The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Sept. 21 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully and Darren Zoccali talk their best bets and fades for Churchill Downs stakes action and Parx’s biggest day. James provides his thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin’s opinions in the on-camera portion!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#8 Unmatched Wisdom (8-1) in Saturday’s $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (G1) at Parx. The dark bay colt didn’t make his career debut until mid-May, and after recording a pair of convincing maiden and entry-level allowance wins, Unmatched Wisdom stepped up to capture the restricted Curlin S. at Saratoga, registering a strong 99 Brisnet Speed rating for the one-length decision. Unmatched Wisdom didn’t fire from off a moderate pace in the Travers (G1), checking in seventh, but he remains the one to beat from a Speed rating standpoint in the Pennsylvania Derby, registering superior numbers to morning line favorite Dragoon Guard. That rival figures to face much more pressure up front, and I will look for Unmatched Wisdom to prove best from just off the pace with Flavien Prat.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#12 Miss Justify (3-1) in Saturday’s Seneca Overnight S. at Churchill Downs. I’m a little suspicious of her win in the one-mile Wilton S. two back, with the runner-up losing her next start at short odds versus entry-level allowance and the third-placer finishing last in a listed stakes, and her well-beaten fourth in the Alabama (G1) last out looks better on paper than it actually was. Miss Justify may prefer one-turn distances at this point in her career and I prefer her stablemate, #9 Life Talk (5-1), and others in the 1 1/16-mile race over the morning line favorite. 

WHAT ELSE IS WORTH NOTING

JS:

Over the last five years, champions Covfefe and Echo Zulu have captured the Dogwood (G3) at Churchill Downs, and Saturday’s edition will serve as a possible Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) prep for My Mane Squeeze, the 5-2 morning line favorite among nine three-year-old fillies. After capturing the Eight Belles (G2) over a muddy track at Churchill Downs this spring, My Mane Squeeze wasn’t a serious factor in her next three outings and I’m not keen on the 84 Brisnet Speed rating she earned finishing a non-threatening second in the Charles Town Oaks (G2) last out. #9 Halina’s Forte (9-2) is the only one of 11 runners in the Eight Belles to win since (it’s been a negative key race), recording an allowance score at Churchill Downs and a victory most recently in the off-the-turf Galaway S. at Saratoga, and I like her recent form much better than My Mane Squeeze.

Along with the Dogwood and Seneca, Churchill will also host the Harrods Creek for three-year-olds at seven furlongs and the Bourbon Flight for three-year-olds at 1 3/16 miles. The Harrods Creek marks the stakes debut for #6 Illuminare (2-1), an exciting colt for Todd Pletcher who has opened his racing career with a pair of smart wins. Ohio Derby (G3) winner #3 Batten Down (6-5) will try to rebound in the Bourbon Flight following a fifth in the Travers.