Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: 30-1 longshot at Colonial Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Aug. 22, at Colonial Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis, including a 30-1 longshot.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Harness 15% Trifecta Boost: Receive a 15% boost (up to $25 per day) on winning trifecta wagers in any eligible race at all harness tracks every Thursday through Saturday in July and August.
• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on any Thursday in July to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Del Mar 25% Double Down: Hit two daily double wagers at Del Mar to receive a 25% boost on all your winning daily double wagers for the day at Del Mar.
• Summer Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at selected tracks from July 11 through Sept. 2.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Colonial Downs: Race 1: maiden special weight (six furlongs on dirt, 1:30 p.m. ET)

#1 Caprichosainfront (30-1) is a major longshot on the morning line, perhaps because trainer Monica McGoey has never saddled a winning first-time starter. But McGoey hasn’t sent out that many first-time starters in the grand scheme of things — 26, to be exact.

Perhaps Caprichosainfront can become McGoey’s first debut winner. A well-bred daughter of Belmont (G1) winner Tiz the Law out of a mare by Munnings, Caprichosainfront has put together an eye-catching work tab highlighted by five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 and a bullet three furlongs from the starting gate in :35 2/5.

Thursday’s field hasn’t come up particularly tough on paper, so we’ll take a shot betting Caprichosainfront to win and keying her over logical favorite #2 Delicate (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Caprichosainfront (30-1)
• #2 Delicate (5-2)
• #7 Conquerthosewecan (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Caprichosainfront
• $5 Exacta: 1 with 2
  Total: $25

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 1: maiden special weight (five furlongs on dirt, 2:10 p.m. ET)

#3 Jazzole (4-5) finished second in his debut over this track, distance, and class level on July 29, beaten only by next-out allowance winner Large Pour. The form was further flattered when third-place finisher El Rocky returned to win his next start against similar competition.

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen wins at a solid 17% rate with second-time starters, and apprentice jockey Erik Asmussen (who rides with a five-pound weight allowance) is picking up the mount, so Jazzole is a deserving favorite. Let’s try betting him over the first-time starters #1 Amigomeister (9-2) and #4 Tap Tap Tap It In (7-2) in the exacta. 

Selections

• #3 Jazzole (4-5)
• #1 Amigomeister (9-2)
• #4 Tap Tap Tap It In (7-2)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 3 with 1,4 ($30)

Colonial Downs: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (5 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 2:29 p.m. ET)

#8 All the Luck (7-2) ran well in a five-furlong sprint over this track and class level on Aug. 1. After vying for command through a quick opening quarter-mile, the son of two-time champion Lookin At Lucky stayed on to finish second by 2 1/2 lengths, earning an 82 Brisnet Speed rating.

Since the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for Thursday’s conditions is only 78, All the Luck has already run fast enough to visit the winner’s circle. Perhaps the addition of blinkers (a 20% winning move for trainer Maria Bowersock) can seal the deal and land All the Luck a breakthrough victory.

Selections

• #8 All the Luck (7-2)
• #6 Schrader (9-2)
• #4 Volt (5-2)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #8 All the Luck

Good luck!