The Jury: Expert Picks, Bets and Fades for Sept. 28-29 [Video]

Racing analysts James Scully, Ashley Anderson, and Darin Zoccali deliberate about their best bets and fades for Churchill Downs, Belmont at the Big A, and Santa Anita. Ashley and James give their thoughts in the written portion below. Be sure to check out Darin's opinions in our on-camera portion as well!

Best Bet for Weekend Racing

James Scully:

#2 Scotland (7-2) in Saturday’s Vosburgh (G3) at Aqueduct. After winning last year’s Curlin in his stakes debut, Scotland was exposed versus better competition at two-turn distances in a pair of starts. He cut back to sprint distances when returning from a seven-month layoff this spring, delivering a good second to Happy Is a Choice in a stakes-quality allowance at Churchill Downs and romping over a fine group of optional claiming foes at Saratoga in his last two outings. His Brisnet Speed numbers are on par with his main rivals, and I like the chestnut gelding’s progression and developing into potentially a top-quality sprinter for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. Scotland will look to keep advancing with his first graded win. 

Ashley Anderson:

#1 Johnny Podres (7-2) in the 6 1/2-furlong Eddie D. (G2), the eighth race at Santa Anita on the Hillside Turf course. The seven-year-old gelding faces 10 rivals, including #11 Big Invasion (3-1), who comes off a win in a non-graded stakes at Saratoga and was a neck second to Nobals in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) last season.

A late closer for trainer Librado Barocio, Johnny Podres last won four back in the 6 1/2-furlong Siren Lure S. at Santa Anita, where he beat today's rival First Peace by half a length. That same rival got the better of Johnny Podres next out in the 6 1/2-furlong Daytona (G3), where First Peace finished second, 1 1/2 lengths ahead of Johnny Podres in fourth. However, the latter endured a wide trip in that start when breaking from post 9, and the rail post should help him today at Santa Anita, where he's 19-4-5-5 for his career. Johnny Podres is also 11-2-2-4 from today's distance, and his last-out 96 Brisnet Speed figure is the highest last-race speed rating among the field. In a field loaded with speed, I will back the late runner at a price.

Top Fade for Weekend Racing

JS:

#7 Bourbon Boss (7-2) in Saturday’s 11th race at Churchill Downs. Riley Mott has tried every surface with the three-year-old colt, racing him over dirt, turf, and synthetics, and Bourbon Boss has logged three seconds and two thirds from six starts. He hasn’t been close in his last three placings and his lone unplaced effort came on a sloppy track, which is the same condition expected at Churchill Downs Saturday evening. 

AA:

#6 Hit Show (2-1) in the Lukas Classic (G2), the 10th race at Churchill on Saturday. The Brad Cox runner is returning off a win in the 1 1/16-mile West Virginia Governor's S. (G3) and earned a 101 Brisnet Speed figure, but he faced fairly light competition that day when prevailing by half a length. Two back, he raced at today's distance of 1 1/8 miles and finished seventh of 10 in the Cornhusker S. (G3) at Prairie Meadows, and he's 2-for-6 overall from the distance, with his most recent win at 1 1/8 miles coming against allowance company at Churchill three back.

The four-year-old by Candy Ride will make his first start in 55 days and put in a pair of sharp workouts at Churchill, but I see a couple of runners who will be tough for him to beat. Based on Prime Power rankings, Hit Show also ranks fourth, behind graded stakes winner Disarm, horse-for-the-course Rattle N Roll, and Warrior Johny, who posted a 111 BRIS figure three back when winning at today's distance in an allowance optional claimer at Saratoga.

What Else Is Worth Noting

JS:

Saturday’s $1 million California Crown (G1) at Santa Anita drew an intriguing field of seven, highlighted by Met Mile (G1) and Pegasus World Cup (G1) winner National Treasure, who is targeting the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1), according to Bob Baffert. National Treasure is one of four accomplished older horses entered, along with Saudi Cup (G1) winner and Pegasus runner-up Senor Buscador, Santa Anita H. (G1) victor Newgate, and last-out Philip Iselin (G3) winner Subsanador. I will go a different direction with #5 Muth (2-1), who was forced to the sidelines after winning the Arkansas Derby (G1) in late March and returned with a victory in the Sept. 1 Shared Belief at Del Mar. I expect him to move forward off the performance and favor his tactical ability in a field lacking pace, projecting Muth to flash to the front and lead all the way.

AA:

A total of six Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" events will take place this weekend, and Churchill Downs will host one of them, with the Ack Ack (G3) offering a bid to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). #7 Saudi Crown (4-5) will look to make a second appearance at the Breeders' Cup after finishing far back in 10th in the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) last season. The Brad Cox runner began cutting back in distance following that start and has raced at a mile in his last two, winning last out in a non-graded stakes at Ellis Park. The four-year-old by Always Dreaming should get the early lead on Saturday, especially with the connections of #4 Mufasa (4-1) opting to race at Belmont at the Big A. However, Saudi Crown could get a strong challenge from #1 Tumbarumba (6-1), a horse for the course who is 4-2-1-1 at Churchill and 4-2-2-0 from today's distance. 

The Brian Lynch trainee is coming off a length second to today's rival Cagliostro in the Hanshin S. at Churchill and may improve off a layoff of almost three months. Cagliostro also may be a threat if he can get off to a better start here. Last out, the Upstart colt stumbled badly out of the gate in the Forego (G1) but recovered to finish fourth to Breeders' Cup Sprint contender Mullikin. A better start today could bode well for the Cherie DeVaux pupil, who flashed good late speed in his Hanshin win with a 100 Late Pace rating.