The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Jan. 6 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali examine a number of stakes this weekend, including races at Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, Turfway, Gulfstream, and Aqueduct. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

#5 Oeuvre (7-2) in the Nelson J. Menard Memorial S., the ninth race at Fair Grounds. The Shackleford mare will return to turf after finishing a distant third in the one-mile Chilukki (G3) on Churchill's main track in November. The five-year-old won her two recent turf starts, including a one-mile allowance at Keeneland and a 6 1/2-furlong allowance at Kentucky Downs. Trainer Chris Block is a 22% winner at Fair Grounds this meet, and rider Jareth Loveberry won with Oeuvre in her two previous starts at the track, both at today's distance of about 5 1/2 furlongs. Oeuvre is also 6-for-10 on turf for her career and 4-for-6 at today's distance, and she won last year's edition of the Nelson J. Menard by two lengths. I'll back her over the morning line favorite, recent stakes winner #3 Carimba (3-1).

James Scully:

#10 Escapologist (7-2) in the eighth race at Oaklawn Park Saturday. A turf maiden winner last March, the Kenny McPeek-trained colt was freshened four months this summer after recording a neck second to next-out Pegasus S. winner Salute the Stars in a Churchill Downs dirt allowance in mid-May. Escapologist returned to dirt this fall with a pair of convincing wins, including an allowance triumph at Keeneland over Grand Aspen, who finished a head second in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) last Saturday, and Escapologist will cut back to a preferred 1 1/16-mile distance following a head second in a nine-furlong allowance to Commandperformance, who was exiting a head second to First Mission. With a perfect setup expected in a speed-laden field, Escapologist looks poised to keep moving forward in his four-year-old opener.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA: 

#5 Ice Orchid (9-5) in Race 9, the Pippin S., at Oaklawn. The Super Saver mare has failed as the favorite in her last two, including most recently in the one-mile Mistletoe S., where she was beaten three-quarters of a length to Butterbean, who re-opposes here. The five-year-old will stretch back out to 1 1/16 miles, a distance from which she's 2-for-8, but more concerning is her record at Oaklawn, at 1-for-8. Ice Orchid last visited the winner's circle at Oaklawn in February of 2022 and is 0-for-5 at the track since. I like Butterbean coming off her recent stakes win for Kenny McPeek (28% winner this meet) and will back her here in the Mistletoe rematch.

JS:

#4 Bromley (5-2) in the seventh race at Turfway Park Saturday. Opened his racing career with a pair of sharp wins in late 2022, but Bromley went winless from five starts in 2023. I do not like how he’s lost ground in the stretch of all three starts since returning from a 6 1/2-month layoff in mid-September and will wait to see an encouraging performance before backing Bromley at short odds.

What Else Is Worth Noting

AA:

Turfway Park will feature the Turfway Prevue S. for three-year-olds on Saturday, with #1 Vote No (9-5) returning to all-weather after finishing a length third to Can Group in the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland. The sophomore gelding opened as the 9-5 morning line favorite among a small but competitive field of seven, but I'm not a fan of his draw on the rail, and rider Gerardo Corrales has struggled this meet, going 8-for-92 at Turfway. I'm more interested in #3 Joe Sheisty (2-1) after he romped to a 12-length win in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Turfway on Dec. 21. The gelding flashed a 97 Brisnet Speed figure, a huge jump from the 66 he recorded two back on Dec. 8, and he'll retain jockey Alex Archard, who's red hot (11-3-1-1) over the last seven days.

I'll play Joe Sheisty in an exacta with #4 Quarrymen (5-1), who was a length second to Let's Go Mark last out in his first try on all-weather. The Brad Cox trainee put in a sharp workout ahead of his second start at Turfway, and rider Axel Concepcion is 4-for-12 with five second-place finishes when paired with Cox over the last two weeks.

JS:

Saturday’s Jerome S. is the first of four Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifiers at Aqueduct this year, offering points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale to the top five finishers, and only five were entered for the one-mile test. The next points race for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) will be the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 20.

In the Jerome, Drum Roll Please will attempt to flatter Dornoch and Sierra Leone following a third in the Remsen (G2), but I think #4 El Grande O is the one to beat. I liked the progress he made for Linda Rice last season, recording a sharp win in the restricted Sleepy Hollow S. at Aqueduct in late October, and the speedy colt has run well under fast and wet conditions. The one-turn distance also favors him. El Grande O won’t offer much value in the short field, but I look for a big effort on the front end.