The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Nov. 23-26 [Video]

Racing analysts Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali look at a packed week of racing over Thanksgiving week at Churchill Downs and Fair Grounds. Ashley and James offer their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

Ashley Anderson:

#7 Super Ocho (5-1) in the Thanksgiving Classic, the ninth race at Fair Grounds on Thursday. The five-year-old is the lone true pacesetter among the field, and early speed types are winning at a high rate in six-furlong sprints at Fair Grounds. Super Ocho is 0-for-5 at today's distance but he just romped to a 6 1/2-length victory in a five-furlong allowance at Delta Downs on Oct. 26 when switching back to rider Vicente Del-Cid, a 23% winner in sprints who is 3-for-6 paired with trainer Amador Sanchez over the last two months. Super Ocho won his only other start with Del-Cid, a five-furlong allowance optional claimer at Delta Downs in January, and won by more than five lengths going gate to wire. I'll back the pairing of Del-Cid and Super Ocho over morning line favorite #9 Miles Ahead (2-1), who hasn't won in six starts.

James Scully:

#1 Stop the Press (10-1) in the eighth race at Churchill Downs Saturday. Throw out the first effort, the well-meant youngster showed up for his career debut, a salty maiden special weight going about seven furlongs at Keeneland on Oct. 26, with back-to-back gate works in tow (almost always a negative sign) and was unprepared for the break, getting roughed up as he bumped repeatedly with rivals. The Uncle Mo colt offered a mild rally to split the field in sixth after the frustrating start, and it served as the perfect learning experience. After being bet down to 5-2 favoritism, Stop the Press will offer more value this time, and I like the added ground for the Shug McGaughey trainee.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

AA: 

#2 Train to Artemus (3-1) in the 5 1/2-furlong Pan Zareta S. at Fair Grounds on Saturday. The five-year-old mare will drop in class off a one-length third in the Grade 2 Franklin S. at Keeneland, but she is 0-for-5 in her last five starts, and she is making her first start for trainer John Ennis, who's 0-for-17 with horses making their first start with the trainer. Ennis is also 0-for-26 in non-graded stakes, and Train to Artemus has not posted an official workout since her last start for Kelly Breen. I'll look elsewhere and like #5 Carimba (7-2), who's 4-for-7 from today's distance on turf. #9 Redefined (8-1) is also an intriguing longshot for Michelle Lovell after the three-year-old filly won an allowance at Churchill by more than three lengths in her second start since transferring to Lovell's barn.

JS:

#2 First Mission (3-1) in the Clark (G2) at Churchill Downs Friday. A game winner of the Lexington (G3) last April, First Mission was entered in the Preakness (G1) but had to scratch due to an injury. He returned with an inauspicious performance at 2-5 in a conditioned allowance at Keeneland on Oct. 14, determinedly getting up in the final strides in a race that was up for grabs, with the top four finishers separated by less than a half-length on the wire. First Mission’s Brisnet Speed rating dropped 10 points (93) from his previous start, and that’s not the kind of effort I like to see from a short-priced favorite who must step up in class and distance for his next outing. I like others better in the Clark.

What Else Is Worth Noting

AA: 

In addition to the Kentucky Jockey Club on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs will host the Grade 2 Golden Rod for two-year-old fillies as part of the Road to the Kentucky Oaks on Saturday. #7 West Sunset (2-1) for Brad Cox and #8 Thorpedo Anna (8-5) for Kenny McPeek are both unbeaten and will likely take a lot of money, but I like 5-1 shot #5 Central Avenue, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of an A.P. Indy mare. The filly won on debut in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Colonial Downs, then finished second in the one-mile Frizette (G1) to Just F Y I, who came back to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) in November. The added distance will suit Central Avenue, and I'll take her at the price.

JS:

Four of the eight runners in Saturday’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs have competed in stakes, and I’ve been underwhelmed by their performances. That leads me to focus on those runners making their stakes debut, and I’m intrigued by #2 Honor Marie (8-1), who gamely got up to break his maiden at six furlongs and exits a closing second at seven furlongs vs allowance rivals in the slop. I like the increasing Brisnet Speed and Late Pace numbers for the Honor Code colt and expect him to show more stretching out to two turns. Last-out maiden scorer #3 Real Men Violin and recent allowance winner #6 Stretch Ride will also be included in any multi-race wagers.