds last February. Dallas Stewart trainee shows a bullet half-mile work in preparation, and I like Brigadier General on the front end with Joel Rosario.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA: 

#3 Agoo (7-5) in the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds in Race 4. The price is too short on the Munnings colt, who's 1-for-3 for his career and scored his lone win at 6 1/2 furlongs. He seemed to need the added distance to get up for the win, and he's cutting back to six furlongs here. Whit Beckman is an up-and-coming trainer and just celebrated a win with 8-1 choice Honor Marie in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), but I'll fade his two-year-old in this spot. The better play of the two short-priced runners is #4 Legalize (8-5) for Cherie DeVaux, who's posted a 12-3-2-2 record to start the meet. Legalize finished fifth on debut to Agoo in October at Keeneland but took a huge step forward in his second career start when winning gate-to-wire in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill. The Constitution colt clocked a 98 Brisnet Speed figure, the highest last race speed rating among the field, and will pick up hot jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., a 26% winner this meet. Steve Asmussen's #6 American Rascal (7-2) could also outfinish Agoo here. The Curlin colt is coming off a dominant win in a stakes at Zia Park and will add Lasix for the first time while keeping Joel Rosario in the saddle.

JS:

#3 Private Creed (3-1) in the Richard R. Scherer Memorial S. at Fair Grounds Saturday (eighth race). He was on the right part of the course and did not face a strong field when snapping a six-race losing skein in the Franklin-Simpson (G2) at Kentucky Downs two back, with the runner-up appearing exposed at the stakes level in his next outing and the third-placer winless on turf. And Private Creed overwhelmed a soft field at Churchill Downs last time (114 Race Rating for field), putting his rivals away by the top of the stretch. I’m not projecting the same easy trip Saturday, with a fair amount of speed entered and a stakes-winning stalker at Fair Grounds in #10 Evan Sing (9-2), and will fade Private Creed at short odds.

What Else Is Worth Noting

AA:

Brad Cox will be well-represented in both the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks prep races running at Fair Grounds this weekend. In the Untapable S., he will send out the morning line favorite #6 West Omaha (5-2), who just won by four lengths in her second career start. West Omaha's sire, West Coast, is also the sire of West Sunset, trained by Cox, who won the Rags to Riches S., earning 10 points on the Kentucky Oaks leaderboard. West Omaha's stablemate, #1 Alpine Princess (3-1) is also running in the Untapable and may be the stronger contender, having won twice from four starts, including a two-length win in a 1 1/16-mile allowance at Churchill last out.

In the Gun Runner, Cox has potential Derby prospect Nash, a Godolphin homebred who recorded a 97 BRIS figure last out in his win, plus #2 Catching Freedom, a $575,000 yearling purchase who won on debut at a mile and then finished fourth as the favorite in an allowance optional claimer in his second start. Florent Geroux has hopped off Catching Freedom and will stick with Nash, but the Constitution colt will pick up Corey Lanerie, and has a chance to close late with plenty of speed signed on here.

JS:

Shug McGaughey already has Integration gearing up for a four-year-old campaign in turf stakes, and I’m excited to see #9 Ohana Honor (3-1) make his second turf stakes attempt for the Hall of Fame conditioner in Saturday’s Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream Park (11th race). A half-brother to three dirt stakes winners, the $430,000 yearling purchase needed seven starts to break his maiden, graduating on the main track at Colonial Downs in early August, and Ohana Honor followed with an eye-catching turf allowance score from off the pace. A moderate pace conspired against him in his stakes debut, the Gio Ponti at Aqueduct in early October, but Ohana Honor finished well to be second to the front-running Northern Invader.

Ohana Honor is from the fifth crop of 2015 champion older male Honor Code, who was represented by Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Honor A. P. and Grade 1 victor Max Player from his first crop but has had few notables since. Honor Code does have a promising Kentucky Derby prospect for next spring, Honor Marie, who will be pointed to February’s Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds off a sharp win in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, and Ohana Honor will look to establish himself as a turf horse to watch for 2024 in the Tropical Park Derby.