The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Feb. 21-23 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali debate their best bets and fades at Turfway Park for the Cincinnati Trophy S. and John Battaglia Memorial on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks (G1) and Derby (G1), respectively. Plus, they look at Oaklawn Park's Sunday card featuring the Rebel (G2) and Honeybee (G3), and more.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#3 Mikealicious (7-2) in Saturday’s sixth race at Turfway Park. The four-year-old gelding discovered his niche at longer distances last year and appears to be building toward a top performance over Turfway’s Tapeta, recording an encouraging third last out. Mike Maker and Luan Machado are winning at a 42% clip over the last two months (10-for-24) and with a pair of confirmed early types entered, a good setup is expected for the stalker. Mikealicious also has appeal as a single in a race many will spread for horizontal wagers.

Ashley Anderson: 

#3 First Mission (5-1) in the 1 1/16-mile Razorback (G3) at Oaklawn on Sunday. The Brad Cox trainee will make his five-year-old debut coming off a more than six-month layoff, but he's won off lengthy rest in the past and has recorded several sharp workouts leading up to the Razorback, including a bullet five-furlong work on Feb. 9 at Fair Grounds. The son of Street Sense was last seen finishing a 10-length seventh in the 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1) over a sloppy Saratoga track in August, but he's cutting back to a distance from which he's 4-for-4, including victories in the Alysheba (G2) last May and the Lexington (G3) back in April of 2023. Regular rider Florent Geroux will retain the mount and is winning at a 35% clip paired with Cox over the last two months. If I can get 5-1 on the Godolphin homebred off a layoff, I will take it. He also won his lone previous start at Oaklawn in the 1 1/8-mile Essex (G3) back in March of last year.

A longshot worth considering in an exacta is #4 Alexander Helios (10-1) to the outside of First Mission. The Cairo Prince five-year-old will make his third start since returning to the barn of Saffie Joseph and is eligible to improve second start off the layoff. Two back, he had the lead in the stretch of a 1 1/8-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill but was bested at the furlong ground and beaten to second by Hit Show. Last out, he cut back to today's distance and drew clear to win by 2 1/2 lengths at Gulfstream Park with a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed figure. He'll keep Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle, and Joseph is a 43% winner at Oaklawn this meet.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#3 Justique (5-2) in Sunday’s Carousel S. at Oaklawn Park. A juvenile stakes winner in 2022, the five-year-old mare switched to turf after a series of setbacks to open her 2023 season, and she finally broke an 11-race losing streak when dropping down to face conditioned allowance foes on the main track at Fair Grounds in early January. But that win came over a suspect group of rivals and Justique will need to run faster here. And it’s fair to question whether six furlongs is her best distance. She appears to be working well, but I won’t take a short price on Justique in this spot.

AA: 

#8 Girl Math (3-1) in the one-mile Cincinnati Trophy S., a Kentucky Oaks prep, on Friday at Turfway Park. The three-year-old by McKinzie broke her maiden last out, in her fifth career start, when cutting back to a mile after finishing second in two previous tries at 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs. The Rudy Brisset trainee was successful in her first start on Turfway's all-weather and gamely held off today's rival Bracelet to prevail by three-quarters of a length in the maiden special weight. Girl Math earned an 81 BRIS figure for the effort and will now move up in class off a nearly two-month layoff. Flavien Prat will regain the mount and is winning at a 25% rate with routes. But I will look elsewhere in the deep field of three-year-old fillies, which drew #6 Somethinabouther (5-1), a graded stakes winner dropping in class off a three-month layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh. The Mendelssohn filly got up late to win the 1 1/16-mile Mazarine (G3) on Woodbine's all-weather last out to score her second win from five starts. Her 87 BRIS figure last out is the highest last-out speed rating in the field. The runner-up in the Mazarine is an intriguing longshot as well. #12 Foxtastic (10-1) broke her maiden two back in a 6 1/2-furlong stakes on Presque Isle Downs' all-weather, then set the early pace and had the lead in the stretch before giving way 70 yards from the finish line in the 1 1/16-mile test. The cutback in distance may benefit the Josie Carroll trainee, who will pick up Rafael Hernandez, a 14% winner this meet.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

#1 Muhimma (7-5) will return to action in Sunday’s Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn and while there’s speed to her outside in the starting gate, the Brad Cox-trained filly remains the one to beat. Muhimma pushed fast fractions when opening her racing career when opening her career with a pair of romping sprint wins at Churchill Downs last fall, and she showed her affinity for longer distances when recording a fine win in the Demoiselle (G2) in early December, turning the 1 1/8-mile distance about a half-second faster than the Remsen (G2) winner one race earlier. She will look to establish a cruising rhythm on the front end with Florent Geroux, and I’m excited to see whether the undefeated daughter of Munnings will carry her form forward at age three.

AA: 

The world's richest race, the $20 million Saudi Cup, will be held Feb. 22 in Riyadh and will feature a lone U.S.-trained representative, #8 Rattle N Roll (8-1), a multiple graded stakes winner riding a two-win streak, including a three-quarter-length victory in the 1 1/8-mile Clark (G2) in November and a rallying 4 3/4-length win in the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup (G3) at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in January. White Abarrio, Locked, Soul Of An Angel, and Sierra Leone are among notable U.S.-based runners who will not be present at the Saudi Cup on Saturday morning. That leaves the Kenny McPeek-trained Rattle N Roll to face a deep field that includes #9 Romantic Warrior (5-2), one of the top racehorses in the world, who will need to prove himself on the dirt after producing a decorated resume on turf, and morning-line favorite #5 Forever Young (8-5), who finished third by a head in the 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) and just scored his first Grade 1 win in December in the Tokyo Daishoten (G1). Other notables include #2 Defunded (30-1), previously in the barn of Bob Baffert before transferring to Abdulaziz Meshref, and #10 Ushba Tesoro (12-1), beaten a head by Senor Buscador in last year's Saudi Cup.

Rebel (G2) pick: 

JS:

#5 Madaket Road (9-2). There’s speed signed on for the late-running colt and Madaket Road figures to improve upon a third in his first two-turn attempt, the Feb. 1 Robert B. Lewis (G3), which had little-to-no pace. I’m not convinced about Madaket Road’s threshold for longer distances this spring (he’s out of a Smoke Glacken mare), but the 1 1/16-mile Rebel trip looks ideal for the son of Quality Road and Bob Baffert is an eight-time winner of the Rebel.

AA: 

#4 Hypnus (10-1). The debut maiden winner for Kenny McPeek impressed at today's distance over a sloppy Fair Grounds track back in January when he rallied from off the pace under Brian Hernandez Jr. to beat eight rivals in a final time of 1:46.33, which ended up being faster than Disco Time's winning Lecomte (G3) time at the same distance later on the card. Hypnus recorded a 92 BRIS figure in his debut with a 97 Late Pace rating and earned a 116 Class Rating. The Into Mischief three-year-old is out of the Uncle Mo mare Dream Tree, who won the Starlet (G1), Las Virgenes (G2), and Prioress (G2) during her career, and has been working sharply ahead of his stakes debut.

John Battaglia pick: 

JS:

#7 Baby Max (6-1). A two-turn maiden winner the second time out at Churchill Downs in late November, Baby Max was too far back early and lost ground traveling wide when switching to Turfway’s Tapeta in early December, recording a head second versus allowance rivals. He moved forward off that initial experience, recording a sharp 2 1/2-length score in the one-mile Leonatus S. on Jan. 18, and Baby Max was flattered when runner-up Chunk of Gold came back to finish second in the Risen Star (G2) last weekend. From a stamina-laced female family, the improving colt figures to appreciate the added ground in the Battaglia, and I would love to get a 6-1 morning line price on Baby Max.

AA: 

Going for a Kenny McPeek double on the Road to the Kentucky Derby this weekend with #12 Maximum Promise (8-1) in the John Battaglia. The Maximum Security colt out of a Scat Daddy mare won at second asking in his first try on dirt when turning in a 14-length romp in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park in August. Last out, Maximum Promise jumped up to graded stakes company and finished a 2 1/2-length fifth in the Lecomte with a 90 Late Pace rating when breaking from an inside post. He'll break from an outside post today but has the early speed to overcome a potentially unfavorable spot in the starting gate. He's eligible to improve second start off the layoff for McPeek and Luan Machado (18% winner at Turfway) will pick up the mount.