The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Nov. 22-23 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali confer about their best bets and fades at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#8 Underhill’s Tab (5-1) in the sixth race at Churchill Downs on Saturday. Liked the progress the gelding made in a pair of Churchill starts this spring meet, winning his second versus entry-level allowance rivals at seven furlongs three starts, and he followed with a fast effort (96 Brisnet Speed rating) at this level at Ellis. Underhill’s Tab tried two turns and an all-weather track last out, recording an even seventh in the Presque Isle Downs Mile, and I like the cut back and return to Churchill (two-time winner under the Twin Spires). He ran well off the freshening earlier this year and is well-drawn toward the outside for a stalk-and-pounce trip with Christian Torres.

Ashley Anderson:

#11 Agoo (4-1) in the ninth race at Churchill, a six-furlong allowance for three-year-olds and up. The Munnings three-year-old had a poor showing at Saratoga three back in a seven-furlong allowance, then was gelded in late July and returned to Churchill on Sept. 14, when he went gate to wire to win a six-furlong claimer with a career-best 98 Brisnet Speed figure. Last out, Agoo raced at the same six-furlong distance in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland and came home a neck second to graded stakes winner World Record. Agoo is eligible to improve third start off the layoff on Saturday, and trainer Whit Beckman has been red hot at Churchill, with a 22% win percentage this meet and a 5-2-1-0 mark the last 14 days. Ricardo Santana Jr. will also have the mount for the third straight start while breaking from the far outside.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#3 Dashman (5-2) in the Commonwealth Turf (G3) at Churchill Saturday. A maiden winner at Ellis three back, Brian Lynch-trained colt followed with an entry-level allowance win at Kentucky Downs and exits a fourth to Deterministic in the Jockey Club Derby (G3) at Aqueduct last month. He remains a promising type, but Dashman faces an imposing challenge against #8 Herchee (3-1) and #9 Evade (7-2), who performed well recently against the top three-year-old turf horse in the nation, Brilliant Berti.

AA:

#4 Two Sharp (2-1) in the one-mile Chilukki (G3) at Churchill. The three-year-old filly is 2-for-4 lifetime while racing between six and 6 1/2 furlongs and will stretch out to a route distance here for the first time while adding blinkers. The Phil Bauer trainee has a ton of speed and should get the early lead, but her price is too short for me in her second graded stakes effort and first start at a mile. Two Sharp's two victories came against small fields, but she finished a distant second on debut when facing 10 rivals and came home a neck second in the six-furlong Prioress (G3) when challenging seven rivals.

The lone three-year-old in the field, Two Sharp will confront Blame filly #2 Pigalle (9-2), the recent Groupie Doll winner who is 5-for-7 from today's distance, as well as graded stakes winner #3 Taxed (4-1), graded stakes-placed #6 Positano Sunset (10-1), and Brendan Walsh pupil #8 Fancy (6-1), an intriguing dark horse in the field. The Justify four-year-old posted a 100 Brisnet Speed figure two back when a neck second to Pigalle in the Groupie Doll, and triumphed in her next start going gate to wire in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. The filly owns a 6-2-3-0 record at a mile and a 4-2-1-0 record at Churchill, and she'll keep rider Tyler Gaffalione, a 23% winner this meet.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

A pair of intriguing two-year-old maiden special weights bookend the Late Pick 5 at Churchill Saturday. In the seventh race, Steve Asmussen will send out #2 Yinzer (6-1), a $1 million Saratoga yearling purchase who is by Twirling Candy. The bay colt hails from a Tapit mare who is a sibling to three graded stakes winners, including Grade 1 juvenile winner Mana Bhavan and 2013 San Felipe (G2) victor Hear the Ghost. #7 Sea Vista (5-2), a fast-closing second for Brad Cox in his Saratoga debut, is also entered in the 6 1/2-furlong race.

Fillies will square off over 1 1/16 miles in the 11th race, and #4 Seraphia (3-1) will try to improve upon a rallying third to next-out winner Amarth at Keeneland. A $1 million Saratoga yearling purchase for Asmussen, the Gun Runner filly may relish the stretch out to two turns in her second outing. #5 Calamity (4-1), a first-time starter for Cox, is another intriguing daughter of Gun Runner in the field.

Friday’s opening day card at Fair Grounds includes the $100,000 Joseph R. Peluso Memorial for two-year-olds at six furlongs, and #7 Voila Magic (9-5) will make his second attempt for Asmussen following an eye-catching romp over open maiden special weight rivals at Keeneland, and Jose Ortiz retains the mount on the gray son of Violence. In Saturday’s filly counterpart, the $100,000 Donovan L. Ferguson Memorial, #2 Secret Faith (2-5) will seek her fourth consecutive stakes triumph following wins at Lone Star Park, Evangeline Downs, and Delta Downs.

AA:

Fair Grounds will kick off its 153rd racing season on Friday with a pair of non-graded stakes and four more on Saturday's card. The 76-day meet will span through Sunday, March 23, and features nearly $9 million in combined stakes purses, highlighted by the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 22. This season, the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Oaks-winning trainer Kenny McPeek will have an increased presence at the New Orleans-based racetrack, along with annual top trainers Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen. The winning rider of the 2024 Kentucky Derby and Oaks, Brian Hernandez Jr., will also compete during the meet, as well as 2017 Eclipse Award winner for Outstanding Jockey Jose Ortiz.

Also on Friday, over in Florida, Todd Pletcher will debut a pair of three-year-old fillies: Taylor Swifter, a $725,000 purchase by American Pharoah, and Rumours Have It, a Tapit three-year-old out of Medaglia d'Oro mare Songbird. The dam of Rumours Have It was named 2015 champion two-year-old filly and 2016 champion three-year-old filly following victories in the 2015 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and later the Alabama (G1), Cotillion (G1), and Ogden Phipps (G1). Songbird also placed second by a nose to Beholder in the Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) and came home second in the Personal Ensign (G1), finishing her career with a 15-13-2-0 mark.