The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for July 20 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali argue their best bets and fades for Haskell Day at Monmouth Park and Saratoga, and look at Del Mar and Woodbine's weekend cards. Ashley and James give their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#7 Arro Smash (4-1) in the eighth race at Saratoga Saturday. A convincing maiden winner at Saratoga last summer, the Arrogate colt went on to conclude his sophomore campaign with an allowance score in late November, and Arro Smash returned from a six-month layoff with a fine second in a mid-May allowance under the Twin Spires, threatening to win in upper stretch before being outfinished by the extremely promising Champlin. Arro Smash equaled his career-best Brisnet Speed rating (94), registering the top last-out number in Saturday’s field, and the gelding figures to have more to offer off the encouraging comebacker. His affinity for Saratoga adds to the appeal.

Ashley Anderson:

#8 Pounce (8-1) in the Lake George S. (G3), the 10th race at Saratoga on Saturday. The one-mile turf event drew a field of 10, plus three also-eligibles, and the morning-line favorite #2 Oversubscribed (5-2) is entering off a dominant non-graded stakes win, but I see a chance to back a longer shot here. Pounce is a Mark Casse trainee who impressed in her turf debut with a 2 1/4-length gate-to-wire score in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance optional claimer at Gulfstream in February. She followed up her win with a narrow victory in the one-mile Herecomesthebride (G3) at the same track, then shipped to Keeneland and weakened to finish 11th of 12th in the Appalachian (G2) over turf labeled good. Last out, she set the early pace but faded to finish third in the Penn Oaks. The Lookin At Lucky filly is eligible to improve off a layoff of nearly two months, and she'll pick up rider Dylan Davis, who's 16-3-0-3 to start the meet at Saratoga. Pounce also posted a bullet four-furlong workout on July 5 at Saratoga, so I expect her to come out sharp and ready here. I'll back her at the price over deep closer Oversubscribed, who's moving up in class and getting a rider switch here.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#1 Factor Analysis (7-5) in the 12th race at Saratoga Saturday. I like playing against these types, he’s been second or third in all four starts at short odds, and the plodder must make up ground in a field lacking speed. I also don’t like his entry mate, #1A Take Your Seats, who must draw in from the also-eligible list, following a disappointing seventh. Several others in the field, including #3 Artempus (8-1), #5 El Rezeen (9-2), and #10 De La Cruz (5-1), offer more appeal.

AA:

#3 Safalow's Mission (2-1) is dropping down multiple class levels for Linda Rice in a seven-furlong claimer for non-winners of two races. The five-year-old posted a 79 Brisnet Speed figure last out, the highest last race speed rating among the field, but the gelding is 1-for-20 lifetime and has not won in 14 starts. He faced open company for the second time in his career last out and finished a four-length third at today's distance at Aqueduct. Safalow's Mission nearly got a win four back when rallying late to finish third by a neck in a one-mile state-restricted allowance and tracked the early pace in that start, where two next-out winners finished first and second. But with his long losing streak, I will look to play elsewhere, especially with his trainer and jockey, Jose Lezcano, a bit cold to start the meet.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Excited to see #2 Happy Is a Choice (7-2) and #5 Champlin (4-1) square off in Sunday’s Jeff Hall Memorial at Ellis Park. Churchill Downs (G1) runner-up #1 Here Mi Song, fourth most recently in the Aristides S., is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, but I’m more interested in up-and-coming types in the sprint division. Champlin enters with a 3-for-4 record, winning the aforementioned allowance race at Churchill Downs by 2 1/4 lengths in mid-May, and I like his potential for Greg Foley. The four-year-old will get back to action after being scratched from a June 22 allowance due to kicking the stall in the paddock. Happy Is a Choice impressively won that event, registering a career-best 99 Brisnet Speed rating for the 2 1/4-length decision, and the four-year-old appears to be coming to hand for John Ortiz, winning three of his last four outings. I give both a chance to make a serious impact in graded sprints this fall.

AA:

Woodbine will feature a pair of graded stakes — the Grade 2 Connaught Cup and Grade 3 Trillium S. — in addition to the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Tiara series, and the Plate Trial S., a prep for the $1 million King's Plate on Aug. 17.

Mark Casse won the last two Plate Trial S., most recently with Paramount Prince in 2023, who won the 2023 King's Plate and is co-owned by Gary Barber, the owner of Casse's 2-5 morning line shot in this year's Plate Trial, #5 My Boy Prince. The Cairo Prince colt jumped on my radar last year when he romped to a six-length win in a five-furlong maiden special weight on Woodbine's all-weather track, then crushed 10 rivals by 14 lengths in the 6 1/2-furlong Simcoe S. He faced Grade 1 company in his next start, his turf debut, in the Summer S. (G1) and finished second, then won the Cup and Saucer S. on the grass before closing out his two-year-old season with a third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

My Boy Prince opened his three-year-old season with an eighth in the Palisades at Keeneland, then switched back to all-weather and has since been dominant, winning by a combined 11 1/4 lengths in a pair of non-graded stakes. He's never raced at the Plate Trial distance of 1 1/8 miles, and this is his first two-turn start on Tapeta, but he has a good chance to go gate to wire here. The only other pacesetter type in the field is #1 Beautiful Sky (20-1), a filly who is cross-entered as an also-eligible in the Woodbine Oaks. Casse is optimistic My Boy Prince will handle the distance as long as he settles. He'll keep rider Sahin Civaci, who is 4-for-4 aboard the colt and will look for his third straight win of the season with My Boy Prince.

Who is your Haskell (G1) pick

JS:

#7 Mindframe (9-5). He got a little tired late but performed admirably to be a close second in his stakes debut, the 1 1/4-mile Belmont (G1). Along with being a good candidate for further progression, Mindframe should appreciate the cutback to 1 1/8 miles.

AA:

While not a great price, #7 Mindframe (9-5) has looked excellent in three career starts, his lone loss coming by half a length in his stakes debut, the 1 1/4-mile Belmont (G1), where he gained a lead in the stretch but allowed Dornoch to re-rally to beat him at the wire. The Todd Pletcher trainee posted a 106 BRIS figure on debut, when he won by 13 lengths in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream, then earned a 97 BRIS figure when dominating by 7 1/2 lengths in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer on the Kentucky Derby undercard in May. Last out, he recorded a 105 BRIS figure, with a triple-digit E2 rating. He looked green in his stakes debut when coming down the stretch, but I expect him to look much improved in his second Grade 1 attempt and will look for the three-year-old to get the victory with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.