Thoroughbred racing: Oaklawn stakes spot plays for April 11

Due to the effects of the COVID-19 outbreak, just two Thoroughbred stakes races are scheduled to be run in the U.S. this weekend, and both will take place at Oaklawn Park.

The $150,000 Oaklawn Mile for older horses and the $200,000 Oaklawn S. for 3-year-olds will provide a dose of high-class racing action for bettors to play Saturday.

Let’s see if we can celebrate the occasion with a couple winning tickets.

Race 9: Oaklawn Mile (5:43 p.m. ET)

#14 Improbable burned a lot of money, with six losses at short prices last year, but the son of City Zip was repeatedly compromised by inside posts in competitive fields. Improbable can be slow into stride and seems uncomfortable racing inside and behind horses. He’s been more effective when able to race outside of rivals, so drawing post 14 in the Oaklawn Mile should afford this Bob Baffert trainee every opportunity to work out a winning trip.

Returning from a five-month layoff is a question mark, but Improbable has been cranking out fast workouts week after week, and Baffert is skilled at preparing horses for peak efforts off works alone.

Let’s key Improbable in the trifecta, while emphasizing #2 Mr. Money and #3 Tom’s d’Etat for the remaining slots. The former won a quartet of Grade 3 events last year, before he finished seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). The latter was a dominant winner of the Nov. 29 Clark Handicap (G1) and brings six straight triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation.

$1.50 trifecta: 14 with 2,3 with 2,3,4,7,8,12 ($15)
$1.50 trifecta: 2,3 with 14 with 2,3,4,7,8,12 ($15)

Race 11: Oaklawn S. (6:48 p.m. ET)

Assuming Improbable comes through in the Oaklawn Mile, Baffert will have a chance to nab a stakes double with #4 Thousand Words.

The winner of the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and Robert B. Lewis (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Thousand Words will surely be favored to claim Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile test, even though the $1 million yearling purchase faded to finish a distant fourth in the San Felipe (G2) one month ago.

The Oaklawn S. is an easier spot, and Thousand Words should certainly finish in the money, but I don’t think he is unbeatable at a short price. The late-running #12 Farmington Road, fourth in the first division of the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, picks up hot jockey Martin Garcia and adds blinkers for trainer Todd Pletcher, who has gone 8-for-18 (44%) at Oaklawn since the start of 2018. And with rain in the forecast, Smarty Jones S. winner #13 Gold Street could be a threat, considering he is unbeaten and unchallenged in three starts over wet tracks.

We’ll key these two with Thousand Words in the exacta.

$10 exacta: 4 with 12,13 ($20)
$5 exacta: 12,13 with 4 ($10)

Good luck!