The Wagering Trends That Could Stop Carpe Diem, Dortmund, Materiality, and Tencendur From Winning the Kentucky Derby

Fifty-five horses in the past 23 Kentucky Derbys have gone to post having never been favored in any of their previous races, and only one of those horses—I’ll Have Another in 2012—went on to win the roses, which is one more winner from the much shorter list of horses who have always been favored.

In that same period, only nine horses went postward after having been favored in all their previous career starts with the best finishes being third-place finishes by favorite Indian Charlie in 1998 and Revolutionary in 2013. Interestingly, Todd Pletcher has trained three of the last six, and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Carpe Diem gives him one of the two in this year’s race with Santa Anita Derby winner Dortmund being the other one.

Category:	Starters:	Wins:	Places:	Shows:
Never favored	55	1	2	1
Always favored	9	0	0	3

Pletcher also trains Florida Derby winner Materiality, who is one of the two horses in this year’s Derby who has never been favored with TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial Stakes runner-up Tencendur the other.

That there have only been nine horses favored in every start to contest the Kentucky Derby in the past 23 years but two this year and 55 never favored in that time period and only two this year speaks to the quality of this group.