The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Jan. 18 [VIDEO]

Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali discuss their best bets and fades at Fair Grounds, Aqueduct, Gulfstream Park, and Turfway Park, plus they give out their top pick in the Grade 3 Lecomte and Silverbulletday S., prep races along the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks, respectively.

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully: 

#13 Nanda Dea (5-1) in the Marie G. Krantz Memorial S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Nacho Correas has had success with South American imports, most notably winning the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) with multiple Group 1 Argentinean heroine Blue Prize, and he’s been bullish on multiple Group 1 Argentinean star Nanda Dea since she joined his barn last year. After a 10-month layoff, Nanda Dea turned in an impressive performance at Keeneland in mid-October, defeating a stakes-quality allowance field by open lengths over less-than-firm ground, and the turf figures to have some give to it in the Krantz Memorial. Given the turn of foot she displayed, it’s no surprise to see Jose Ortiz opt for Nanda Dea over Stir Crazy, who exits a win in the Dec. 21 Blushing K.D. at Fair Grounds, and I like Nanda Dea to make it two straight wins in the U.S.

Ashley Anderson:

#11 Wadsworth (5-1) in Race 10 at Fair Grounds, the 1 1/16-mile Colonel E. R. Bradley S. on the turf. The Quality Road gelding will make his third start off the layoff and will return to turf after weakening to finish fourth in the 1 1/16-mile Prairie Bayou S. on Turfway's all-weather as the 1.37-1 post-time favorite. Two back, the Brad Cox trainee had the lead in the stretch but got bested by a head in a one-mile allowance optional claimer on Churchill's turf. Ahead of Saturday's start, Wadsworth has been working sharply at Fair Grounds and has never finished worse than second in five career tries on grass. Florent Geroux will retain the mount and has been winning at a 30% clip at Fair Grounds. He's also a 28% winner paired with Cox over the last two months. Wadsworth's last-out 93 Brisnet Speed figure is tied for the highest last-race speed rating among the field, and Cox is a 32% winner with beaten favorites. The Godolphin homebred also boasts the highest Brisnet Prime Power rating (162.9), which is nearly 10 points higher than the next-closest runner, morning-line favorite #7 Gigante (7-2). I'll back the multiple stakes winner at a price in his first start at Fair Grounds.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#1 Hit Show (5-2) in the Louisiana (G3) at Fair Grounds. A grinding type who needed the length of the stretch to get up in the 1 1/8-mile Lukas Classic (G2) last fall, Hit Show is not a middle-distance specialist, recording four of his last five wins at nine furlongs, and the 1 1/16-mile Louisiana serves as a prep race for lucrative overseas races at longer distances in the coming months. I don’t expect Hit Show to be cranked for his best off the layoff and prefer the chances of others, including #5 Skinner (9-2), who missed most of 2024 but appears back on track after snapping a seven-race losing skein in the Native Diver (G3) last out. 

AA: 

#3 Simply Joking (3-1) in the Silverbulletday S., Race 9 at Fair Grounds on Saturday. The Practical Joke filly impressed on debut when she got up to win by a neck in the six-furlong Letellier Memorial S. and clocked a 91 BRIS figure. She'll stretch out to a route for the first time in the one-mile and 70-yard stakes and has put in a pair of sharp workouts. But I will stand against the morning-line favorite first time stretching out. Trainer Whit Beckman is doing well at Fair Grounds (36% winner this meet), but I will back a more experienced runner who is proven running longer. #2 Golden Gamble (7-2) romped to a nine-length maiden win at second asking when racing 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, then rallied late to finish second as the favorite in the Untapable S. at today's distance. Brian Hernandez will retain the mount and strikes at a 20% clip with routes. He's also winning at a 22% rate at Fair Grounds this meet, while McPeek is a 20% winner in non-graded stakes. #8 Bless the Broken (10-1) is a longshot to consider as well if connections opt for the Silverbulletday over the Busanda S. at Aqueduct on Saturday. The Laoban filly may benefit from the lack of early speed signed on and could go for the early lead here. She was beaten a head two back racing 1 1/16 miles, then finished a distant seventh in the 1 1/8-mile Demoiselle (G2). She'll drop in class in the Untapable and posted a bullet work on Jan. 9.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager opens Friday, and I will back #32 Rodriguez (20-1) following a spectacular maiden win in his two-turn debut that netted a 97 Brisnet Speed rating. One of nine individual interests for Bob Baffert, Rodriguez will not attract as much attention as stablemates Barnes and Citizen Bull, but the Authentic colt appears very promising. 

I will keep tabs on #12 East Avenue (15-1), who is targeting the Feb. 15 Risen Star (G2) and offers some appeal if his odds don’t drop from the morning line.

AA: 

The road to the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, a Kentucky Derby prep worth 100 points to the winner, will kick off on Saturday with the one-mile Leonatus S. at Turfway Park. #4 Banks (2-1), for trainer Joe Sharp, headlines an eight-horse field. The Outwork gelding started his career in the barn of Brittany Russell and came home a four-length second in a six-furlong maiden claimer at Keeneland on Oct. 20 of last year. Claimed out of that race, he stretched out to a mile on Turfway's all-weather in his first start for Sharp and dominated by 5 1/4 lengths. Last out, he won at the same distance in an allowance optional claimer at the same track and beat runner-up Hard as Life, who re-opposes him in the Leonatus, by two lengths. Adam Beschizza will stay in the saddle and is 3-for-9 paired with Sharp over the last 60 days with a +1.17 ROI. Sharp has been hot this meet, with a 31% win rate, and he's a 20% winner with horses that won their last race.

Among Banks' top challengers are #6 Can't Deny It and #7 Church and State (3-1). The former won on debut at Fair Grounds in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight on turf and clocked an 86 BRIS figure, the highest last race speed rating among the field. Trainer Larry Rivelli is a 42% winner at Turfway this meet, and Gerardo Corrales (42% winner paired with Rivelli over the last two months) will pick up the mount. Church and State is unbeaten from two starts on Woodbine's all-weather track and won last out at a mile and 70 yards in an allowance optional claimer. He'll move up in class and stick with rider Rafael Hernandez.

The Leonatus S. serves as the local prep for the John Battaglia Memorial on Feb. 22 at Turfway. The 1 1/16-mile race will award Derby points to the top five finishers on a 20-10-6-4-2 sliding scale.

Top pick in Lecomte

JS:

With a number of early types signed on, #7 Calling Card (12-1) will look to make a significant impact in his stakes debut. The New York-bred son of Complexity performed decently in a pair of turf starts before switching turf to dirt with a smashing 17-length win from off the pace at Aqueduct in mid-November, defeating restricted maiden rivals at a one-turn mile. Calling Card was too far back behind slow opening fractions at Oaklawn Park last out, closing for third behind well-regarded Sandman, but the pace scenario projects to be much different in the Lecomte. He's a candidate to keep progressing for Mike Maker, and I will tab Calling Card for an upset with Frankie Dettori picking up the mount.  

AA: 

#11 Disco Time (9-2) for Brad Cox. The Not This Time colt is unbeaten from two starts and will try two turns for the first time after prevailing by 3 1/2 lengths in a one-turn, one-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs on Nov. 30. Cox is a 30% winner at Fair Grounds and a 24% winner with horses coming off layoffs of 46 to 90 days. High-percentage jockey Florent Geroux is aboard, and Disco Time recorded a solid work on Jan. 4 at Fair Grounds in preparation for his stakes debut. I'll back the Juddmonte homebred over morning-line favorite Built, who got away with setting a slow early pace in the 1 1/16-mile Gun Runner S. on Dec. 21. He'll be pushed for the early lead on Saturday with a ton of speed signed on. Disco Time can win either on the early lead or sitting just off the early pacesetter, and I will back him at a slightly better price.

Top pick in Silverbulletday

JS:

The pace scenario does not appear favorable for #2 Golden Gamble (7-2), who exits a rallying second in the Untapable, but she's eligible to race closer in the Silverbulletday. She showed more tactical ability impressively breaking her maiden the second time out last fall, and Golden Gamble may have more to offer in her second start back for Kenny McPeek.  

AA: 

#2 Golden Gamble (7-2), a late runner with a strong closing kick for trainer Kenny McPeek. The Laoban filly came home a 2 1/4-length second as the favorite last out in the Untapable S., launching a late rally that earned her a 97 Late Pace rating. Two back, she turned in a stunning nine-length victory in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs; the runner-up Girl Math won her next start at a mile at Turfway Park. I expect Golden Gamble to improve in her second stakes effort with Brian Hernandez aboard and will look for a better trip breaking from an inside post.