The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Feb. 1 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali discuss their best bets and fades for a huge weekend of Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1) prep races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and more.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#3 Tappan Street (3-1) in Saturday’s Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park. This Into Mischief colt will jump straight to a Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifier after winning his first start at Gulfstream over seven furlongs in late December, chasing a hot pace in-between rivals on the backstretch, and Tappan Street was put to a full drive on the far turn to hold his position. His win chances did not look good at that point, but Tappan Street put his body down while turning into the stretch and went after the clear pacesetter, reeling him in during the final sixteenth of a mile and driving clear by nearly two lengths. I love this kind of hard-fought, courageous win at first asking: it’s the kind of performance talented horses will move forward significantly upon in the next outing (early Kentucky Derby favorite Barnes is a prime example of the improvement from start to start). Tappan Street registered an encouraging 89 Brisnet Speed rating and the Brad Cox-trained is bred and built to appreciate the stretch out to two turns.

Ashley Anderson:

#5 T'Challa (6-1) at Santa Anita on Saturday in Race 10, a one-mile allowance optional claimer on the turf. The Kingman four-year-old is dropping in class off a 6 1/4-length ninth in the 1 1/8-mile Hawthorne Derby in which he pressed the early pace and faded in the stretch. He'll cut back in distance today and is 1-for-3 racing a mile on the turf while competing overseas. He'll also race on Lasix for the first time in his second start with trainer Neil Drysdale, a 19% winner first time with Lasix and an 18% winner with shippers. High-percentage turf rider Antonio Fresu will pick up the mount and is winning at a 16% clip this meet. T'Challa should be able to get the early lead here with a lack of early speed signed on and will re-oppose morning-line favorite #7 Ciro di Marzio (5-2), who finished fifth to T'Challa two back in a 1 1/4-mile handicap at Newbury last August.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#2 San Siro (5-2) in the sixth race at Fair Grounds Saturday. The gelding barely broke his maiden in an off-the-turf race at Fair Grounds last year, and his entry-level allowance win three back came over a suspect group at 1 1/4 miles. He raced evenly in his next two starts versus tougher competition at Churchill Downs, finishing a well-beaten third as the favorite last out, and I think this grinder probably needs longer distances (1 1/16-mile race here) and softer competition to thrive. I’m also against #4 Nash (3-1), who will probably compete for favoritism and turned in his best career effort at a one-turn distance last year, finishing second in the Pat Day Mile (G2). I like #3 Snead (3-1), who loves Fair Grounds and the distance; he looks poised to keep advancing for Brendan Walsh off a good second in December.

AA: 

#9 Seal Team (5-2) in the one-mile Thunder Road (G3) on Santa Anita's turf on Saturday. The War Front five-year-old is on a three-loss streak, including fifth- and third-place finishes at Santa Anita to close out the year. The Richard Mandella pupil was beaten by turf star Johannes last out in the 1 1/8-mile San Gabriel (G2) and gained a lead at the top of the stretch before he was overtaken by the top two finishers. The cutback in distance may benefit him, but Seal Team is 0-for-2 racing a mile and may not get the hottest pace to run into. I prefer the chances of #2 Air Force Red (3-1) stretching back out to a route with Juan Hernandez aboard, and think #1 Cabo Spirit (20-1) could surprise at a big price cutting back in distance at a track where he's 10-3-2-2.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

We talked about the Holy Bull, which is part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby Challenge series, and the Withers at Aqueduct and Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita also will award 42 total points (20-10-6-4-2 scale) toward a berth in the May 3 Kentucky Derby.

Runner-up in the Smarty Jones on Jan. 4, #5 Mo Quality (3-1) is my choice in the Withers. The speedy Christopher Davis trainee could not reel in Coal Battle, who led all the way in the Smarty Jones and edged Southwest (G3) victor Speed King when taking December’s Springboard Mile, but Mo Quality should appreciate the class relief and projected pace scenario in the 1 1/8-mile Withers. I like his chances on the front end with Kendrick Carmouche.

A short but top-heavy field of five will square off the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, and it will be interesting to see whether #2 Citizen Bull (6-5) makes the early lead given he’s drawn inside of #3 Rodriguez (7-5) and #4 Clock Tower (10-1). The two-year-old champion led at every pole winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and American Pharoah (G1), but he did it easily without pressure while setting moderate fractions. The pace should be more legitimate Saturday, and I like Rodriguez stepping up in competition off a brilliant two-turn maiden win on Jan. 4.

AA: 

A pair of Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep races are slated for Saturday and Sunday, beginning with the seven-furlong Forward Gal (G3) at Gulfstream, where Brad Cox has entered both #7 Eclatant (9-2), the third-place finisher in the Golden Rod (G2) at Churchill Downs, and #11 Stunner (4-1), winner of the one-mile Tempted S. at Belmont at the Big A. Cox's barn is loaded with Oaks contenders at the moment and Saturday will help determine whether Eclatant and Stunner are also worthy of keeping an eye on along the Kentucky Oaks trail. The pair will go up against #9 Rojo Rita (2-1), a 16-length winner on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream on Nov. 15 for trainer Saffie Joseph, who had a career day at Gulfstream last Saturday during Pegasus World Cup Day. Joseph also has #2 The Queens M G (5-1) in the field. The Thousand Words three-year-old got off to a hot start as a two-year-old, winning on debut at Keeneland while in a different trainer's barn, then succeeding in the Schuylerville S. and Adirondack S. (G3) at Saratoga before finishing fifth in the Spinaway (G3) to Immersive and third to Stunner in the Tempted to finish her two-year-old season. She'll return off a more than three-month layoff here and will pick up Irad Ortiz Jr., who was successful pairing up with Joseph last week aboard White Abarrio in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and Mystic Lake in the Inside Information (G2).

One other Kentucky Oaks prep will take place on Sunday in the Las Virgenes (G3) at Santa Anita. The short field is highlighted by Bob Baffert filly Tenma, who beat next-out Santa Ynez winner Look Forward by 1 3/4 lengths in the 1 1/16-mile Starlet (G2) last out at Los Alamitos. Tenma, by Nyquist, is 3-for-4 lifetime but her lone loss came in her only start at Santa Anita when she was a 10-length third to stablemate Non Compliant in the 1 1/16-mile Oak Leaf (G2) on Oct. 5.