The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Feb. 8 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali go over their best bets and fades at Tampa Bay Downs, including the Sam F. Davis, a Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) prep. Plus, they look at racing at Oaklawn Park and Turfway Park.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#11 Gun Runner Charlie (8-1) in the eighth race at Oaklawn Park Saturday. Bet down to 6-1 in his Dec. 14 career debut, the three-year-old gelding experienced a rough break and troubled trip, but he rallied well to be fifth in an 11-horse field. The winner, Brodeur, came back to capture a two-turn allowance in late January, and Gun Runner Charlie looks poised for a much-improved effort second time out. New trainer Peter Miller (22% win second start) will add blinkers and Lasix, and Gun Runner Charlie figures to show speed with Ramon Vasquez taking the mount.

Ashley Anderson: 

#2 Treaty of Rome (6-1) in the Sam F. Davis, Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs on Saturday. The Uncle Mo colt is making his fourth career start coming off a neck second in the one-mile Mucho Macho Man S. and will benefit from the added distance. He finished third on debut in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Belmont at the Big A in October of last year, then graduated upon stretching out to a route for the first time in a one-mile maiden special weight at Aqueduct in December. He ran second to Guns Loaded last out at Gulfstream and posted a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed figure. He’ll retain Dylan Davis for the second straight start and put in a good work at Payson Park on Feb. 1 ahead of his second stakes effort. Trainer Chad Brown has been red hot at Tampa, with a 27-11-6-4 record this meet, and he’s a 26% winner in non-graded stakes. The Sam F. Davis drew a competitive field, but I like the potential price I’m getting on a well-bred colt owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith, and Michael Tabor of Coolmore.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#6 Owen Almighty (2-1) in Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Runner-up in the Iroquois (G3) at a one-turn mile, Owen Almighty did not run straight when returning in the seven-furlong Pasco on Jan. 11 and wound up being disqualified after proving best by a length. By champion sprinter Speightstown, Owen Almighty will add blinkers and be part of the pace once again, but he’ll have to deal with John Hancock, who showed high speed leading all the way at six furlongs in his lone start for Brad Cox, and other potential speed. Brian Lynch has kept Owen Almighty well-spotted in one-turn races, but the juvenile sprint stakes winner faces a tricky stretch out to two turns at short odds. I will try to beat him in the Davis.

AA: 

#5 Velociraptor (3-1) in Race 8, a six-furlong maiden special weight at Oaklawn. The four-year-old gelding is 0-for-2 with a fourth on debut at today’s distance back in August of 2024 at Gulfstream, followed by a third in a six-furlong maiden special weight over a sloppy Churchill track. Both times Velociraptor set the early pace but either weakened or was overtaken in the stretch. He’s shipping to Oaklawn for the first time for trainer Mark Casse, who’s a 31% winner this meet, and put in a sharp workout Jan. 28 but I will play against the son of Accelerate, who is coming off a more than four-month layoff. 

The eighth race at Oaklawn drew a field of 11, and I see a couple of runners who intrigue me here, including two first-time starters from Steve Asmussen’s barn. #7 Iron Dome (10-1) is an Into Mischief colt who was purchased for $500,000 as a yearling, and his dam, by Speightstown, has produced five winners from five starters, including a stakes winner. Erik Asmussen is named to ride and has posted a 10-3-1-1 record over the last seven days. I also like stablemate #10 Rango (15-1), a Bolt d’Oro colt who has posted sharp workouts leading up to his debut. The three-year-old is out of an Empire Maker dam with a winner from one starter, plus Bolt d’Oro boasts a 16% win percentage with his first-time starters. Keith Asmussen has the mount on the CJ Stables color bearer.

Others in the field who can upset Velociraptor include #11 Gun Runner Charlie (8-1) in his first start with Lasix while making his debut for the barn of Peter Miller (a 23% winner this meet). #6 Bon Temps (15-1) is a class-dropper for trainer D. Wayne Lukas who ran in the Southwest (G3) last out and should benefit from the cutback in distance, and #3 Stomp (7-2) posted a bullet work at Oaklawn on Jan. 29 ahead of his debut for trainer Ron Moquett. Tyler Gaffalione will get the call as well.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Along with Davis and Suncoast S. for Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks contenders, Tampa will offer a pair of intriguing maiden races for three-year-olds on the 12-race program. 

Held over a mile and 40 yards, the seventh race has attracted #8 McCorvey (3-1), a $1 million yearling purchase by Curlin who is out of two-time champion and $4.6 million earner Songbird. Bill Mott trains the bay colt, who shows a recent half-mile bullet work at Payson Park in preparation, and Junior Alvarado rides. McCorvey will face nine rivals including #3 Weekendsandwhiskey (3-1), a first-time starter by Justify for Todd Pletcher who sold $850,000 as a yearling.

Chad Brown, who has sent a lot of good ones to Tampa to break their maiden, has a pair of three-year-old fillies entered in the 10th race, a 1 1/16-mile turf test for fillies. #9 Portfolio Duration (9-5), an English-bred daughter of Night of Thunder who sold for more than $190,000 at Tattersalls, will make her first start with Flavien Prat and her stablemate, #7 Lying by Omission (2-1), looks like a serious player with Irad Ortiz Jr. following a runner-up finish on Tampa’s turf.

AA: 

Oaklawn will host a Grade 3 on Saturday in Race 9, the Bayakoa S. (G3) for fillies and mares four years old and up. The headliner is #6 Loved (9-5), a six-year-old mare by Medaglia d’Oro who’s coming off a 3 3/4-length win in the 1 1/8-mile Falls City (G3) over a muddy track at Churchill. She’s cutting back slightly in distance and is 2-for-5 racing 8 1/2 furlongs. Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione is aboard for trainer Brendan Walsh, who’s a 15% winner with shippers, and Loved put in a sharp workout at Turfway Park on Feb. 1.

The Godolphin homebred will look to score her second graded stakes victory and will face a small but mighty field that includes #1 Corningstone (2-1), who moves up in class off a win in the 1 1/16-mile Pippin S. at Oaklawn. The five-year-old is eligible to improve third start off the layoff for trainer Kenny McPeek and will keep Julien Leparoux in the saddle.

Other last-out winners in the field include #3 Little Jamie (4-1), a Collected four-year-old who moves up in class off her win in the 1 1/16-mile Wayward Lass S. at Tampa Bay Downs, and #2 Wild Bout Hilary (10-1), who won a stakes at Fair Grounds last out at today’s distance. #5 Free Like a Girl (3-1) is also in the field. She finished fourth in her last two starts but may improve returning to Oaklawn, where she has a win and a third from three starts.