The Smartest Bet in Horse Racing: 4 Strategies for Success

What is the smartest bet in horse racing? There are so many options – win bets, show bets, exactas, trifectas, Pick 3s, Pick 6s, and more. How do you determine which is the smartest bet to play?

The answer is both incredibly complex and surprisingly simple.

Why making a smart bet in horse racing can be complicated

The smartest horse racing bet can vary from one race to the next. If you’re certain a particular horse will win but have no idea which runners will finish second, third, and fourth, a win bet might be the smartest play. 

If you’re confident you can predict the top three finishers of a race in order, a trifecta is the way to go. Do you believe you can pick four winners in a row? Maybe you need to play a Pick 4.

First, you must handicap races and determine which horses you like best. Only then can you decide which bet(s) might be the smartest to play.

4 strategies to simplify making smart bets in horse racing

Handicapping aside, there are four strategies you can employ to simplify the process of making smart bets in horse racing.

1. Compare the expected payoff to the chances of winning

Ask yourself the following question: Is the prospective payoff higher than warranted for the odds of winning? 

Maybe you’re thinking of betting a first-time starter conditioned by a trainer who wins at a 33% rate with debuting runners. A 33% win chance is equivalent to 2-1 odds (two losses for every one win), so if the horse offers 4-1 odds – and there aren’t any obvious reasons to think the horse lacks talent – that’s a smart bet in the long run.

Most of the time, you’ll have to analyze many factors to estimate the chances of any given horse winning, and you’ll guesstimate prospective payoffs for complex wagers like trifectas and Pick 3s. But if conservative estimates suggest the payoff will be higher than warranted for the odds of winning, you can feel confident you’re placing a smart bet.

2. Keep an eye on pool sizes

How much money has been wagered on the race you’re betting? If you’re playing a superfecta and there’s only $400 in the pool, a winning ticket won’t pay more than $400, no matter how unpredictable the outcome. 

By betting into large pools with tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, you at least have a better chance to cash giant payoffs if you correctly identify winning longshots.

3. Search for low takeout rates

The takeout rate is the amount of money subtracted from a betting pool before payoffs are calculated in order to pay taxes and fund the sport of horse racing. 

If $100,000 is bet into a Pick 6 pool with a 25% takeout rate, that leaves $75,000 to be dispersed among winning bettors. If the takeout rate is only 15%, that leaves $85,000 to be paid out to winning bettors. 

Low takeout rates lead to higher payoffs, so you’re more likely to make a smart bet when playing low-takeout wagers.

4. Consider betting on days with carryovers

Sometimes, difficult wagers go unsolved. If no one hits a Pick 6, for example, a portion of the pool may carry over to the next racing day. Assuming it’s not a jackpot-style carryover (which pays out only if a unique winning ticket is sold), this money is added to the next day’s Pick 6 pool and effectively lowers the takeout rate for bettors playing on the day of the carryover. 

With all that extra money up for grabs, wagers with carryovers can be a smart bet, provided you believe the payoff will be in line with your chances of winning.

By keeping these four strategies in mind, you’ll be well on your way to successfully placing smart horse racing bets. Good luck!