The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets, and Fades for Oct. 25-27 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali chew over their best bets and fades at Churchill Downs, Belmont at the Big A, and Keeneland. Ashley and James provide their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#11 Windy Bay (9-2) in the fourth race at Keeneland Saturday. A smart winner over $30,000 starter allowance foes at Ellis two back, Windy Bay will make her third start off the freshening after facing better at Churchill Downs, finishing fifth behind Deck of Cards (winner of seven of last eight). Windy Bay stretches back out to a favorable 1 1/16-mile distance, recording a good third versus $40,000 at Keeneland last fall and entry-level allowance win at Oaklawn in previous starts at the trip. And her tactical ability should play well in a field lacking speed, allowing Francisco Arrieta to avoid losing ground into the first turn. I like her chances on the front end.

Ashley Anderson:

#2 Messier (7-2) in the Forty Niner (G3), the eighth race at Belmont at the Big A on Saturday. The 2022 Kentucky Derby (G1) also-ran made his first start for the barn of Rick Dutrow back in January 2024 and came home second in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Laurel, where he held a four-length lead at the top of the stretch before he was caught by the eventual winner. Next out, Messier stretched out to 1 1/8 miles in the Excelsior S. and crossed the wire first by a length but was disqualified to second for interference inside the 3/16ths pole. He returned to the winner's circle last out in the one-mile Westchester (G3) on May 3 at Aqueduct, where he held on to win by three-quarters of a length and recorded a 103 Brisnet Speed figure, the highest last-race speed rating among the field. Messier will return off a more than five-month layoff here, but his recent workouts at Belmont are sharp, and Dutrow is a 14% winner off layoffs of 90 or more days and a 24% winner with a positive ROI in graded stakes. Jose Gomez picked up the mount two starts back and is back in the saddle today. Messier's last-out mile time is just shy of six seconds faster than the winning mile time of morning-line favorite #7 Coastal Mission (5-2) last out in the Parx Dirt Mile, and based on Messier's fractions last race (23.26, 46.16, 1:09.80, 1:21.80), I expect him to go gate to wire or sit right off the early pacesetter before drawing away in the Forty Niner. 

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#5 Tiztastic (3-1) in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs Sunday. By freshman sire Tiz the Law, Tiztastic didn’t show much in his first start on dirt, switching to turf to break his maiden over handicap rivals and winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile S. Trainer Steve Asmussen will give the dark bay colt another shot on the main track here. But I can’t get enthused about his chances at short odds. I’m keen on #10 Sovereignty (5-1) for Bill Mott, playing against Tiztastic and projected short-price rivals #4 Sandman (9-2) and #8 Comes a Time (7-2) in the Road to the Kentucky Derby series qualifier.

AA:

#10 Trust Fund Philly (3-1) in the six-furlong Myrtlewood S., the eighth race at Keeneland on Friday. The Peter Eurton trainee won on debut at Churchill in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over a sloppy track on Sept. 27 and clocked an 85 BRIS figure on debut. The Liam's Map two-year-old will move up in class to face stakes company for the first time, and a number of her rivals not only have stakes experience, but a handful already boast stakes victories on their resume, including #4 White Sands (4-1) and #12 Long Neck Paula (10-1), both out of Wesley Ward's barn; Saffie Joseph pupil #8 Andrea (6-1); and #2 Glee (8-1) for Steve Asmussen. On top of that, Trust Fund Philly's last-out speed figure is lower than the top dirt speed figure of three horses in the field and is tied with one other. The one factor that could benefit Trust Fund Philly is her run style as a late runner, as she's going up against a group of 11 rivals who tend to race on or near the lead. However, the morning-line favorite's lone prior start does not give me enough reason to feel confident in backing her against her stakes-experienced rivals, and I will look elsewhere in the deep field of sophomore fillies.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Saturday’s closing day card at Keeneland features three stakes, including the $350,000 Fayette (G2) for older horses at 1 1/8 miles and the $200,000 Bowman Mill for two-year-olds at six furlongs, but I will focus on the $600,000 Bryan Station (G3) for three-year-olds at a mile on turf. #6 Brilliant Berti (7-2) will get another opportunity to square off against #11 Trikari (2-1), who defeated his rival in their lone meeting this summer, the Secretariat (G2) at Colonial Downs. Since breaking his maiden the second time out on Kentucky Derby week, Brilliant Berti has captured four of five starts, the lone setback being a runner-up in the Secretariat in which Trikari owned a tactical advantage in a slow-paced race. A case can be made that Brilliant Berti has improved off the loss, proving much the best in a commanding one-length score in the Gun Runner S. last out, and he rates as a candidate to keep showing more in the Bryan Station. Brilliant Berti is trained by Cherie DeVaux, who has the four-year-old More Than Looks making his third start of the season in the Nov. 2 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and appears loaded for the mile turf division in 2025.

AA:

Churchill Downs will kick off its 26-day fall meet on Sunday with the 11-race "Stars of Tomorrow I" card featuring all juveniles. The Street Sense and Rags to Riches are the marquee features, with the former awarding the winner 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and the latter doling out points toward the Kentucky Oaks (G1) leaderboard. The Stars of Tomorrow program began in 2005 and has been a springboard for a number of prolific horses in the past. They include Horse of the Year champions Gun Runner and Rachel Alexandra; Kentucky Derby heroes Super Saver, Mandaloun, and Mystik Dan; plus Kentucky Oaks winners Rachel Alexandra, Believe You Can, Monomoy Girl, Secret Oath, Pretty Mischievous, and Thorpedo Anna. 

Aside from the two stakes on Sunday, the card includes a one-mile allowance and eight maiden special weights, and the next potential star Thoroughbred could come from any one of those races.