The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Dec. 30 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson and James Scully meet for a condensed edition of the Jury to discuss stakes races at Fair Grounds, Turfway, and Gulfstream Park. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in both the written and on-camera portions. Be sure to check out a number of promos available at TwinSpires that apply to each of the races mentioned in the Jury!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

I'll back early pacesetter #7 Callie's Grit (12-1) in the ninth race, the Pago Hop S., at Fair Grounds on Saturday. The three-year-old Maclean's Music filly will drop in class off a fourth-place finish in the Mrs. Revere (G3), a 1 1/16-mile event taken off Churchill's turf in November. Two back, Callie's Grit went gate to wire in a 1 3/16-mile allowance on Keeneland's turf and earned a 92 Brisnet Speed figure, tied for the best turf speed figure among the field.

Callie's Grit is a need-the-lead type, but she's one of just two early pacesetters in the field, and if she can get out front early, I think she can wire the field. Trainer Joe Sharp is a 21% winner with horses going from dirt to turf and a 32% winner this meet, while jockey Jaime Torres is 5-for-12 paired with Sharp over the last two months. Callie's Grit also posted a sharp five-furlong workout at Fair Grounds Dec. 16, so plenty to like about this longshot's chances.

James Scully:

#7 Northern Invader (7-2) in the Woodchopper S. at Fair Grounds Saturday (seventh race). An impressive maiden winner when making his turf debut in July, Northern Invader experienced a troubled trip jumping to stakes competition in the Secretariat (G2) but rebounded nicely with a convincing tally in the Gio Ponti next out. The early/presser didn’t get out of the gate smoothly in a dirt stakes last time, but the Cherie DeVaux-trained colt rallied well from last for second. Northern Invader will appreciate getting back to the turf in the Woodchopper for three-year-olds. 

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA:

#9 Fortin Hill (7-2) in the Holiday Cheer S., Race 7 at Turfway on Saturday. The Mucho Macho Man seven-year-old is making his fifth start of the season and is 2-for-4 in 2023, with victories coming at 6 1/2 and seven furlongs. Last out, Fortin Hill won a seven-furlong allowance optional claimer at Keeneland but needed the extra furlong to get up to win by a neck. Two back, he raced at today's distance of six furlongs and rallied late to finish third. The Paulo Lobo trainee will try all-weather for the first time, and he's regaining rider Gerardo Corrales, who is just 6-for-75 this meet. I'll fade the lukewarm morning line favorite and like the chances of unbeaten #6 True Temper (4-1) as well as #1 Heaven Street (6-1), who will make his first start on all-weather for Mike Maker and will pick up hot jockey Axel Concepcion (24-6-5-4 the last week).

JS:

#6 O’Connor in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) at Gulfstream Saturday (10th race). A confirmed closer, O’Connor favors longer distances, taking advantage of an ideal set up to narrowly earn his first U.S. stakes win in the 1 1/8-mile Fayette (G2) last out, but the six-year-old must now cut back to 8 1/2 furlongs in a field lacking true speed. I like #7 Octane on the front end. O’Connor wound up fourth as the favorite in last year’s Harlan’s Holiday, and I will fade him here.